Bitcoin's exchange rate expressed in gold follows a power law trend almost as closely as when expressed in usd (95% vs 96% r-squared)
In past bull/bear cycles bitcoin's behaviour around the power trend line is nearly identical for both measures (green circles).
This relationship has noticeably decoupled in the current cycle:
- the usd exchange rate has risen from long-term support trend line to the power trend line (red circles)
- the gold exchange rate has remained anchored to the long-term support trend line (red circles)
If gold is a more accurate measure of purchasing power, it can be argued bitcoin has not yet entered a bull-run in purchasing power terms
In gold terms, the power law trend line indicates, if a purchasing power bull-run occurs, bitcoin's price may:
- 2x from here to the power trend line (reversion to trend / no bull-run)
- 5x from here to to 1sd-up line (conservative base case bull-run)
- 10x from here to to 2sd-up line (up-side bull-run)
In usd terms, that's an exchange rate of US$500,000 to US$1,000,000 per bitcoin in a bull-run this cycle
This seems unlikely to say the least ... something is broken ... can someone tell me what it is?
npub13l3lyslfzyscrqg8saw4r09y70702s6r025hz52sajqrvdvf88zskh8xc2 npub1rtlqca8r6auyaw5n5h3l5422dm4sry5dzfee4696fqe8s6qgudks7djtfs npub1f4uyypghstsd8l4sxng4ptwzk6awfm3mf9ux0yallfrgkm6mj6es50r407 npub1gkkahxwca30rf2td22u9p3jnmlh79dylgmm2et0kykftle6tdcysj4zden
npub14uhkst639zvc2trx2nlsvk4yqkjp690zk89keytnzgmq2az0qmnq58ez89 npub153xmex42x4chdf757hp3q6zxagykkek7pdgwuwd074964dkyha9s82ryu8
npub1r00t03pv2kxpes5x676xu3j2e0ag8hmmtzv8et0matxg876tnkgsp5sqe8
This relationship has noticeably decoupled in the current cycle:
- the usd exchange rate has risen from long-term support trend line to the power trend line (red circles)
- the gold exchange rate has remained anchored to the long-term support trend line (red circles)
If gold is a more accurate measure of purchasing power, it can be argued bitcoin has not yet entered a bull-run in purchasing power terms
In gold terms, the power law trend line indicates, if a purchasing power bull-run occurs, bitcoin's price may:
- 2x from here to the power trend line (reversion to trend / no bull-run)
- 5x from here to to 1sd-up line (conservative base case bull-run)
- 10x from here to to 2sd-up line (up-side bull-run)
In usd terms, that's an exchange rate of US$500,000 to US$1,000,000 per bitcoin in a bull-run this cycle
This seems unlikely to say the least ... something is broken ... can someone tell me what it is?
npub13l3lyslfzyscrqg8saw4r09y70702s6r025hz52sajqrvdvf88zskh8xc2 npub1rtlqca8r6auyaw5n5h3l5422dm4sry5dzfee4696fqe8s6qgudks7djtfs npub1f4uyypghstsd8l4sxng4ptwzk6awfm3mf9ux0yallfrgkm6mj6es50r407 npub1gkkahxwca30rf2td22u9p3jnmlh79dylgmm2et0kykftle6tdcysj4zden
npub14uhkst639zvc2trx2nlsvk4yqkjp690zk89keytnzgmq2az0qmnq58ez89 npub153xmex42x4chdf757hp3q6zxagykkek7pdgwuwd074964dkyha9s82ryu8
npub1r00t03pv2kxpes5x676xu3j2e0ag8hmmtzv8et0matxg876tnkgsp5sqe8
