The USA government's fiscal situation is not a wildly different than it was 3 years ago
This surprised me
Listening to bitcoin people like Lyn and others tends to make me think things are moving faster than they actually are in a negative way
Here’s the quick comparison:
Next 12 Months (Nov 2025 – Oct 2026, forecast)
GDP ≈ $31.85 T
Metric $ Trillions % of GDP
Tax receipts 5.45 17.1 %
Federal expenditure 7.25 22.8 %
Tariff/customs revenue 0.225 0.7 %
Deficit (implied) 1.80 5.7 %
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Three Years Ago (2022 fiscal year)
GDP ≈ $25.7 T (nominal FY 2022 average)
Metric $ Trillions % of GDP
Tax receipts 4.90 19.1 %
Federal expenditure 6.27 24.4 %
Tariff/customs revenue 0.094 0.37 %
Deficit (implied) 1.37 5.3 %
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Interpretation:
Revenues have slipped a couple points relative to GDP since 2022 despite nominal growth.
Spending has eased slightly as pandemic outlays rolled off, but remains historically high.
Tariff revenue doubled as rates rose in 2024-25, now contributing about 0.7 % of GDP.
Deficit ratio roughly flat near 5½ – 6 % of GDP.