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//The Wire//2300Z March 14, 2025// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: AMERICAN AIRLINES FLIGHT SUFFERS ENGINE FIRE IN DENVER. DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS CONTINUE TO URGE AN AGREEMENT IN UKRAINE.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Europe: Diplomatic developments continue by the hour regarding the potential for peace in Ukraine. Russia has responded favorably to the idea of a ceasefire, however no ceasefire terms have been accepted on paper or implemented just yet. However, this morning NATO Chief Mark Rutte stated that Ukraine will not be joining NATO, which likely will be viewed as a favorable development by Russia. In Ukraine, the Kursk Offensive is largely no more, with almost all Ukrainian troops egressing south back over the border into Ukraine over the past few weeks. Canada: Justin Trudeau has formally resigned as Prime Minister, being replaced by Mark Carney. -HomeFront- Washington D.C. - Following yesterdays' multiple swatting incidents of conservative media figures, FBI Director Kash Patel issued a statement acknowledging the incidents, and has allegedly begun investigations into the culprits of these types of events. Colorado: American Airlines Flight 1006 experienced a fire emergency upon landing in Denver yesterday. The pilots landed without issue, however while taxiing to the terminal, an engine caught fire. The aircraft successfully made it back to the terminal before the fire expanded significantly. Despite challenges while evacuating (such as many passengers taking the time to gather their carry on bags), all passengers and crew were able to safely evacuate the aircraft. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: The fire onboard AA1006 is a great reminder to pay attention to all safety procedures during commercial flights, such as the explicit direction to leave your possessions behind, and get out of the aircraft as quickly as possible. For future reference, most aircraft in the 737 family do not have slides or inflatables on the wings of the aircraft; the emergency procedure involves the pilots lowering the flaps, which serve as the slide to egress from the aircraft. There are markings painted on the top of the wing that indicate which route to take, and to slide off of the wing using the flaps. However, in this case, most passengers who took the overwing exits were stranded on top of the wing with no way to get down (or so they thought). Since it often requires going against human instinct to slide down a wing into the unknown below (or in this case, sliding down into flame and smoke under the wing) this detail regarding the overwing exits lacking a clear and confident egress method has been noted by investigators during previous emergencies over the years. The good news is that on most 737 platforms, the wing is a maximum of approximately 10 feet from the ground at worst (depending on variant), so jumping down from any point on the wing would likely have been possible in any case. Analyst: S2A1 Research: //END REPORT//
//The Wire//2300Z March 13, 2025// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: PUTIN AGREES TO IDEA OF CEASEFIRE IN UKRAINE, BUT STRESSES DESIRE FOR A PERMANENT PEACE AGREEMENT. MALIGN ACTORS REMAIN DEDICATED TO TARGETING POLITICAL ENEMIES IN THE UNITED STATES.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Europe: This morning President Putin stated that he is supportive of a ceasefire agreement in Ukraine. In a televised media session, Putin also emphasized that a longer term peace agreement is really the end goal, not just a temporary ceasefire. AC: Of note, many media outlets (including lots of independent journalists) ran stories last night "confirming" that Putin rejected this ceasefire proposal. Normally, there is some fluidity with developing news stories, however there's usually not that much discrepancy. As a result, it would probably be wise to wait and see for a few days, and let things develop, before conducting a hard-and-fast assessment on what's going on with regards to a peace agreement. Things happen fast in the world of international relations; what starts off as a good deal can sour in an instant, and what seems impossible can in reality be quite an easy point of commonality to agree on. The common factor of all of this is that diplomacy is often a winding road, and takes time to come to a point of stability. -HomeFront- Washington D.C. - Politics continues as before, with several appointment picks being withdrawn due to controversy. Trump's pick for CDC Director (Dr. Dave Weldon) was withdrawn due to Dr. Weldon previously being critical of vaccine safety standards, and for his research to determine if there is a link between vaccines and childhood developmental disorders such as autism. Similarly, Trump's initial pick for the Deputy Director of National Intelligence (Daniel Davis) was withdrawn after the ADL deliberately lobbied against him for his views allegedly critical of the Israeli government. Texas: Multiple developments have taken place with regards to politically conservative journalists being targeted. InfoWars writer Jaime White was murdered at his home in Austin on Sunday night, after returning home from work. No indication of motive has been released by authorities indicating whether or not this was a targeted attack, or a crime of opportunity. However, following this attack, an on-air InfoWars journalist was swatted multiple times over the past few days. Separately from InfoWars, a separate politically-conservative independent journalist was swatted last night as well, along with multiple family members being swatted at their homes. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: As has been a well-known tactic among malign actors, calling in a fake horrific crime with the intent of goading police into shooting and killing a target has become an increasingly common threat vector over the past few years. Malign actors know and understand that law enforcement interacting with a civilian population in our current times is risky, and if a police officer is told that they are going into a violent crime situation to begin with, malign actors can take advantage of this heightened state of tension to increase the likelihood that a police officer will shoot someone. Thankfully, in many cases, officers don't take the bait after realizing they were used as pawns during a swatting incident. But recent American history is filled with situations where a swatting victim is not so lucky. At minimum, an innocent person being dragged from their bed in the night, to be slammed on the ground and handcuffed in front of their own home is a humiliating experience from which there is no recompense. The police, after figuring out it was a fake call, drive away like nothing happened...only for the next shift to be subject to the same fake 911 call over and over again. The result is the taxpayer spending much time handcuffed in front of their own home, again and again, with no real way to stop it from happening. It's an unfortunate and non-preventable situation to be in, as if there were to be a real crime, one would hope that a rapid response would take place. However, since there has been nearly zero focus on investigating swatting incidents, and almost zero focus on prosecuting those who engaging in swatting behavior, these types of tactics will continue for the foreseeable future, and highlight the importance of privacy for anyone who might potentially say anything offensive on the internet. Analyst: S2A1 Research: //END REPORT//
