The CBO just quietly updated its 10-year outlook. The numbers tell a story no one in Washington wants to explain:
1. Interest on the national debt will hit $2.1 trillion/year by 2036 — more than double today's $970 billion. That's not spending on roads, defense, or healthcare. That's just servicing past borrowing.
2. Debt will reach 120% of GDP by 2036. The last time a major reserve currency issuer crossed that threshold without a plan, the plan became inflation.
3. The deficit gap is structural: spending hits 24.4% of GDP while revenue stays at 17.8%. That 6.6-point gap doesn't close with growth — it requires either cuts no one will vote for or monetization no one will admit to.
4. Trust fund insolvency is no longer theoretical. Highway Trust Fund depletes by 2028. Social Security retirement fund by 2032. These aren't projections from doomers — they're from the government's own scorekeeper.
5. Interest costs alone will consume 4.6% of GDP by 2036. For context, the entire defense budget is ~3.5%.
The mechanism is simple: borrow → pay interest → borrow more to cover the interest → repeat. Every debt spiral in history follows this script. The only variable is how long the bond market plays along.
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