NEW:
The Global Risk Matrix shows continued regime improvement with the weighted Z-score advancing from -0.42 to +0.12, remaining in "Recovery" territory but now at the threshold of transitioning into "Risk-On".
The critical shift here is the broadening of risk appetite across multiple dimensions: M2 Global Money Supply strengthened significantly to +1.6 (the highest reading in the entire matrix), China Liquidity Proxy flipped positive to +0.86, and the S&P500 surged to +1.19, confirming that equity risk appetite is now driving the macro regime toward full risk-on conditions.
High Yield Bonds increased to +1.18, maintaining elevated credit market confidence and reinforcing the expansion narrative. However, the structural divergence with traditional safe havens has only partially compressed with Gold at -1.64 inverted continues to significantly outperform BTC on a relative basis, while Treasury Bonds at -1.06 inverted remain defensively bid despite the improving risk environment.
The critical inflection is that USDT Dominance improved from -1.71 to -1.24, and the DXY weakened from -0.85 to -0.21 inverted, suggesting capital is beginning to rotate out of defensive dollar positioning, though not yet aggressively enough to trigger full risk asset acceleration. VIX at +1.15 inverted indicates complacency is building in traditional markets.
TL;DR:
The matrix sits on the edge of a regime shift. If liquidity expansion continues or the Fed signals dovish policy, the +0.12 weighted average could easily cross into "Risk-On" territory, potentially triggering violent rotation into high-beta crypto as late-cycle capital chases leverage. Until that threshold is definitively breached, the recovery remains fragile and directional conviction stays measured.
#Economy #Finance #Markets #Bitcoin #Crypto #DebtCrisis #USDebt #GlobalEconomy #StockMarket #fmi #fed #cme #bitcoin #fiat #btc