//The Wire//2300Z March 11, 2025// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: TRADE WAR BETWEEN USA/CAN CONTINUES TO ESCALATE. TRUMP TARGETS CONGRESSMEN OPPOSING OMNIBUS SPENDING BILL. AMERICAN AID TO UKRAINE RESUMES, PER STATE DEPARTMENT.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Canada: The trade war between the US and Canada continues to deteriorate as expected, with multiple short-lived diplomatic developments taking place throughout the day. This morning the White House announced an increase in tariffs to 50% for imported Canadian aluminum and steel. Within a few hours, the province of Ontario imposed a 25% tariff on electricity exports to several northeastern US states. This led to the White House announcing plans to declare a National Emergency on Electricity in the affected area. By this afternoon, Canada removed this 25% tariff on electricity, the "national emergency" hasn't been clarified at all, and negotiations have begun regarding cross-border electricity deals in the northeast. Ukraine: This afternoon the State Department announced that American military aid to Ukraine has resumed. AC: What this declaration means is anyone's guess at the moment. However, if this is a resumption of all military and financial aid to Ukraine, this would be a very significant reversal of another major issue that the White House explicitly campaigned on. Either way, time will tell, both in terms of what this looks like financially, but also how Americans will perceive this development. -HomeFront- Washington D.C. - Brief scandal has emerged following President Trump's pledge to primary Representative Thomas Massie for voting against the Republican omnibus spending bill to fund the government. As of this afternoon, the omnibus spending bill passed, with Rep. Massie being the only "no" vote from within the Republican party. The bill now heads to the Senate, where it is expected to pass. Meanwhile at the DoJ, the previous fiasco involving the release of Epstein, JFK, RFK, and MLK Jr. assassination documents has largely been forgotten. President Trump has made no comments on the issue, and more notably the White House press corps hasn't asked about it either. No new documents have been released, and the DoJ has pivoted to policing other speech-related concerns. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: The spending bill as passed in the House does not include any of the efforts undertaken by DOGE to identify fraud, waste, and abuse, meaning that all of the viral posts surrounding the DOGE audits were all for nothing if those same openly fraudulent programs get funded anyway. Rep. Massie has stated that his opposition to the bill is largely due to the bill funding exactly the same things that were funded by the past year of President Biden's reign, and that funding this bill would be identical to repeating Biden's Presidency from a budgetary perspective (until September when the Continuing Resolution expires). More generally, the conflict in Congress largely boils down to two perspectives. Trump doesn't like anyone who challenges his authority in any way, or goes against the establishment (or as some might say, the uniparty). Massie has gained notoriety by being the only Congressman who does not receive foreign lobby money (such as most notably from AIPAC). Thus, Trump's threat to oust him from office (while not levying this threat at any Democrat) is being perceived as a mistake (at best). Analyst: S2A1 Research: //END REPORT//
//The Wire//2300Z March 3, 2025// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: VEHICLE RAMMING ATTACK STRIKES MANNHEIM CARNIVAL. NOTHING NEW REGARDING EPSTEIN DOCS.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Germany: A vehicle ramming attack was carried out in Mannheim this evening. The attacker was detained at the scene. So far, one fatality was reported, with many wounded in the attack. Mannheim police have requested witnesses to stop sharing video evidence on social media. Austria: An unspecified threat at the Hauptbahnhof (central train station) in Vienna resulted in an evacuation of the station today, during the evening rush hour commute. AC: In keeping with tradition, very few details were released by authorities, however after a bomb squad sweep of the complex the alert was canceled. Though authorities have not specified the nature of the threat, most Austrian media has claimed the incident revolved around a bomb threat. Norway: A brief diplomatic scandal was reported over the weekend following the Oval Office argument between the United States and Ukraine. After Zelenskyy was removed from the White House, various European nations have also transitioned to adopt a more hostile diplomatic position toward the United States. In Norway, these icy tensions came to fruition in the form of a maritime logistics company refusing to refuel American warships as part of a defense pact with Norway. Haltbakk Bunkers (a refueling company) issued a profanity-laced statement on social media culminating with the basic idea of "no fuel for Americans". This statement was rebuffed by Norway's Defense Minister, who stated that Norway would continue to provide the agreed upon support for American naval vessels who visit Norwegian ports. AC: Additionally, it must be noted that the CEO of Haltbakk confirmed that they don't actually have any established contracts to supply American vessels in the first place (other companies hold the larger defense logistical contracts), so this short-lived economic protest would not have had any impact anyway. Ukraine: Two commercial cargo vessels were damaged in the port city of Odessa over the weekend. A Russian missile strike targeted the port and the vessels specifically due to allegedly being used for arms shipments to Ukraine. The M/V MSC LEVANTE F and the M/V SUPER SARKAS (a container ship and a bulk carrier respectively) were both struck in the attack, each suffering unknown damage. -HomeFront- Washington D.C. - All chatter surrounding the release of the Epstein client list has largely fallen away following last week's influencer binder scandal. Neither the DoJ, nor the FBI have provided a clear time window for when any new documents are scheduled to be released. As AG Bondi's original order to provide the documents has not been carried out by the FBI, she has given the FBI 14 days to explain why her order wasn't followed. AC: As this scandal has largely devolved into strongly-worded emails, finger pointing, and ultimatums that aren't acknowledged, the chances of any further disclosures of new information are becoming increasingly remote. Also in Washington, this afternoon the White House has announced the cessation of arms sales to Ukraine, as well as an increase in tariffs on Chinese trade to 20%. Following the failure of diplomatic talks, the previous trade tariffs with Canada and Mexico are set to come into effect at midnight (pending any last-minute diplomatic moves). Florida: Three separate civilian aircraft violated the closed airspace surrounding President Trump's residence at Mar-a-Lago on Saturday. These airspace violations resulted in F-16's scrambling from the 1st Air Force out of Tyndall Air Force Base to intercept the aircraft. During at least two of these interceptions flares were deployed by military aircraft to get the attention of the civilian pilots. AC: It is not clear as to why these airspace violations occurred, as the airspace has been closed around Mar-a-Lago for years. It is possible that President Trump's weekend visit prompted a brief expansion of the normal airspace cordon, which went unnoticed by pilots who failed to check recent NOTAMs before flight. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: The Mannheim attack was probably targeting the festivities of Germany's Karneval, a period of springtime festivities (similar to Marti Gras) leading up to Lent. This month-long season of festivity comprises of multiple holidays such as Rose Monday, Fasnacht Day, Ash Wednesday, Good Friday, etc. As has become common throughout Europe, this attack highlights the importance of heightened vigilance and situational awareness at any public event, but especially those with any sort of Christian tradition or affiliated with any Christian holiday. Vehicle ramming attacks remain the number one threat vector for public events, despite how easy it is to prevent these types of attacks from happening. This is extremely important to consider in the context of the current threat environment...and all of the false-threats called in all over Europe. For instance, today's fake bomb threat in Vienna provided substantial intelligence to malign actors. After the station was evacuated, all of the passengers congregated at the entrances of the facility...well within blast range of any bomb that may have been inside the station. Furthermore, the large crowd of people outside formed an ideal target for a vehicle ramming attack. Hundreds of people were tightly packed together, facing the station (and thus facing away from potential threats), all completely oblivious to the fact that this evacuation order could have been a critical first step in a much larger attack. Terrorists know and understand that merely pulling a fire alarm will result in a convenient arrangement of soft-targets vulnerable to a variety of attacks immediately outside a facility: Outside the security cordon, outside the protection of any kind of structural barrier, well away from any kind of Stop-the-Bleed kits, or security personnel. Attacking not a hard-target, but a soft-target gathered outside, has been an open and transparent threat vector for everyone to see for years, which includes malign actors. Thankfully in this case, though situational awareness failed, no attack occurred either inside the train station, or among the crowd tightly-packed outside. However (as with the Mannheim attack) these incidents provide a critical chance to highlight weaknesses in situational awareness habits, and remind us that stepping two feet outside of an evacuated building does not mitigate the threat very much at all. Analyst: S2A1 Research: //END REPORT//
