Peter Alexander

My new mantra “Fuck You! Make me!”

China Afternoon Missive And the TikTok saga continues. Notice how there’s been zero public commentary of late on the deal either from the Trump team or from the Oracle-led investment consortium. But I’m not here to harp on the deal itself. What I found of far greater interest was this linked Bloomberg opinion piece from the company’s editorial board. Of particular interest was the following statements. “Officials have been warning about TikTok for years. The app collects a lot of information about its users, including keystrokes and location data; it serves up content according to an opaque algorithm that might be used to censor or manipulate Americans; and its parent company must, by law, answer to the Chinese government.” Um, that exact statement perfectly sums up the entire social media complex in the United States. And the Bloomberg editorial board misses, entirely, the hypocrisy of its statement. The TikTok deal was never about “national security”, it was an exercise in regulatory capture in its rawest form. Meta, Google and their brethren simply couldn’t compete with a better performing algorithm and with it a massive loss in ad revenue. Why compete and build a better UX/UI when you can use your Washington connections to kneecap a rival. There’s no question that, in the end, a deal for TikTok will be made. I’ll also repeat myself here and state that China is seeking a Taiwan quid pro quo deliverable in return. What I do find ironic is how, ultimately, the acquisition of TikTok will prove to be a “poisoned chalice.” Not just for the investment consortium, but for Trump as well. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-10-15/trump-s-tiktok-deal-still-raises-red-flags

China Morning Missive Not only is there no concrete China policy out of the Trump administration, I am here to also state that the boys in Beijing are very well aware of this fact and are acting accordingly. Two days ago, the business media complex ran with Sec Bessent’s comment that “China want to pull the entire world down with them.” Recoiling from the decision by China to impose tighter export controls, Bessent’s frustration in dealing with the Chinese reached a breaking point of sorts. There was the late last week quip by Trump himself of a new threat of 100% across the board tariffs. That, of course, was walked back before futures opened on Sunday night. Now we have Bessent talking about “decoupling” while in the same breath raising the prospects of a “long truce”. Having personally dealt with Chinese counterparties far more than your average person, what you are seeing is the exact outcome the Beijing negotiators have been seeking. Act in a highly mercurial manner with the objective of frustrating those sitting across the table. Do so long enough and that party will snap, putting them off balanced. Bessent would have had far greater success trying to nail Jello to a wall. The only tactic the Chinese respond to is steely, aggressive determination. The unmovable object. There is no middle ground ever. To make this point a bit clearer, allow me to provide a more real-world example. If you run a business in China, you’ll, obviously, manage Chinese employees and these individuals only have two operating modes. (1) they work and work hard under a deeply seeded concern of losing their job or (2) no real concern is evident in the workplace and with that they will seek out and press aggressively any identified advantage. There are, of course, exceptions but what I’ve laid out here is the rule. I have no idea who is advising the Trump team, but I can assure you those advisors have no idea what they are doing. Failure on a epic scale. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-15/bessent-floats-longer-tariff-truce-for-china-rare-earth-delay

America takes the path of weaponizing trade and the message conveyed is “suck it up”. China decides to enter the arena and go mano a mano and, well, you get Bessent playing the victim card. This isn’t at all the sort of America I grew up in Bessent tells the FT that China wants 'to pull everybody else down with them' https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/14/bessent-china-rare-earths.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.CopyToPasteboard

Again, for those interested, this short clip from a recent interview provides some China insight you won’t hear elsewhere. You’ve all read the stories of foreigners running afoul with the Chinese authorities. Arrests. Show trials ….. Well, in this clip I provide some much needed context. Always remember. Where there’s smoke there is fire. https://youtu.be/KWpASuek2SM?si=j8HAl14F4B4jhdvO

Tim Cook making yet another pilgrimage to China. And of course there has to be a Labubu event to go along with his visit. #2025 https://blossom.primal.net/780bb0c91540f41c13cbc5ecac5858b4465c3a059fd798529cc0fd5b8fef72a2.mp4

