Ok, for those who have seen this content below, and with the greatest respect to @HODL, this information is patently false. Moreover, this trope - all of what Peterson claims - has been promlagated by more podcast hosts and guest than I can recall. I jaywalk all the time and there’s been no consequence and there’s certainly been no deduction of any cash from my bank account. And having your face plastered in public? Are you serious. First off, there aren’t that number of screens and whatever screens are out there are a blaze with commercials and marketing. Here is what I can share. If you do happen to share “sensitive” content on any of the various social media platforms you will receive a message to refrain from any such future commentary. If you continue, then your social media account will be suspended. I believe that this has happened more than a few times in the US and, well, just look at the UK at the moment. When it comes to third party commentary on China, my recommendation is to always question whether than commentator has been to China at any point in the recent past. I’ve found that most people haven’t been to China in at least six years, pre-Covid times. What we have is an ecosystem where errant tropes, that so beautifully align with hardened biases, are picked up and then repeated over and over again to the point that, well, it is all taken as truth. My suggestion to everyone is to tread skeptically when consuming content on China by individuals who, themselves, are only passing on second hand information. Do the same too, have a raised eyebrow with people like myself. Just don’t take what you see as gospel. The only way to know with the utmost confidence is to get on a plane and come to China to see for yourself. Make up your own mind. View quoted note →

China Morning Missive This, the Taiwan issue, is where the concept of a fourth communique comes into play. It’s also high time that the traditional media outlets finally began connecting what have been very obvious dots. With each passing day, those at the levers of power in DC are coming to the realization that China has a stranglehold on the “Grand Bargain” negotiations. Frankly, this has been the dynamic ever since both parties slapped triple digits tariffs on each other. No matter the overwhelming evidence, the Beltway simply ignored this reality. You can even see this on display when Sec Bessent noted China had made “aggressive asks” during the recent Madrid round of talks. Taiwan was undoubtedly one of those asks. The same, too, for a lifting of certain tariffs and export controls. The American side sought to hold firm on its positions. The Chinese side would have just shrugged and played for time with the complete knowledge that there is nothing the Trump team can actually do. Access to rare earths remain a sticking point. Now there’s daily handwringing over China’s refusal to purchase soybeans. Understand that these are just the tip of the spear. There are dozens of pressure points China can apply. American capitulation is simply a matter of time. But China isn’t just asking for well choreographed speeches and platitudes. This is where a fourth communique comes into play. American administrations come and go and the policies of one can be reversed by another. Beijing knows this all too well and for any material agreement to be reached will require a codified (fourth communique) agreement. The politics for the Trump team are abysmal. Then again, so is a cascade of farmer bankruptcies not to mention a host of other second and third order effects. Pick your poison, right? What this WSJ piece does highlight is (finally) a recognition of just how strong China’s position is in these negotiations. The end game is know. All that remains is how Washington will end up spinning the outcome. https://www.wsj.com/world/china/trump-xi-talks-china-taiwan-8ed82d1b?st=o3Hnq4&reflink=article_copyURL_share

China Morning Missive Enough already. America needs to return to its competitive roots. A clarion call must be made. Last night I stumble upon a few reviews of the latest Xiaomi 17-series smartphones. They are, unquestionably, a better value and experience than Apple’s latest iPhone iteration. My mind immediately went to the US auto industry of the 70s and 80s. Now, my expectation is that anyone who’ll read this will immediately jump to the argument that Xiaomi has done nothing more than “steal” Apple’s IP. Probably. For me, that was nothing more than the inevitable outcome of the Apple decision to centralize its entire production in the Mainland. The real point is the irrelevancy of this argument. Ignoring reality will not address the core issue. This Xiaomi example is nothing but another chink in the American armour of supposed technological exceptionalism. The China tech threats aren’t just accelerating, they are expanding in scope. Real world implications are just around the corner and AI is the Hemingway whale with more than a few harpoons already lodged in its mid section. The American business media headlines need to be fully dismissed. Seek out all LLM community commentary. The AI user base. Do so and you’ll quickly find just how precarious the American AI ecosystem is from China’s relentless advances. The competitive threat from China isn’t insurmountable. Far from it. Still, what’s required is a return to raw competitive forces. Enough with share buy backs. Invest. Enough with regulatory capture. Build better products. Deliver better services.