//The Wire//2200Z February 27, 2025// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: EPSTEIN DOCUMENTS RELEASED TO SOCIAL MEDIA INFLUENCERS, NOT THE PUBLIC AS PROMISED FOR WEEKS.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -HomeFront- Washington D.C. - Much anticipation has resulted from earlier promises made by the White House to expedite the release of various documents. The JFK and MLK Jr. assassination files, and the Jeffrey Epstein client list have all been claimed to be released soon. However, AG Pam Bondi stated that some of the files would be released today. This afternoon, it was revealed that the release of the Jeffrey Epstein Files would take place in stages, with only pre-approved journalists and influencers being given access to these documents. This afternoon select pro-Trump influencers were invited to the White House to receive the Phase 1 documents in the form of physical binders. Also this afternoon, AG Bondi released a letter that was sent to new FBI Director Kash Patel, in which she accused the FBI of withholding critical documents from her regarding this case. As of this report, not a single page of new Epstein documentation has been released to the American public directly, or uploaded to the FBI's portal (as the older documents were released years ago). -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Over the past few weeks of hype surrounding the declassification and publishing of Jeffrey Epstein's clients, patience is wearing thin as little has been done to release the files for public consumption. Congress has gotten involved to create various committees to add more bureaucracy between the declassification of documents and the public. Just as a reminder, Congress has nothing to do with the declassification of documents. Declassification is purely a task completed by various intelligence agencies and Original Classification Authorities (OCAs). Once the OCA decides what is cleared for release (guidance which in this case comes from the POTUS), there is absolutely nothing preventing the release of declassified documents. No document requires Congressional approval to declassify, so the involvement of Congress at all is being perceived as a move intended to intentionally delay the release of these documents. Since the dawn of these highly-controversial incidents, many people with political power have been strong advocates of releasing the details pertaining to everything from JFK to Jeffrey Epstein...until they get access to the truth. Every single time the buck stops at a particular person, they start dragging their feet, and bringing the process of what is colloquially known as "the runaround". These delays have been so serious and obvious that various other groups and Congressional committees have formally filed complaints with the DoJ to pressure the executive branch to not go back on their promise. Attorney General Pam Bondi has by her own admission had the files "on her desk" for several days now but as of this afternoon, she claims that the FBI didn't send her all of the documents. Now, it is revealed that the release will take place in stages through influencers who will act as intermediaries. What has been released to these influencers is anyone's guess at this moment, though most of them are extremely unlikely to be trustworthy considering that many of the people seen at the closed-door disclosure even have direct ties to the same circle of friends that Jeffrey Epstein himself also had very close contact with. In a broader sense, this is also exceptionally dangerous. Remembering the scale of this international blackmail and human trafficking network, it is already very publicly known that former Presidents, royalty, bankers, and the very top of the global elite were involved with Jeffrey Epstein in some form or another....and it would be very foolish to approach this topic with the naivety already displayed by the influencers at the core of this scandal. Anyone who understands the gravity and real-world danger would know that this isn't just another scoop that can be milked for a 3-hour podcast episode. On the other hand, the access granted to these select group of influencers is also important in the context of privilege and control. Obviously, this information was shared with these influencers...but not all influencers. That access and preferential treatment alone is a powerful means of controlling these influencers. Due to this preferential treatment, if any one of these influencers were to have the desire to speak the truth, even if it hurts the Trump administration, they will probably be less likely to do so. Any time a negative story comes up, they'll be thinking back to the time that they got to see the Epstein files first...and they may want to rethink their truthful reporting so as to not bite the hand that fed them once. Considering this access was also granted to a select few, competition will abound between all of them...the influencer who pushes back and asks tough questions about the information they now know might not get such a warm welcome to the White House again. Despite all of this, and despite all of Trump's supporters who will make ever concession to excuse this behavior, this is not only a complete betrayal of Trump's previous promises to release the documents, but this is also nearly identical to the practices of the previous administration which preferred to interact with journalists and influencers instead of releasing anything to the public directly. This is one of the most impactful events in recent history; this scandal involves the systemic blackmail of high-ranking politicians at the behest of powerful people with links to foreign intelligence agencies...and this is being entrusted to social media influencers instead of being released directly to the American people. Influencers and "journalists" who are loyal to the current White House (and other nations) being the middlemen, who in turn decide what details to release to maximize engagement farming and ad revenue, is not something that is meeting with the approval of the American people. Some might even consider the legal implications of such to be akin to a quid-pro-quo scheme, whereby public data that every taxpayer has the right to see is being selectively withheld to enhance the income of personal friends. This seemingly minor detail may shift the mood of this event from being a rather poor-taste political stunt, into what might actually be a crime. Even though there is nuance in the social implications of this, federal law is quite clear: Either it's still classified and was released illegally to a select group of people, or it's public data that is illegally being withheld from the American people in violation of the Freedom of Information Act (FoIA). Speaking more technically of the nature of declassifying information, anyone between the Original Classification Authority and the American people is an unnecessary barrier to the truth. Every other declassified document since the dawn of time has been posted on an online government