Within the next 1-2 months we will know for certain if/that the cycles are broken. Not just diminished, or extended, but irrelevant. Either way, we will be happy, and free. OGs will sell, regardless. Incoming plebs will stack regardless. Podcasts will pimp cycle-theory regardless. Or monetize why broken cycles are Bullish. Everything about Bitcoin will change in the next couple months. All our models will be revised & confirmed, or discarded. We will exhale stale air into a refreshing new world.

The single word “theorist” was Edward Bernays’ inspired bullshit that completely undermined the legitimate Sciences.

I’m honestly not into price-action right now. And I’m not into fighting about core. I just want to take a few months off and be Me.

@chowcollection is a tireless font of new music from Japan/Asia. And hashtag a pleb. Please follow. It’s genuinely heartening to have Bitcoin-non-Bitcoin inspirations coming in right now, imo. (Don’t judge by this one retweet.) View quoted note →

16 years of Bitcoin, and I’ve never cared or gotten any signal from any data on the blockchain. Whatarewe?

🛢️ 🛢️ 🛢️ Oil continues to free-fall, breaking below 60ksats. WTI Crude at 59,743 sats per barrel on the morning. Jed Clampett could not be reached for comment. 🛢️ 🛢️ 🛢️

I‘m not a lover of TA, but over 25 years I’ve come to respect a handful of the very skilled professional traders I’ve known. When Institutions entered Bitcoin in 2021, we were introduced to a long-time Institutional tactic for “fleecing Retail” called the Wyckoff Distribution (also called a 3-Drive Top formation). This theory held out, and explained from a TA perspective the 2021 ‘compressed top’ into the bear market. Institutional Traders saw an opportunity, entered Bitcoin en masse, fleeced the Retail, and left. Bitcoin experience it’s longest bear market yet. 2024 however saw a reverse-Wyckoff bottom formation that lasted 8 months - which we experienced as the Crab-Walk. This may have been a Wyckoff Accumulation, or bottom accumulation - spurred by the newly formed ETFs last January. It signaled Institutions managing and accumulating the massive and needed new ETF inflows which, when sated, were then unleashed - and caused Bitcoin to explode to new highs. We seem, imo, to be in the midst of another Wyckoff Accumulation / bottom. This would explain the breaking of the cycles right now. Institutional Traders may be managing and accumulating Bitcoin in anticipation of the coming Nation State adoption that is coming. IF this holds true, and IF it mirrors last year’s Wyckoff bottom accumulation, then Bitcoin will yet crab forward - and even touch a another low for the year very soon, shaking out the last of the weakest of the lettuce-hands. Until late-June / early July when it will explode much, much higher.

🛢️ 🛢️ 🛢️ Oil weakness persists into all-time lows. WTI Crude Oil priced at 62,328 sats/barrel. 🛢️ 🛢️ 🛢️

I’ve been running nodes for 3+ years, and it’s beginning to bother me that I’ve never found an app that makes me WANT to login to my node. Admittedly, I’ve stopped caring, so I may be out of touch. Can anyone suggest an app they use regularly? Is there any ‘killer app’ for active use (i.e. other than storing my files)?

🛢️ 🛢️ 🛢️ The value of Oil is collapsing in real-money terms, hitting unseen before lows. WTI Crude trading at 63,544 sats per barrel for nations & institutions prescient enough to embrace Bitcoin. Nostrovia Satoshi! 🛢️ 🛢️ 🛢️

🛢️ 🛢️ 🛢️ Oil continues to get pounded on the ropes, pushing toward a TKO below all-time lows in sats. Currently 65,633 sats/barrel for WTI Crude. 🛢️ 🛢️ 🛢️

Never Forget: - The 9/11 official story was a proven lie. - The Epstein list is too important to make public. - The Moon is not what we’ve been told. - The word Doge isn’t pronounced correctly.