China Afternoon Missive And there we have it. To my note from this morning, it’s a soybeans for the lifting of “unreasonable” tariffs trade off. I suppose this was the cleanest quid pro quo. There is also the point that a Chinese trade delegation was just in the American midwest. Pressure is being applied on all fronts. Now that we have formal confirmation means the proverbial ball is in Trump’s court. Somewhat of a tough corner. It’s harvest season and if the Chinese don’t come in soon then the farmers will need a decent sized government bailout. What I do enjoy is just how “Chinese” this is all playing out. There is never a conclusion only a never ending series of “talks”. I’ve found in my experience that the foreign side almost always capitulates. They just get worn down. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-signals-that-purchases-us-soybeans-hinge-tariff-removal-2025-09-25/

China Morning Missive It is beginning to look as though there’s already been a bit of a breakdown after last week’s bilateral talks in Madrid. It all centers on soybeans, and I’ve been surprised up to this point that China has not announced any purchase from American farmers. This is always the go-to tactic when it comes to a specific Chinese deliverable anytime Beijing seeks to “make nice” with Washington. Well, not only are the Midwest farmers now scrambling, but China also announced yesterday that it would be purchasing soybeans from Argentina. Granted, it’s only around a $1bn order, but the message is clear at least in how I’m reading these particular tea leaves. Not as well that this announcement was made just as the United States was preparing to provide the Milei government a $20bn in financial support. There’s no question in my mind that the Chinese made a verbal agreement to restart purchases of soybeans during last week’s Madrid round of talks. It would have been a conditionally made agreement though. There is a sort of dance going on if you will. Step one, the parties agree to a TikTok deal. Step two, the Americans then formally/publicly deliver on whatever key issue China demanded but that had only been privately agreed to in the talks. Step three, the Chinese reciprocate and begin buying American soybeans. It is now clear that there has been a breakdown. You can see this from the fact that the purchase of Argentina soybeans is small compared to the typical $10bn to $15bn worth of American soybeans around this time of year. It’s meant as a signal to Washington that there are other markets where China can source its raw material needs. Not yet clear to me how this will all play out, but the entirety of all this sparing between China and the United States is far from over. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinese-buyers-book-least-10-argentine-soybean-cargoes-sources-say-2025-09-23/

The Chinese game MahJong, specifically the Shanghai version, provides some unique cultural insights. Uploading the video below for those interested.

China Morning Missive There is always more that hides behind the public veil. Recall when the US and China met in London in June. The parties left the talks and the entire conversation centered on China’s agreement to resume exports of rare earth materials. There was zero commentary as to what the US side would deliver in return. Within a matter of a single week the quid pro quo became known. The US would begin lifting certain technology related export controls. This very same dynamic is at play with the recent trade talks in Madrid. While the focus has centered on China approving the sale of the US TikTok platform, there’s been zero focus on what the US would deliver in return. Now we have the highly expected move by China to begin purchases of American soybeans. As background, China is the single largest export market for American soybeans with, for reference, $13bn in exports, or roughly 20% of all production, in 2024. For this year, China has purchased zero American soybeans. The harvest has now arrive and the farmers are desperate. China has now returned to the table and it is highly likely for a large purchase agreement to be announced in the coming weeks. That then means China has “delivered” for American twice. All of this begs the question. What is it that the Trump team has delivered which would be of an equitable value. I will say it again. The deliverable is Taiwan.

Bloomberg.com

US Crop Markets Rise as Chinese Trade Envoy Meets US Delegation

Most US crop markets traded higher following an announcement from China that a trade envoy from the nation met with a delegation of US political an...