portal (usually run by the declassifying agency) in it's entirety, usually with redactions here and there, but always in an online PDF format that anyone can see. Even if the document is 100% redacted, it's still there for the public to look at. In this case, this content is being milked for all it's worth and slowly being drip-fed to the American people solely through pro-Trump influencers...many of which have conflicts of interest in this case, or ties to Jeffrey Epstein himself. Consequently, expectations for the rest of the disclosures (whatever those docs might look like) are not particularly high; most people are expecting the files to be heavily redacted, or with all of the damning evidence having long-been destroyed, or manipulated by social media influencers who can pick and choose what details to disclose. Adding in unnecessary middlemen also muddies the water of what is true, and what isn't...now (just like the previous administration) we have to process information from secondary sources, instead of primary sources. If and/or when these documents are released to the public, the taxpayer will have questions as to whether or not the version that was disclosed to the public was the same that was trickled down through the entire behemoth of federal bureaucracy and social media influencers. Though completely speculative, the general sentiment as to why the release of these files has been delayed by everyone who touches the project, pertains to who (or what entity) may be implicated in all of these scandals. Another theory is that this delay has been undertaken largely to use the federal bureaucracy to chip away at any real details, so that the final product that is released isn't helpful or illuminating at all. Or more likely, the details that will be released will only be partial, or intended to distract from other more serious crimes. There is also the rather significant detail of criminal investigations...as much as the American people want to know who Epstein's clients were, most people probably want arrests more than grifting from social media influencers. Releasing a list of names without simultaneous prosecutions of affecting any change whatsoever isn't really effective. Analyst: S2A1 Research: //END REPORT//
//The Wire//2300Z February 26, 2025// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: UKRAINE MINERAL DEAL PROGRESSES WITH THE UNITED STATES. WHITE HOUSE ANNOUNCES NEW FINANCIALLY-BASED PATH TO CITIZENSHIP.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Europe: Talks between the United States and Ukraine have continued with regards to a trade deal involving rare earth minerals. This deal, which has been the source of controversy, will enable the export of Ukrainian minerals in exchange for continued American aid. AC: So far, nothing has been signed, however both Kiev and Washington have signaled that terms have been agreed upon. At the moment, it's not certain how much this mineral deal will actually come to fruition; most of the mineral wealth of Ukraine currently is located either in active combat zones or in areas that have long been under Russian control. Chile: This morning a transformer outage resulted in a nearly-nationwide electrical blackout. This outage affected not only residential areas, but large commercial centers and mining operations. -HomeFront- Washington D.C. - President Trump announced a new financial-based greencard program yesterday. This new "Gold Card" program will allow foreign nationals to purchase legal American residency (and an expedited path to citizenship) for a one-time lump-sum payment of $5 million. This program is reported to replace the EB-5 visa program. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Trump's Gold Card program (as announced) has been perceived as highly controversial as it echoes the recent sentiments which resulted in the quiet dismissal of would-be DOGE co-director Vivek Ramaswamy (who, despite the recent scandal, is now running for Governor of Ohio). Ramaswamy's continual comments on social media equating the American experience as one of interchangeable economic units was perceived by many as being purely extractive and exploitive in nature, resulting in his quiet departure from federal government. For clarity, this "Gold Card" program has existed before in the form of various levels of investment visas/greencards. However, the White House floating the idea of revamping and streamlining the program to allow foreign nationals to purchase citizenship is being perceived to be just as exploitive of the American people as Vivek's prior comments which got him in trouble. Many citizens do not believe that America is Dubai, (a place which only exists to serve foreign investment opportunities), but these recent policy decisions don't do very much to dissuade that line of thinking. At a certain point (and regardless of political beliefs), a series of words and actions is no longer a mistake or improper phrasing...it is a policy decision that reignites the questions of what it means to be American in the first place. This is very likely to be the reason that Ramaswamy's comments could not be "clarified" into being something more palatable...once the American population knows what a person's core values are, it's hard to walk-back those comments. Consequently, this "gold card" announcement has also reignited the prior discrepancies between Trump's supporter base, and his personal doctrine regarding issues that his own supporter base perceives as being a weak point, such as legal immigration. As such, it's possible that previously-dismissed (and seemingly minor) issues with Trump's proposed policies during the campaign really aren't minor nit-picking differences of opinion, but rather deep-seated differences of core values that will have to be acknowledged at some point. How much these details matter will be up for personal interpretation, but right now the general sentiment expressed in the global west is that giving a person an American passport does not magically make them compatible with American culture or heritage. Whether that is true or not will be debated for years to come. However, in the meantime, streamlining the process to bring other people here by putting a price tag on what it means to exist in America leaves a sour taste for many of those who worked to elect Trump with the goal of preserving their own existence in the American homeland. Analyst: S2A1 Research: //END REPORT//
//The Wire//2300Z February 25, 2025// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: CARTEL VIOLENCE CONTINUES SOUTH OF U.S. BORDER. GERMAN CDU REVERSES STANCE ON IMMIGRATION POLICIES AFTER ELECTION.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Germany: Following the weekend election cycle, discontent has been a common observation as various politicians have backtracked on campaign promises. CDU leadership, for instance, has deliberately flipped on their main campaign issue regarding immigration. During the campaign, the CDU's primary initiative was to limit immigration into Germany. After the election, CDU leadership (presumptive Chancellor Friedrich Merz) reneged on this promise, stating that the border will not be closed. AC: Though unsurprising to most who had the foresight to perceive this European tradition of complete policy reversals after elections, many others are rather upset as this sharp reversal affects a policy issue pertinent to most Germans. -HomeFront- Washington D.C. - Controversy continues in Congress regarding Rep. Dan Crenshaw's threat to murder Tucker Carlson. Crenshaw was caught making the comment during a hot-mic incident as part of a media interview a few days ago. Southern Border Region: Following the IED incident in Tamaulipas earlier this month, Texas authorities have issued more warnings pertaining to the use of Improvised Anti-Vehicle Land Mines (IAVMs) in the vicinity of the border. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: For clarification, this afternoon the Texas Department of Agriculture issued a warning to ranchers in the border region, warning them about the IED incident that occurred earlier this month. This warning statement was poorly worded, and did not provide the context that the event occurred nearly a month ago, and took place in Mexico almost a hundred miles south of the US border. The notice also referred to an American citizen being killed in the IED blast, however the wording of this announcement is slightly misleading since there is zero mention of the IED blast actually occurring inside Mexico. This missing context (and the contradictory details originating from sources with unknown veracity), is important to understand in terms of assessing the risk as accurately as possible. Over the past few months, clashes of increasing severity have been reported between the Gulf Cartel (CDG) and the Northeast Cartel (CDN) as both groups (but more importantly, various splinter groups from these two main organizations) continue the turf war south of Brownsville. Increased use of IEDs and weaponized drones has been reported semi-randomly throughout this increased period of conflict, with many innocent victims frequently being caught in the crossfire. So far the IED threat has not transitioned north across the border yet, however local authorities continue to issue the warnings nonetheless. Far more concerning are the increasingly significant small arms attacks and skirmishes that have taken place at the border itself over the past few weeks, between adversarial cartel groups. Analyst: S2A1 Research: //END REPORT//
//The Wire//2300Z February 24, 2025// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: GERMAN ELECTION RESULTS IN GAINS FOR THE AFD, THOUGH CDU/CSU TAKES LEAD. POPE FRANCIS REMAINS IN CRITICAL CONDITION. AMERICAN GOVERNMENT EFFICIENCY INITIATIVES DRAW IRE OF FEDERAL WORKERS.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Vatican City: Over the weekend the Vatican confirmed that Pope Francis remains in critical condition regarding his previous illness. Germany: Sunday's election resulted in Friedrich Merz becoming the new Chancellor, as the CDU/CSU took 33% of the vote. While falling short of any sort of majority, the AfD party surprised many by coming in second place, winning 24% of the vote. AC: The key takeaway from this election is that the AfD now has more bargaining power than in previous years, albeit falling short of their own goals. Though by American standards the AfD is a rather lukewarm center-right party (at best), throughout Germany the AfD party has been vilified as extreme-far-right (which may be technically true for Germany's perspective, by comparison with other political parties). As such, this signals a significant shift in atmospherics throughout the nation, even if radical changes in the grand scheme of national politics will be challenging to arrive at.. -HomeFront- New York: Sunday evening American Airlines Flight 292 bound for Delhi was diverted to Rome due to a bomb threat. After a security inspection in Rome detected no threat to the aircraft, the flight was cleared for departure to Delhi. AC: These types of bomb threats are relatively common. Though American Airlines has not specified the exact details of what resulted in the brief diversion, it is very likely that a threat was received (probably on social media) that referenced this specific flight, which caused the security concerns. Georgia: This morning Delta Flight 876 (bound for Columbia, SC from Atlanta) experienced an in-flight emergency via smoke filling the passenger cabin. The aircraft promptly returned to Atlanta due to the smoke. California: Saturday night, Delta Flight 43 (bound for Sydney from Los Angeles) also experienced an in-flight emergency with smoke filling the passenger cabin. AC: Of note, though two separate emergencies of similar characteristics (and via the same airline) occurring within 24 hours of each other is rare, it must be noted that both smoke incidents involved separate airframes. The Los Angeles emergency involved an Airbus A350, and the Atlanta incident involved a smaller regional jet, a Boeing 717-200. Washington D.C. - Controversy has erupted over the past few days regarding various initiatives to improve the efficiency of government agencies. Over the weekend an email was sent out from the Office of Personnel Management (OPM) to every single federal employee, requesting them to provide a short list of 5 bullets regarding what they had completed last week. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: As the OPM email was sent out to everyone, from every single military service member to the highest-paid directors of various federal agencies, mass pandemonium has largely been the result. The initial knee-jerk reaction for many department directors of various levels of bureaucracy has been to order their subordinates to not reply to the email. The Department of Defense also issued guidance to prevent all service members from responding to the email as well. Analyst: S2A1 Research: //END REPORT//
//The Wire//2300Z February 20, 2025// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: THOUGHT CRIMES REMAIN CONCERNING THROUGHOUT EUROPE. KASH PATEL CONFIRMED AS FBI DIRECTOR. TWO JUVENILES ARRESTED FOR ALLEGED SCHOOL ATTACK PLOT IN TEXAS.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Scotland: This morning a 74-year-old woman was arrested for speech and thought crimes. Rose Docherty (a well known, pro-life advocate) was arrested for demonstrating via standing on a sidewalk outside Queen Elizabeth University Hospital, a very large medical complex that houses abortion facilities. At the time of her arrest she was holding a sign that read "Coercion is a crime, here to talk, only if you want". -HomeFront- Texas: Two juveniles were arrested for an alleged plot to attack a school in Houston. The two unidentified girls, aged 15 and 16, allegedly posted the details of the plot on social media. Washington D.C. - In Congress, Kash Patel was confirmed as the next Director of the FBI this afternoon. This morning Senator Mitch McConnell announced that he will be stepping down from his seat in the Senate. AC: This is not an immediate resignation, but rather an announcement that he will not seek reelection next year. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: The arrest of Rose Docherty was made under the so-called "buffer zone" laws, which have recently gained scrutiny after being denounced by American Vice President JD Vance. Regardless of the recent media coverage, the policing of thought crimes and the persecution of Christianity throughout Scotland, the British Isles, and almost all of western Europe has remained a little-discussed (yet exceptionally grave) concern for many years. Silent Christian prayer, even including praying inside one's own home, has been relentlessly targeted by authorities, drawing the ire of those who have been subjected to public Islamic calls for prayer, which have included the participation of hundreds of official government officials and buildings. As pointed out by American diplomats (such as JD Vance), this double standard is a very large societal problem that is impacting civilization itself throughout Europe. Regarding the alleged threats in Texas, neither of the two girls were attendees of the school which was threatened (Memorial High School), both were students at neighboring schools. While inter-school rivalries are extremely common throughout the nation, in this case authorities state that the undisclosed attack details were specific and credible enough to warrant the arrests. However, the FBI is the lead agency in charge of this investigation, which has caused doubts due to the FBI's long and very questionable history pertaining to these types of events. Analyst: S2A1 Research: //END REPORT//
