Here is the one thing I appreciate the most about Nostr. Authenticity. With the rarest of exceptions, everyone here is their truest self. I pray this continues.

When did the Art of the Debate turn into a screaming match? Is it just impossible today to have a difference of opinion, share those opinions in a respectful manner and then leave without there being any animosity?

Ministry of Finance did a very decent job threading the needle. Global commentators will more than likely lament feverishly on there being absolutely no details of an immediate fiscal response. Yes, there was some detail on local governments and how they can go about supporting the property market. And on that front the expectation is for a significant increase in local bond issuance quota. Where proceeds of the bond issuance will be directed is uncertain. Debt restructuring versus economic supportive policies. Beyond that, however, it was a process of sticking to the script. Attention will now turn to the NPC standing committee which is set to meet nearer the end of this month.

Ministry of Finance TL:DR If needed #China will expand the fiscal deficit. Note that there is no commitment of additional fiscal spending. Additionally, local governments can use “special bond” proceeds to buy unsold property. That’s about all that was included in terms of a fiscal response.

All eyes are on the Chinese MoF tomorrow morning. What is worrisome are the expectations making the rounds throughout today. This here, the exhibit shown, is especially worrisome. Going into the press conference and expecting a laundry list of deliverables centered on households is, I’m sorry, ludicrous. It was already problematic that top line fiscal support projections were suggesting upwards of Rmb10tr. It’ll be a fraction of that. Rmb2tr in the rosiest scenario. The primary aim, and what should be looked for, is the 2025 fiscal roadmap. That is what I am expecting to be laid out. Whether it meets local investors concerns is all that matters. And with that a GN good people of Nostr

How is it that everyone has become a #China expert over the past two weeks. The sheer degree of errant perspectives has boggled my mind. Allow me to share with you one very important takeaway from all my time living in the Middle Kingdom. The longer you live and/or study China, the less you realize you understand. Vent over.

Oof….. I guess he has a sense of humor at least.

And here we go. The Ministry of Finance is now set to enter the public conversation. With the just announced press conference set for this Saturday morning (an official work day in China), the entirety of focus will be on what, and to what degree, the MoF will provide fiscal support to the economy. The only certainty at this time is that everyone following the process will be weighing in with expectations or, perhaps expectation management. There have been very large numbers floated around for several weeks now in the public discourse, so it might be next to impossible for the MoF to overcome the market’s hurdle rate. My outlook remains that of policy which will underwhelm. Taking on the levels of fiscal support as is being discussed throughout traditional business media outlets simply doesn’t correspond with how economic policy has been conducted over the past two years. Systemic-wide deleveraging, in my opinion, remains a higher priority. I will just leave it there. There will be enough commentary for all of us to sift through in the coming days. @xiangcai check out the markets now that this news is out.

There’s been a slow burning Civil War taking place inside the Communist Part of China (CPC) for the better part of the past decade. Xi and his team have been working aggressively to break from historic institutional norms. One primary area is how the economy is financed. Anglo-American corporate finance and government spending are being forced to the sidelines. It is for this very reason, in my humble opinion, why (1) the Ministry of Finance continues to remain absent from any form of public commentary on stimulus. Additional government financing isn’t what Xi and his team see as ideal. (2) Choosing against the fiscal response is also why virtually all traditional business media outlets continue to push aggressively for that exact fiscal response. They don’t know any better. Keynes 101.

Didn’t expect there to be any new fiscal stimulus announced and that is what the NDRC confirmed. CSI 300 now up 5% and slipping fast. Hong Kong is down 8%

A fat 11% up at the market open here in Shanghai.

Today’s focus in #China will be on whether there will actually be any materially new fiscal support provided by Beijing policy makers. For all the blaring headlines, the support provided up to this point has been monetary. That’s it. We should have some better visibility on the issue once the NDRC does its press conferences in two hours’ time.

China is back online after a weeklong National Day Holiday. Should be a very interesting day ahead of us here.

The NDRC has now announced plans for a press conference on Tuesday morning. A somewhat unexpected move, although possibly a step up from the Ministry of Finance in that the NDRC - as is typical in its role - could provide clarity in terms of government plans to support the economy. I’d expect the focus to be on the property sector. Whatever the mode, a continued stream of communications will almost certainly keep the animal spirits for equities for in overdrive.

Hey @jb55 Just a quiet word of thanks for bringing Nostr to the world. Love you man. Namaste

I am so confused. Came back from dinner and found my phone had blown up with a link I was included to. Thank you of course. And if anyone has questions about #China feel free to hit me up here. View quoted note →

Became a grandfather today. And this here, this little girl, is exactly why all of us are here!!!

When a country decides to keep the IMF in check you can guarantee that the American Treasury department will make it an issue. @gladstein

Starting the morning off strong. @James Lavish share with your group when doing the weekly podcast

Looks to be another insane day in Asia. Japan reeling from last weeks LDP decision on a new PM China getting ready for - who the hell knows. On the plus side, there is just today. We kick off a weeklong holiday starting tomorrow.