I don’t know about you, but all the Nvidia and Jensen Huang throwing money at the entire AI ecosystem is giving me the same vibes when SBF pulled the same shit in 2022. That now infamous Fortune cover story “The Next Warren Buffett” https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/how-nvidia-is-backstopping-americas-ai-boom-875c1346?st=tqTEPm&reflink=article_copyURL_share

China Morning Missive The PBoC just announced no change to its interest rates. To most, this will be viewed as an errant move given all the arguments over deflation and the recent cut made by the Fed. The decision, however, makes perfect sense. The deflation argument aside, which I view as being poorly understood by macro traders, there’s been a clear rebound in both consumer and investor sentiment locally. Even though we are far from aggressive optimism, there is a deep desire among the policy players in Beijing to refrain from supporting old economic drivers which are heavily dependent on interest rates. The play over the past 18 months, and which remains firmly intact, is to hold the focus on deleveraging the economy. Yes, as I’ve noted in the past, China has issued a massive number of government bonds. There are also countless articles discussing China operating this year with a budget deficit of nearly 10%. Where are all those funds going? That is the question I’ve found none to be asking, and it is a vitally important question. Left pocket, right pocket. The majority of funds raised by the central government are being redirected to local governments for the expressed purpose of debt restructuring. Net-net, this supposed “fiscal bazooka” provides zero, or at least minimal, stimulus. China is working to put its fiscal house in order. So whenever you see those clickbait titles which includes “China’s money printer”, go into the content with a great degree of skepticism. China leaves benchmark lending rates unchanged as expected, despite Fed rate cut

CNBC

China leaves benchmark lending rates unchanged as expected, despite Fed rate cut

The People's Bank of China kept the one-year loan prime rate unchanged at 3.0% while the five-year LPR at 3.5%, respectively, according to a statem...

Call schedule at 9am EST less than an hour from now. Expecting Trump and Xi to announce a TikTok deal and even a sizable buy of soybeans by China. Question remains …. What does China get in return? An announced trip to China by Trump at the end of October is my best guess. Behind the scenes though, China will get a recommitment of the One China policy. TikTok for Taiwan essentially.

Bloomberg.com

Trump, Xi to Hold Call as TikTok, Tariffs and Nvidia Loom Large

A call between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping is underway, in a discussion that promises to determine the fate of TikTo...

Here’s a fun fact. Enemy of the State - the movie - came out in 1998. And look where we are as a society today.

China Morning Missive And here I am having to debunk at every turn the errant belief of a Social Credit as ore in China. When, in reality, one is - for all intents and purposes - deeply imbedded into the American social fabric. The obsession over credit scores in the US is a symptom of an economy with a foundation build of dead slaves.

CNBC

Credit scores fall for the second year in a row as more borrowers miss payments

The average FICO credit score fell two points year over year to 715. The resumption of federal student loan delinquency reporting was a key factor.

China Morning Missive So, a TikTok deal has been reached, or rather a “basic framework consensus” has been agreed upon whatever that might mean. There are countless details still outstanding, but there are two items which need to be raised. First, for China to agree some price would have had to been paid. There’s been nothing from either side. Knowing the importance of the social media platform to President Trump would indicate (at least to me) that the Chinese sought – and received – an item of equal value. I believe what was delivered was Taiwan. What I mean, exactly, is that President Trump – at a minimum – will follow in the steps of President Clinton in 1998 with his “three no’s” statement. A full, and public, reaffirming of the One China policy. It could, however, be the case that China was able to extract more than just a public statement. It is distinctly possible the parties agreed to, and will announce, a Forth Communique. That last time China and the United States formally recommitted to the One China policy was the 1982 Third Communique. Four decades plus is a long time and China is in a position to push for this sort of quid pro quo. The focus is now on this Friday’s phone call and whether the two leaders announced a state visit to Beijing by President Trump later this month. It would be during that visit when any such public statement would be made, or new communique entered into. The second item centers on the framework of the deal itself. To start, China’s trade negotiator stated in local media that the parties would “negotiate the details of the outcome document”. For those who’ve conducted any commercial operations in China, you’ll know that this means no final deal has been concluded. Far from it. Positive progress, for sure, but no deal. Reviewing local media accounts also finds that the deal structure isn’t a sale. Again, China’s trade negotiator stated that TikTok would be “licensing its intellectual property including algorithms.” It is a licensing agreement and not a clean sale. This was followed by comments from the Deputy Director of the Cyberspace Administration of China stating, “resolving the TikTok issue through the outsourcing operations of TikTok’s US user data and content security operations.” The operative word here is “outsourcing”. Tying all these details together would then point to the establishment of an American corporate structure which controls US data and the domestic operations, but where Bytedance licenses the entire backend to that American entity. Critical, it doesn’t appear all that clear which corporate entity will control the algorithm for the US platform. There’s also the financing dynamics to take into account for whatever deal is reached. Bytedance remains 60% owned by foreign investors and I’d expect a corporate reorg of some sort. Those details, however, are easier to iron out and – frankly – far less interesting. For now, and I’ll repeat, it all just comes down to the Trump/Xi call set for the end of this week.