//The Wire//2300Z February 19, 2025// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: WAR EXPANDS IN THE CONGO. TENSIONS BUILD BETWEEN THE US AND UKRAINE FOLLOWING ZELENSKY BEING SIDE-LINED DURING PEACE TALKS.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC): The advance by M23 rebels in the eastern districts of the country has continued, with the rebels capturing the city of Bukavu yesterday. Separately, in the northeastern region of Bunia, Uganda launched an invasion of their own, deploying special forces soldiers throughout the region. AC: The flimsy attempt to conceal the M23 "rebels" as an independent group has largely fallen away, as the military uniforms that the "rebels" are now wearing more or less confirm that these forces are in fact mercenaries slow-walking a Rwandan invasion of the DRC. Uganda now wanting a piece of the action is very likely to escalate the situation further, and probably marks a new era of the decades-long conflict. Europe: Tensions remain elevated between the United States and Ukraine, with Ukrainian leader Zelensky expressing a variety of hostile sentiments towards the United States for himself not being invited to the peace talks conference currently underway in Saudi Arabia. -HomeFront- USA: The arrival of winter weather conditions throughout much of the central and eastern parts of the nation has caused significant travel delays. Many airlines have issued ground stops for much of the central United States due to poor weather conditions. In Kentucky, the casualty figure has risen to 14x fatalities resulting from the recent flooding disasters throughout much of the state. Arizona: This morning an aircraft collision was reported at the Marana Regional Airport, which resulted in the destruction of two small planes. Two fatalities were reported as a result of the collision. AC: As the focus remains on aviation mishaps nationwide, it will be up to the individual to conduct their own analysis to determine if these events are happening more often, or if the increased media coverage is skewing the overall risk assessment. Washington D.C. - Various Presidential actions continue, with a handful of cartels being formally designated as Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTOs) this afternoon. AC: This decision was made weeks ago, and already in practice as evidenced by the significant intelligence collection efforts recently undertaken by the United States in Mexico. As the formalization of this decision is solidified in policy, the ball is now in the court of the various cartels to determine what their reaction will be. On the diplomatic front, relations between the United States and Russia have improved significantly over the past few days, at the expense of rapidly deteriorating relations with Ukraine and most of Europe. Russian President Vladimir Putin announced an official restoration of diplomatic relations between the United States and Russia, as part of ongoing conversations pertaining to peace talks. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: As has long been theorized since the start of the war (and as the conflict in Ukraine draws to a close), a lot of things are going to happen in very rapid succession. Perhaps most frustratingly, a lot of things are going to happen that may seem to be nonsensical to some. This is due to the rabid censorship efforts over the past few years that have painted a specific picture...the vast majority of those in the west have largely been looking at the war through a lens that is completely one-sided. This is nothing new, however, reality is often a great equalizer in the realm of information warfare...at a certain point all of the propaganda and gaslighting falls away to reveal the reality of the situation. In the case of Ukraine, there are many people who likely still believe everything they have heard about the war, the motivations for the conflict beginning, and so on. As such, when the lies are increasingly more and more detached from the truth, the more damage is done; the bigger the lies are, the harder they fall. Over the next few weeks, the American taxpayer is going to learn a lot of inconvenient truths, and as a result may feel a level of betrayal as the situation does not turn out the way that it has been portrayed for years. More specifically, harsh statements will very likely continue to be traded between the United States and Ukraine as it becomes more clear that ever since the West became involved in the conflict Ukraine has had very little agency or leeway to decide their own fate. Ukrainian leaders may even seek to bite the hand that feeds them, as that hand starts feeding them less. Likewise, many European nations which have been involved in the war will probably continue to express hostile sentiment toward the United States (as Germany already has), for a variety of reasons: some probably justifiable, some not so much. Either way, the rapid pivot away from the policy of the past four years is likely to cause issues domestically among Americans who have differing (and often combative) opinions on the war. Analyst: S2A1 Research: //END REPORT//
//The Wire//2300Z February 17, 2025// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: SEVERE WEATHER STRIKES APPALACHIA, MAJOR FLOODING REPORTED. MUNICH SECURITY CONFERENCE CONCLUDES IN EUROPE.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Europe: The Munich Security Conference concluded yesterday, with the focus on Ukraine being palpable among participants. While no real progress was made publicly with regards to a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, various actors have made their positions more clear. British PM Kier Starmer declared his willingness to send British soldiers to fight in Ukraine. Germany spent most of the time responding negatively to American statements that urged Germany to pay for their own defense. American Vice President JD Vance spent much of the summit pointing out the freedom of speech problems within Europe at large, signaling a new era of American concerns on the topic, as well as indicating a hard turnaround of American foreign policy away from a multipolar Europe. On the sidelines, the Ukrainian War remained a concern, with Ukrainian leader Zelenskyy expressing increasing levels of irritation that Ukraine is being sidelined with regards to the negotiations to end the war. Canada: This afternoon a catastrophic aircraft crash was reported in Toronto. Delta Flight 4819 suffered a mishap while landing at Pearson International Airport, which resulted in the removal of both wings and the debris coming to a rest on the runway upside down. The fuselage remained mostly intact during the crash landing, and all passengers and crew are reported to have survived at this time. AC: As this is a developing situation, not much is known with any certainly regarding what caused the crash landing. However, weather conditions were less than ideal at the time of the incident. -HomeFront- Southeastern U.S. - Disaster strikes Appalachia again as severe storms have caused unprecedented flooding throughout the region over the past few days. Most of the severe flooding has been reported in Kentucky, which has resulted in 8 fatalities so far. Virginia has also been host to severe flooding, and significant power outages have been reported throughout the Mid-Atlantic, to the northeastern United States. FEMA has been activated, and most of the various jurisdictions throughout the region have varying levels of emergency declarations in place. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: The weather events throughout the eastern United States are compounded by not only the winter weather that occurred before the flooding, but additional weather systems that are expected to sweep through the region over the next few days. Catastrophic flooding is bad enough during the best of times, but disaster recovery efforts are made exponentially more difficult when heavy snowfall and freezing temperatures are expected throughout the disaster area. Throughout the disaster zone, power outages during cold weather conditions will also undoubtedly result in more complications and more pressing needs, as many people throughout the region rely on electricity to heat their homes. Analyst: S2A1 Research: //END REPORT//
Approximately one hour ago, a small commercial aircraft was reported as being overdue while conducting a routine flight in Alaska. A Cessna Caravan (tail number N321BA) operating for Bering Air was reportedly carrying 10x souls at the time of being reported missing. I have pulled the aircraft's flight path, and imported all data I have to the CIP/COP Map below: Unfortunately it's not much, but I've plotted my best guess for where the aerial search is likely to be conducted. So far at least one search and rescue aircraft has been observed heading to the aircraft's last known location. I hope to have more information (and hopefully good news) by morning; this is just what I have completed tonight.
