Recent on-chain and technical analyses indicate Bitcoin's latest price plunge could be the preamble to a new descending trend. Key observations include:
The crash shattered vital technical support levels, pushing bullish momentum to the sidelines.
On-chain data reveals a significant percentage of recent Bitcoin investors are incurring losses. Their susceptibility to sell in a further decline is palpable.
The root of the downturn? A massive de-leveraging in Bitcoin futures markets. Interestingly, options markets remained relatively calm.
History reminds us: sharp leverage liquidations can flag a directional shift. Previously, bull runs have been initiated by shorts getting squeezed.
Current on-chain data depicts a "top-heavy" market. A bulk of Bitcoin's supply is held by investors whose purchase price surpasses the present rate. Their jittery nature hints at potential sales if the price dips again.
Several on-chain momentum indicators suggest a possible transition from a bullish to bearish mood.
In essence, though not conclusive, prevailing evidence leans towards a delicate state for Bitcoin. The imminent weeks will decide if the bearish atmosphere persists due to uneasy holders, or if the bulls rally and thwart the declining trajectory. Presently, the scale tips slightly towards a short-term bearish outlook.
正常情況下,政府會在經濟衰退期間增加支出和赤字,以提供經濟刺激並幫助恢復增長。然而,美國政府現在的年度赤字已達1.5-2萬億美元,相當於GDP的6-8%。(--- 也許這是GDP增長的原因? ---)
可以說政府已透過巨額赤字主動刺激經濟。其效果是在貨幣政策收緊的情況下,也讓服務業、醫療保健和金融等領域繼續取得支持。它延緩了更廣泛的經濟衰退。
總結而言,「預先刺激」指在經濟衰退前,政府透過大量財政赤字向經濟注入資金,從而延緩衰退。政府在沒有經濟下滑的情況下就已經在刺激經濟。
# Embracing Change: The Millionaire Mindset in the US's Strategic Inflation Export
When we think of wealth generation, we often confine ourselves to traditional economic principles. In doing so, we may be missing out on opportunities lying beyond the conventional domain, like the proverbial forest for the trees. The recent decision by the United States to bolster its support to Ukraine, in the wake of raising its debt ceiling in June 2023, offers an insightful case in point on how creative economic strategies can lead to surprising opportunities.
## The Millionaire Mindset: From the Conventional to the Inventive
Often, traditional economists view the economy through a rigid lens, focusing on the 'three-legged stool' of economics - interest rates, fiscal policy, and employment. Confined within these parameters, they tend to overlook the potential of innovative, seemingly unorthodox solutions.
When faced with the economic conundrum of the U.S., they might proclaim that the country has exhausted its economic toolbox. The 'three-legged stool', they suggest, is on the brink of collapse, with each adjustment threatening to upset the delicate balance. This perspective, however, is rooted in a domestic view that disregards the enormous potential in international politics and global economics.
## Beyond the Three Legs: Adding Dimensions to Economic Strategies
While the traditionalists were wringing their hands over the 'broken leg' of fiscal policy, the U.S., in a strategic move, opted to add another 'leg' to its economic stool. By raising the debt ceiling in June 2023, it was able to channel more military and financial aid to Ukraine.
This move, although seemingly a geopolitical one, was, in fact, a strategic maneuver to export inflation. By injecting 'new money' overseas instead of domestically, it effectively slowed down the circulation of money within the U.S., thus curbing domestic inflation rates while setting the stage for a potential soft landing.
## The Individual Perspective: Harnessing the Power of Open-mindedness
For individual investors, there is a wealth of insight to glean from this move. In a world where multiple jobs are often required to maintain a constant lifestyle, adopting an open mindset that seeks out new strategies is paramount.
Rather than toiling away for money, we need to adopt a mindset that looks for ways to make money work for us. Just like the U.S.'s unconventional fourth 'leg', we must seek out our own additional 'legs' to support our financial strategies and to safeguard against economic downturns.
## From Surviving to Thriving: Mastering the Art of Opportunity
The crux of the millionaire mindset lies in this willingness to think beyond the conventional. Like adding new legs to a stool, we must seek out alternative methods of generating wealth to ensure our financial stability and growth. It is about finding the hidden opportunities in the global events and market fluctuations that others might overlook.
By shifting our perspective from merely surviving to thriving, from just being workers to becoming investors, we are setting ourselves on the path to financial freedom. The lesson here is not to endorse specific political or economic strategies, but to champion a mindset that is open to possibilities and can see opportunities in the face of challenges.
In summary, every global event is not merely a news story; it is a potential gateway to new opportunities. So, let us rise above the confined view of the three-legged economic model and explore the possibilities that a more open, innovative mindset can bring. After all, financial freedom is not just about working harder, but about working smarter.
Re-publish my June 28's article about a hypothetical merger between Nvidia and Snowflake and its impact on Databricks.
I developed a prompt to let AI read Tradingview charts & analyze stocks. Used it on Ford ($F) - now at $11.96 after 1.1% gain. AI predicts uptrend on technicals but near term weakness on fundamentals. My prompt enabled AI to project recovery over the next 6-12 months.
flextiger@getalby.com
Who remember Google Plus? It was only 12 years ago.