Bloomberg.com

US, China Reach TikTok ‘Consensus,’ Setting Up Trump-Xi Call

President Donald Trump said he would speak with Chinese leader Xi Jinping on Friday as US and Chinese officials reached a framework deal on keeping...

Seems as though things are moving quickly on the China - American negotiation front. This just got the headlines. I’ll believe that a deal for TikTok is completed when I see it. And if a deal is concluded then the question becomes …… as what cost?

China Evening Missive It looks as though the TikTok for Taiwan deal is hanging precariously by a thread. “Aggressive asks”??!! I have considerable doubts that any deal for the social media platform is close to being agreed to. And then there is the issue of China agreeing to purchase soybeans. American farmers are borderline desperate and China hasn’t made any purchases this year. This fourth round of talks in Madrid could unravel in spectacular fashion within the next 12 hours.

Bloomberg.com

US Close to Resolving TikTok Issue With China, Bessent Says

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent claimed Chinese negotiators had made aggressive demands during high-stakes trade talks in Madrid, where hagglin...

China Morning Missive Round four, this time in Madrid and yet I’ll be fully focused to see what it is that Bessent and his team will put on the table in return for the Chinese to restart purchases of American soybeans. This article is yet another example of the points of leverage China holds over the entire negotiating process. Farmers are nearer the top of all constitutes that can elicit a political response. I’m also not a believe in coincidences and it should be duly noted that this Madrid meeting is taking place at the point in time when crops are set to be harvested. The entire collaborative relationship which existed between China and the United States for 30 years did deliver, clearly not for everyone, but it did deliver. Not just prosperity on both sides, again, not for everyone, but the relationship also resulted in peace throughout the Pacific. There’s no question that the relationship needs to be amended and that areas where the Chinese pressed their advantage needs to be addressed. Arguing for a full, or even material, decoupling in the two economies is akin to cutting your nose off to spite your face. Expectations from this latest round of meetings are pretty low. There’s Tik Tok and also a state visit to China by Trump which are being hammered out. Still, I suspect this entire meeting is all about soybeans and I’ll be watching closely to see what tradeoff by Bessent is made. https://northdakotamonitor.com/2025/09/14/north-dakota-soybean-growers-anxiously-await-sales-to-china/

China Morning Missive Once again, there’s been a great deal of chatter over the past 24 hours that #China continues to face harsh deflationary pressures. Yes, there are pressures but, no, it’s not as serious as you might imagine. Just another example of the China macro-tourists not fully appreciating local market dynamics and it is for this reach why I’ve included the graphic below. That is the Chinese government bond 10-year yield. Notice anything? That’s right, yields have been rising throughout the year, albeit with some volatility. How to you square that circle then? Yields are supposed to fall when deflation is present. The answer is simple. Investors are now betting that the various Chinese policies meant to alter economic drivers is working. The market is now fully “risk on”. That then means Chinese investors are selling out of fixed income, sending yields higher, and piling into equities. Is this sustainable? That’s not yet clear. What I’d ask those in the macro world to do, however, is take off the lens of Western markets. It is highly counterproductive. Cc: @James Lavish might want to bring this up when McGlone keeps bringing up the Chinese bond market.