//The Wire//2300Z February 6, 2025// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: USAID DISCLOSURE SCANDAL CONTINUES. MINOR AIRCRAFT COLLISION AT SEA-TAC.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Greece: Earthquakes continue as before, and increase in magnitude. Most of the earthquake clusters remain centered to the northeast of the volcanic island of Santorini. A state of emergency has been declared as the island has experienced around 7,700 earthquakes over the past week. Philippines: Overnight a US government-affiliated aircraft crashed in Maguindanao del Sur, resulting in the deaths of four American crew members. One active duty soldier, and three US military contractors were killed in the crash. AC: Details have been hard to come by as this aircraft was an Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) asset. Anytime a spy plane crashes, the details regarding the circumstances of the crash will usually not be disclosed. The aircraft itself was a heavily-modified Beechcraft King Air 350 registered as N349CA. -HomeFront- Washington D.C. - The White House has walked back President Trumps claims on his plan for Gaza, with the White House stating that the United States will not be sending boots on ground to achieve his goals. The White House also stated that the American taxpayer will not be funding this venture. Yesterday afternoon SECDEF Hegseth reaffirmed American support to Israel, and stated that "all options" are being considered with regards to American involvement in the Middle East. Also in Washington, scandal continues to develop regarding the audit of USAID, and the various entities that this agency was sending tax dollars to. Washington: A minor aircraft collision was reported in Seattle, as a Japan Airlines aircraft collided with a Delta aircraft while taxiing. Japan Airlines Flight 68 struck the tail of Delta Flight 1921 last night, resulting in minor damage to both aircraft. AC: No injuries were reported and this appears to be a fairly common aviation mishap. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Although no formal evacuation orders have been issued in Santorini, many Greeks have departed the island voluntarily. Local media reports that roughly 12,000 people have already left the island, even though most of the earthquakes have been comparatively small. Nevertheless, local concern is beginning to mount, leading to many locals making preparations just in case. Analyst: S2A1 Research: //END REPORT//
//The Wire//1800Z February 5, 2025// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: TRUMP ANNOUNCES AMERICA WILL SEIZE GAZA STRIP. USA WITHDRAWS FROM UNITED NATIONS HUMAN RIGHTS COUNCIL.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -HomeFront- Washington D.C. - As part of a press conference conducted in conjunction with PM Netanyahu's visit to the United States, President Trump suddenly announced several startling policy decisions. First, President Trump reiterated multiple times that he supports the forced expulsion of every human soul in Gaza, into other nations such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, or Jordan (among others). Secondly, President Trump declared that the United States will seize control of Gaza, and be responsible for managing the entire Strip. AC: As most people were rather taken aback by this bold statement, and even though Trump reiterated his words and articulated his thoughts very clearly, no one is really sure what this means in practice. Also in Washington, President Trump signed an executive order withdrawing the United States from the United Nations Human Rights Council. AC: It's not clear how this will work out, since this appears to be contradictory to Trump's stated goals in Gaza. For instance, this (and other executive actions) have resulted in a complete defunding of the UNRWA. To many America-first voters, this may seem to be a positive budget cut at face value. However, this agency (and the UN at large) is really the only entity in the region that is corralling the refugees in Gaza. As such, if Trump wants to defund the only civilian groups that can facilitate the mass exodus of Palestinians to wherever they are destined to be, the only other options are to use military logistics to achieve this forced migration. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: For those that do not understand the sheer magnitude of President Trump's policy decision in Gaza, this is a once-in-a-century policy decision the magnitude of which is impossible to convey. Even if this is a negotiation tactic (for instance, to oversell American involvement, so that the counter-offer of Israeli occupation of Gaza looks reasonable by comparison), this is an unprecedented line of logic altogether. As stated (with much fatigue) many times before, the issue regarding the current war in the Middle East is the most hot-button issue there is, with many states (and the US government) quite literally making certain opinions on this war illegal, to some degree. So right up front, no honest discussion can be had, even by those who have the most innocent and/or neutral intentions. This is one of the most important details to remember moving forward. Nevertheless, any comments on President Trump's recently announced policy decisions in the Middle East probably will (rather tiresomely) not have much weight at all or be able to change what is about to happen. Pushing aside the literal Merriam-Webster's definition of ethnic cleansing (and the destabilization that brings), if Trump is indeed serious about his aspirations for owning beachfront property in Gaza, he may find that getting there is more challenging than he previously thought. Trump theorizing about invading Greenland or Panama does not ring the same as invading Gaza, one of the most heavily militarized regions on Earth. Just to wargame the significance of this for a moment, in 1990, the U.S. military invaded Panama as part of Operation Just Cause, with the goal of ousting General Manuel Noriega from power. The United States achieved this goal in 41 days after very little effort on the part of the Panamanian forces. Greenland, being an arctic nation largely centered around one or two main (but still very small) cities would not really be much of a military challenge either. Gaza, on the other hand, presents one of the most significant military challenges possible in warfare...an entrenched adversary, who is strongly dug in throughout an urban area. Even Israel, largely cratering the entire Strip, has not been able to have nearly the military success that they wanted. Bottom line: If the U.S. Military can't even build a single bridge in Gaza there's very little chance of a military campaign going as intended. No one who has seen true war wishes that experience on anyone else, and certainly not for the end result to