“The OG Bitcoiner”: A Classical 5-Act Play Act I: Exposition “This Bitcoin thing is cool. I’m all in! Yolo, I hope it blows up! Lambo!!!” Act II: Rising Action “WTF…I used to have 400 Bitcoins and now it’s mooning and I only have 100. But I needed car repairs. What wuz I thinking!?!” Act III: Climax “The selling and shitcoining are ruining me! Bitcoin might actually be a thing! I must, MUST focus on working for fiat instead. HODL and STACK was the message all along!” Act IV: Falling Action “I will draw the line at 50 Bitcoins. For real. I have to get serious about my future. Start a podcast? A credit card? Move to El Salvador? I can both live and hodl, right? What does it mean to ‘build’?” Act V: Denouement/Resolution “I’ll sell less this year. And even less the year after. And that’s Ok. Life is good. This is the Bitcoin way.” Lights down and…Curtain

@Lyn Alden spotted. In the wild.

🛢️ 🛢️ 🛢️ Oil continues to testing an ATL in sats at the close of this week. A break below 66ksats will leave nothing but vacuum beneath. WTI Crude currently at 66,360 sat/barrel. 🛢️ 🛢️ 🛢️

All self-made Men have faced a difficult situation when their productive life gives way to simply handing over their wealth to their children. Because children rarely want to accept the path they’ve watched their parents exhaust themselves on. Hence, the Trust Fund was born! A Trust Fund is a legal convention that allows a rich person to turn over their wealth - with Strings Attached. Yet a Trust Fund requires an active Money Manger. It was a brilliant strategy, and it extended into many other uses. But I mention it here because Bitcoin has not yet entered the Trust Fund era. But it inevitably will. In the next decade we will see the development for self-custody models for this, most likely using time-lock / blocktime verify techniques, which are already amazingly perfect for this eventuality. You release your Bitcoin inheritance at a reliable, moderate pace unto your heirs, according to your post-humous fancy. Managing these payouts over time will become a solid value-set for Bitcoin service businesses very soon, as they’ll require personal service to set up, but little “trust management” thereafter. IF YOU HAVE AN INTEREST IN INVESTMENT SERVICE, AND IN LEARNING AND “PLAYING WITH”THE TECHNICALS OF TIME LOCK & BLOCKTIME VERIFY TECHNIQUES, YOU COULD FRONT-RUN THIS TREND NOW AND ESTABLISH YOURSELF IN PERHAPS JUST A FEW YEARS AS AN EXPERT.

🛢️ 🛢️ 🛢️ Oil testing its all-time lows on the morning, with WTI Crude trading at 66,286 sats/barrel. For countries buying with Bitcoin, oil only gets cheaper. 🛢️ 🛢️ 🛢️

I’m personally feeling like this braking of the Cycles is starting to free up a lot of angst. Kind of like the long big beautiful bear-boredom party, but with all the Bitcoin Generations inconvenienced by hanging out together. I sorta don’t hate the OGs anymore for all their dumping. And sorta want to give a re-newed hand to Newbs, because I’m not so focused lately on my bags pumping. Is it just me? Am I the only one feeling the Spirit of the Cycle-Crucifixion? Appreciate you.

A weaker US Dollar bolsters US exports, makes US products cheaper. But - the US is the primary consumer for the world, so exports have traditionally not been so important as imports. And But - attracting manufacturing back to the US depends on external tariffs + weaker US$. It’s fascinating game-play, but this is the very short Tariff Tantrum in a teapot, as I’m seeing it. And, imo, it’s brilliant in so many ways. Ultimately imo, (and Saifedean Ammous disagrees) this will put the catalyst of “hyper-Bitcoinization” onto OPEC/Oil Producing countries to accept Bitcoin for payment. As a necessary stair-step toward accepting Bitcoin as a neutral currency for a proxy for the $US Global Reserve. My view is that nations will fight it out to the end until Oil is involved. Saifedean views that nation-states will adopt Bitcoin as a global reserve first, regardless. Either way, it seems inevitable that the Fiat world is circling the toilet bowl toward the inevitable. A truly neutral, autonomous Money.