We need to reclaim sankey diagrams for good

Doug bf pepper ann gf

There is a natural filter to discussion of ideas, engineering and otherwise. Paying people to listen to you.. it’s giving “we’ll give you $5 to take 5 surveys” vibes

Damn they’re going to pay a million bucks just to get people to talk about their idea

This was an idea I threw on here a while ago, I think it has legs, but like most things nostr needs to be open source. I fleshed out the idea more and am putting it out here before I try to ChatGPT it into reality

GitHub

GitHub - npslaney/nostrtok

Contribute to npslaney/nostrtok development by creating an account on GitHub.

Video is the way most consume content now a days and it’s about time YouTube and TikTok got disrupted. A protocol like this would- - pay creators directly - distribute and potentially pay for hosting - potentially be very easy to onboard onto as a creator or consumer of content We have a good set of primitives to build this, and I think the incentives line up to make it work. I think something like this turns nostr into a 🚀

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Why is this so wrong? John has underestimated this business greatly. 1M sats for every user is a good place to start, but remember, as that user receives bitcoin, the investment decreases per user. Receiving bitcoin into a user channel puts that channel's ownership towards the user’s balance and adds the LSP’s investment back into routing channels. If John onboarded 1M people in the same instant, he would need that liquidity, but over time, he could recycle capital from used channels into new ones. Thinking of LSP channels as an investment you can get 1% annual return on is grossly underestimating the ROI. Lightning returns are not capital dependent, they are payment volume dependent. Users – 1M GPV / user – $2,400 Total GPV – $2.4B Conservative outside volume (routing begets routing) – $1B Take rate – 1% (0.5% in, 0.5% out, LSP user only pays for send) Outside take rate – 0.1% Revenue – $25M Investment – I’d peg this at 1500 BTC ROI – 28% Hang on, why such a low investment? Consider a single LSP channel. At the beginning of its life, we allocate 100% of the liquidity for that channel. As the end user uses that channel, they carry some ongoing balance and use a percentage of the channel for daily payments. The more that user holds in that channel, the less capital the LSP has committed to that individual user. The only capital the LSP ends up committing to that user is their receivable capacity. The rest is held by the user. While the initial first investment is 100% of channel capacity, this quickly moves back to more active external channels and back into the LSP’s wallet if they’d like. Total investment depends on how much your users like to hodl as opposed to how many users you have. John is assuming a lot of Hodlers, I assume they hold 85% of the channel they request. Similarly, with such a successful LSP, we can realize efficiencies of scale on the routing side, assuming many users are sending and receiving, we can open large channels that have little turnover. On the whole, at steady state an LSP can optimize its liquidity to the point where the capital invested is mostly to support ongoing payment flows (that make money). Inactive hodlers do not add to the overall cost of capital, especially with the ability to splice out inbound from inactive channels over time, which further increases capital efficiency. Now assume we’re really trying to grow this thing. We have plenty of revenue to invest into free onboarding for new users.

Sad to see this. This is one of the most impressive teams I've seen in the bitcoin space, and the work they put out with just 3 people was remarkable. Thank you for everything you all have done 🫡 View quoted note →

The word “trustless” is thrown around a lot in bitcoin and lightning. What does this mean? Much of bitcoin and lightning is focused on empowering the end points of any transaction to send, receive, and hold value without trusting a middleman or third party between the two. A trustless system means that even if there are other parties that are a part of it, transactions can occur with the same amount of trust as handing cash directly to the recipient. There are many who point to terms like “trustless” and twist its meaning (in bad faith) to put ideas onto bitcoin and its developers that do not exist. Trustless does not mean you do not trust anyone and live in a cave. With any economic transaction, there is someone on the other end that you hopefully trust and have some relationship with. Bitcoin does not seek to destroy or change the relationship you have with others you transact with. Bitcoin does seek to reduce your reliance on third parties that could care less about you, your wealth, your family, or who you transact with.

🤔 why does TA never quite work?

Accounting for the run up in 2017, 2021, and ordinals of 2023-2024 we’ve had 294 days with a median bitcoin transaction fee of over $5. Where do you count the start of the Bitcoin network? Someone used it to buy pizza 5/22/2010. Using that as a starting point, median bitcoin fees have been below $5 for ~95% of its life

Over the last 3 years the median bitcoin transaction fee per day was over $5 for 68 days, or ~6% of that total period

My Uber driver in STL told me about bitcoin’s finite supply

It is low risk to do what other people are doing. You have the small proof point that someone threw money at it and maybe even can see some success. Following this path though, and constantly following is a sure fire way to not have a plan or vision. You may achieve some success, but you’ll need to look to the other guy for what’s next. Mapping out a path to what you want the world to look like, or in other words, setting a vision can be high risk (or at least seen as high risk to someone who values always being right). We are not good at predicting the future, but I think we deceive ourselves about how good we are at making the future. Having the right principles and values, and an idea of where you want to go means that every small decision along the way pushes you closer to where you want to be. Setting a vision is a bit like a self-fulfilling prophecy. It may be hard, the path there may not be exactly what you think it’ll be, but if you have the plan and the vision in mind, every step will bring you closer. And if you’re wrong, and you’re smart about it, you’ll adjust. Again, very few people predict the next 10 years. What matters when setting vision and direction are the underlying principles, motives, hypotheses, and not 100% the object level.

There’s a phenomenon I’ve noticed since getting involved professionally with Bitcoin, and I suspect it happens in other industries as well. I have a pet hypothesis is it drives most tech fads. I like to think of it as the “VC information super highway.” Of course VCs are looking for the latest thing to invest in, and talk to a lot of people. Eventually you find ideas that make the rounds of these VC charged networks. What I’ve noticed about most of the ideas that come to me this way: - they’re already being done, and copied - they’re an indicator of what is in vogue among VCs, and could likely be a fad / bubble - if you’re acting on this information alone, you’re likely not doing it right What’s “it”? It’s looking at what you have, what’s out there, and what you can do and charting a path forward that best harnesses your strengths and opportunities. Said another way, if you’re always doing what’s already out there, you will be by definition, perpetually behind. No idea is born in a vacuum, but if you’re not generating original thought within your own context, you are doing yourself a disservice. What might be working for one person, or company may very well not be what will work for you. It’s cool to hear what people are doing, but it was a mistake to make 3D TVs, double down on IoT, have a VR play, have an AI play. It sounds contrarian, but there is a lot of value in sticking to what you know deeply and your own principles. Doing what everyone else is doing is generally a losing or fleeting proposition.

Mempool 7 sat/vb Bitkey $25 👀

The Supreme Court has been doing work defending the constitution