be a five star hotel on a beach, as has been publicly conveyed already, before any of this gets started. As stated previously, peace can come about in two ways, through a negotiated end to arms, or by killing/removing every living soul on one side of the conflict. With Trump's highly-detailed comments, no one, not even the most staunch and die-hard Trump supporter, can deny that he has made his aspirations very publicly known. Once again, this may seem like a fickle detail, but it really does matter...the United States is looking to invade another nation not because they flew planes into our buildings, or because of a general idea of "freedom".....Trump has directly stated this is purely for real estate purposes, publicly pontificating the Gaza skyline and musing on the commercial ventures that the highly-lucrative beachfront access offers in Gaza. It's hard enough to get a population to send their sons to die halfway around the world for some other country's "freedom", but it's another thing entirely to get people to die for a Burger King parking lot. Once again, if this whole thing is a grand game of bluff, and even if it never comes to fruition, the damage has already been done in the form of long-standing international norms being fractured. Even just a few years ago, diplomats would exert the most extreme care when speaking about the Middle East, and now, this radical policy shift will probably have unintended consequences...such as heightening the terrorism risk here at home. Speaking more broadly regarding the current threat environment in the United States, of course the entire Arab/Islamic world probably will be rather upset by this policy shift, and thus not entirely friendly to the United States (especially those currently living in the United States). Considering the current shake-ups in government, it was probably an unwise decision to piss off all of the FBI agents (who now have the perfect motivation to let a terror attack slip through, just to spite Trump) at the same moment the risk of Islamic retaliatory terror attacks is extraordinarily high. Anytime a people are quite literally pressed up against a wall, and know with 100% certainty that they will be forcibly removed from their homes, never to return again, they will fight to the death. Even Israel was smart enough to gaslight the Palestinians into thinking that the millions of refugees would someday be allowed to go back to what was left of their homes, as the Israeli government knew the power of an enemy that has no hope for a peaceful existence one day. Now, President Trump has removed the illusion altogether, not just for the Palestinians, but for the whole world. The United States has zero moral ground to stand on by opposing Russia's invasion of Ukraine at this point, as even Russia is not really interested in exiling every single human being in their new "occupied territories" to a completely different nation. On the exact same day President Trump announced this shocking policy shift, the White House also announced that he would be attending the Super Bowl this weekend in New Orleans. As a reminder, this exact same city was host to a complex Islamic-based terror attack a mere 32 days ago. It was also probably a rather poor judgement call for President Trump to state that if Iran were to assassinate him, Iran would be annihilated.....because this creates the conditions for a third party to carry out some malign act...and blame it on the Iranians. Trump has told the world that his demise would result in a total destruction of Iran...which is what Israel wants more than anything else. Netanyahu even gifted President Trump a golden pager during his state visit yesterday...a very clear, bold, and morbid message indeed. All in all, the conditions are nearly perfect for the situation to get out of hand; even if this is a grand game of bluff, the escalation of risk is exceptionally great when it comes to the terrorism risks this game brings to the table. Bullying Canada (and to some extent, the Mexican government) is nothing compared to inflaming tensions with the Muslim world...and this could not have come at a worse time. Most federal law enforcement agencies are angry at Trump for personal reasons (many of which are about to be fired, and thus have nothing to lose by doing their jobs poorly). Most people of Islamic faith or more generally supporters of the Palestine movement now have more motive than ever to conduct some sort of attack, and quite literally none of the personal threats to Trump (from the campaign) have really been addressed at all. Even the two attempts on Trump's life during the campaign just fizzled out of the news cycle and no real answers ever came from the counterterrorism world on what actually happened in each case. Even Trump's own supporters have to be conducting some sort of retrospective analysis at this point. Americans have to assess their future based on the words AND actions of their nation's leadership; for better or worse, this is a huge planning factor with variable importance. Granted, in the long run, all of this is is largely unimportant as people will eventually forget the things a person does. They'll forget the remarks, they'll forget the documents that were signed...but they won't forget how a person made them feel. And right now, it's become patently obvious that President Trump has kinder words for the people of Israel, than for the citizens of his own nation. If Trump's actions/policies are 99% good for the country, but that last 1% involves occupying yet another hostile desert country in the Middle East, what was the net gain? To be sure, there's always the "this is just 5d chess" crowd, who will take any negative action by President Trump and try to turn it somehow into a positive action. Even as this report is written, scores of heavy-hitting pro-Trump influencers are heavily perpetuating the Sunk Cost Fallacy, gaslighting their fans into thinking that an American occupation of Gaza really is the best option. Or that this is some masterful "Art of the Deal" negotiating tactic. At this point, rejecting the words that have come directly out of Trump's mouth, verbatim, is a rejection of reality itself. At some point the American people are going to have to understand that the end result is what matters most, not what the initial intentions were. Somewhat ironically, the love of Trump from the political right, and the hatred of Trump from the political left, are equally illogical and ignorant of the reality of the situation. This alone makes any sort of semi-neutral perspective despised by both sides. But this also means that this is all the more reason for the average citizen to step up, try to do the right thing, and contribute the best they can in steering the ship through the tough times ahead. Analyst: S2A1 Research: //END REPORT//