Peter Alexander's avatar
Peter Alexander 2 months ago
This cannot wait. While everyone out there is flailing around commenting on China and rare earths, far more consequential moves are being made from Beijing to fundamentally restructure the global trade and financial systems. No outright headline driving action mind you, rather a subtle moving of pieces on the game board. What we have today is an agreement reached between Chinese buyers of iron ore and Australia’s largest company, BHP Beginning this quarter, BHP has agreed to invoice 30% of all purchases in Renminbi. From the article attached below, which is fantastic I might add, this equates to US$8-10 billion of value-added trade. While not specifically addressed in the article, one very logical conclusion to draw is that BHP would have only agreed to such terms if future excesses of Renminbi could be settled in gold through the Shanghai International Gold Exchange. @Marty Bent I suspect that this development has much to do with the gold “on warrant” you raised last month. Given this BHP agreement, I would suspect that a host of other groups, Vale out of Brazil for example, look to follow suit. More Renminbi invoicing with an agreement for final settlement in gold would require the Shanghai vaults to be at the ready. Anyway, there is a very discernable pattern taking place. While China isn’t at all interested in replacing the USD as a medium of all trade, there is a clear preference for key raw materials to be invoiced in Renminbi. This entire process began with gold back in 2014 (the required base layer) and then, ever so slowly, creeped into the petroleum sector beginning in 2022. I’m even beginning to wonder if Beijing is seeking an agreement over American soybean purchases where a percentage is invoiced in local Chinese currency. Heads would most certainly explode. To the best of your ability, ignore all engagement farming, trade war commentary. It’s of little value and will be forgotten in a matter of days. Focus instead on real-world developments that have an actual impact. There was the launch of the China to Tehran railway and the granting of Gazprom approval to issue Panda bonds. Expect more in the weeks and months ahead. Make no mistake. China is pressing its advantage, just not where you might think.

Replies (1)

Peace K 🪙's avatar
Peace K 🪙 2 months ago
Can you please explain how can foreign companies be shore that they would be able to settle excess Renminbi in gold? What guarantee do they have that 1. China won't devaluate the Renminbi? 2. That if they will want to exit the deal, China will refuse the exchange to gold and they will be stuck with Renminbi?