I think this market might be a bit more retail driven than you give it credit for. There may not be that much new people coming in at the moment but most of the existing Bitcoin is still owned by long term hodlers. These guys are with few exceptions retail, not institutional. LTH's cashing out some of their stack during last summer to autumn materially contributed to dampening and then ending the bull market. This was clearly visible in I.E on chain revived supply. It's also unlikely to be a coincidence that the bear started at exactly the same time as Core v30 releasing, basically to the day. This was the instigating incident of this bear IMO. So in summary I think you're probably correct in what drives institutions, but retail still mattered a lot in this last cycle because they were the marginal seller.