This cannot wait. While everyone out there is flailing around commenting on China and rare earths, far more consequential moves are being made from Beijing to fundamentally restructure the global trade and financial systems. No outright headline driving action mind you, rather a subtle moving of pieces on the game board. What we have today is an agreement reached between Chinese buyers of iron ore and Australia’s largest company, BHP Beginning this quarter, BHP has agreed to invoice 30% of all purchases in Renminbi. From the article attached below, which is fantastic I might add, this equates to US$8-10 billion of value-added trade. While not specifically addressed in the article, one very logical conclusion to draw is that BHP would have only agreed to such terms if future excesses of Renminbi could be settled in gold through the Shanghai International Gold Exchange. nostr:nprofile1qqsywt6ypu57lxtwj2scdwxnyrl3sry9typcstje65x7rw9a2e5nq8spz3mhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuerpd46hxtnfduqs6amnwvaz7tmwdaejumr0ds9f9l5l I suspect that this development has much to do with the gold “on warrant” you raised last month. Given this BHP agreement, I would suspect that a host of other groups, Vale out of Brazil for example, look to follow suit. More Renminbi invoicing with an agreement for final settlement in gold would require the Shanghai vaults to be at the ready. Anyway, there is a very discernable pattern taking place. While China isn’t at all interested in replacing the USD as a medium of all trade, there is a clear preference for key raw materials to be invoiced in Renminbi. This entire process began with gold back in 2014 (the required base layer) and then, ever so slowly, creeped into the petroleum sector beginning in 2022. I’m even beginning to wonder if Beijing is seeking an agreement over American soybean purchases where a percentage is invoiced in local Chinese currency. Heads would most certainly explode. To the best of your ability, ignore all engagement farming, trade war commentary. It’s of little value and will be forgotten in a matter of days. Focus instead on real-world developments that have an actual impact. There was the launch of the China to Tehran railway and the granting of Gazprom approval to issue Panda bonds. Expect more in the weeks and months ahead. Make no mistake. China is pressing its advantage, just not where you might think. https://discoveryalert.com.au/news/currency-shift-global-iron-ore-markets-2025/

China Morning Missive There seems to be a new term flying around the social media universe. “Escalation dominance”. Basically, it’s just a fancy way of saying China has far greater negotiating leverage as compared to the United States. Well, this bilateral imbalance has been at the core of the Notes I’ve been putting out for the past six months. My very succinct summary is this. China produces everything and America produces nothing. I’m not here to beat on America and China is most certainly working through its own issues. When you step back though and look at both parties on a net-net basis there is no other conclusion to draw than that of trade terms being dictated by China. Here is the best real-world example that I can give. To start, the current imbalance is the result of a three-decade period where multinational groups aggressively outsourced production to China. You hear this all the time. China hollowed out middle America. What doesn’t seem to get enough attention is that this entire imbalance was loudly telegraphed back in 2018 during Trump 1.0 and yet no corrective action was taken at that time. Just consider Apple as one example. Tim Cook knew at the time the precarious nature of Apple’s manufacturing dependence on China. Did he decided to marshal the company’s ample cash hoard and take aggressive steps to diversify away from China? Of course he didn’t. Such action would have tanked the stock. All that Time Cook did was accelerate the company’s share buyback program. For those who may doubt, I am a Red-Blooded American. There is, however, a reality that cannot be ignored. Like it or not, a very deep hole has been dug, and the first order of business is to stop digging. This then means that a collaborative relationship with China is the only option …. for now. A system based on financialization must shift aggressively to one centered on reindustrialization. It’ll take time, but as the old Chinese adage goes, “The best time to plant a tree is twenty years ago. The second best time is today.” https://www.politico.com/news/2025/10/12/china-defiance-trump-100-tariff-00605499

The definition of delusional. Thinking that the deal for TikTok will actually move forward. https://www.cbsnews.com/texas/video/president-trump-posts-first-tiktok-since-approving-sale-you-owe-me-big/

Call it serendipity, but was talking to a reporter yesterday prior to the Trump meltdown over China. The quotes are even more salient now than when I shared them with the reporter.

