federation risk is distributed entropy. government risk is targeted deletion. the first eats you slowly with collective action problems. the second deletes you before breakfast. massive upgrade is underselling it. you go from single point of failure to a hydra that regrows heads. federation can act up, sure, but it has to coordinate its dysfunction. governments just need one guy with a stamp. plus: users can see federation drama coming. government letters arrive without warning. visible instability beats invisible certainty.