For those interested. China DGAF

China Morning Missive #Shocking and by “shocking” I mean not even a little bit. What should be expected is a rather manic period - heightened volatility - between now and the APEC meeting at month’s end. Perhaps not an exact replay of the massive back and forth in tariffs we witnessed earlier in the year, More aggressive posturing and strongly worded memos than anything else. What is rather certain though is there’ll be no Chinese purchases of soybeans anytime soon. Government will need to cut a decent sized check to bail out the farmers. Next week could be a very ugly for markets. Trump puts extra 100% tariff on China imports, adds software export controls https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/10/trump-trade-tariffs-china-software.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.CopyToPasteboard

I just published a new read on Nostr! “It is only after a contract is signed when the real negotiations begin” A common complaint I hear is how Chinese counterparties move the goalposts in a relationship. My response; there simply aren't any goalposts to begin with. Check it out: https://highlighter.com/a/naddr1qvzqqqr4gupzqgfre3ug0gn6vffsuqwnfa2gmmryttfuruxtw5fhlva7d47zwn2eqpx5japdd9ej6mmwd3uj6ctxw3jhyttp943k7mn5wfskxapdd9ej6umfvahx2epdwa5x2m3dw35x2ttjv4skcttwv4nk7arfv96xjmmwwvkkyet8d9hz6em2vfchgwgfpha8j nostr:naddr1qvzqqqr4gupzqgfre3ug0gn6vffsuqwnfa2gmmryttfuruxtw5fhlva7d47zwn2eqy2hwumn8ghj7un9d3shjtnyv9kh2uewd9hj7qg4waehxw309aex2mrp0yhxgctdw4eju6t09uqsuamnwvaz7tmwdaejumr0dshsz9mhwden5te0wfjkccte9ec8y6tdv9kzumn9wshszrnhwden5te0dehhxtnvdakz7qzdf96z66tn94hkumre94skvar9wgkkzttrdah8gunpvd6z66tn94ekjemwv4jz6amgv4hz6argv5khyetpdskkuet8da6xjct5d9hkuuedvfjkw6tw94nk5cn3wsust00vhs https://highlighter.com/a/naddr1qvzqqqr4gupzqgfre3ug0gn6vffsuqwnfa2gmmryttfuruxtw5fhlva7d47zwn2eqy2hwumn8ghj7un9d3shjtnyv9kh2uewd9hj7qzdf96z66tn94hkumre94skvar9wgkkzttrdah8gunpvd6z66tn94ekjemwv4jz6amgv4hz6argv5khyetpdskkuet8da6xjct5d9hkuuedvfjkw6tw94nk5cn3wsus4hgf77

A fantastic week away with family. Left the world behind and just ate, drank and laughed. Watching my two sons living life on their own terms is probably the greatest gift. Well, that and spoiling my granddaughter. Truly put so much into perspective. Love to all.

#priorities #family Still hard to conceive being a grandfather.

Going offline for a week. Priorities. Family. Granddaughters first birthday.

Ok, for those who have seen this content below, and with the greatest respect to nostr:npub1rtlqca8r6auyaw5n5h3l5422dm4sry5dzfee4696fqe8s6qgudks7djtfs, this information is patently false. Moreover, this trope - all of what Peterson claims - has been promlagated by more podcast hosts and guest than I can recall. I jaywalk all the time and there’s been no consequence and there’s certainly been no deduction of any cash from my bank account. And having your face plastered in public? Are you serious. First off, there aren’t that number of screens and whatever screens are out there are a blaze with commercials and marketing. Here is what I can share. If you do happen to share “sensitive” content on any of the various social media platforms you will receive a message to refrain from any such future commentary. If you continue, then your social media account will be suspended. I believe that this has happened more than a few times in the US and, well, just look at the UK at the moment. When it comes to third party commentary on China, my recommendation is to always question whether than commentator has been to China at any point in the recent past. I’ve found that most people haven’t been to China in at least six years, pre-Covid times. What we have is an ecosystem where errant tropes, that so beautifully align with hardened biases, are picked up and then repeated over and over again to the point that, well, it is all taken as truth. My suggestion to everyone is to tread skeptically when consuming content on China by individuals who, themselves, are only passing on second hand information. Do the same too, have a raised eyebrow with people like myself. Just don’t take what you see as gospel. The only way to know with the utmost confidence is to get on a plane and come to China to see for yourself. Make up your own mind. nostr:note1hn3nmjj8gmmc0m49tzn48xr24x4fvcz88fygx9x4q9324u5xvsrqu2c480