This week's intel update is out!

//The Wire//2200Z May 2, 2025// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: UNITED STATES TO REDUCE DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS REGARDING UKRAINE PEACE TALKS. GERMANY DESIGNATES AFD PARTY AS AN EXTREMIST ORG.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----   -International Events- Germany: Yesterday Germany's main domestic spying agency publicly classified the entire Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party as a far-right extremist organization. This prompted the United States to issue statements of condemnation, as German authorities crack down on growing dissent via the open use of domestic intelligence agencies. Germany: This afternoon a vehicle ramming incident was reported in Stuttgart after a vehicle collided with a group of people waiting at a bus stop. A total of 11x people were wounded and at least one victim has succumbed to their wounds. The driver of the vehicle was arrested at the scene. AC: It's not immediately clear as to if this was a legitimate and deliberate terror attack, or if it was more of a tragic motor vehicle accident. Local authorities claim that the incident was merely a traffic accident, however German police have been known to openly lie about terrorist attacks being terror attacks, so this is an unreliable source for determining causation. In any case, the driver being arrested for questioning after the incident could indicate that it was a more deliberate attack.  -HomeFront- Washington D.C. - This morning the White House announced that the USA will take a reduced role in the continuation of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. Spokeswoman Tammy Bruce stated that “It is now between the two parties, and now — now is the time that they need to present and develop concrete ideas about how this conflict is going to end. It’s going to be up to them". AC: The United States will probably not walk away from this war as much as one might be inclined to think based on this statement. This sentiment is probably intended to force both Russia and Ukraine back to the table and to get serious about a peace deal. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: The classification of the AfD party in Germany as an extremist group is completely unsurprising, especially as the latest polling data suggests the AfD might actually be the largest support base in the country. Interestingly enough, the agency that issued this label is the Bundesamt für Verfassungsschutz (BfD), or Germany's main domestic intelligence service. While most other nations frame their intelligence services as being foreign in nature (at least on paper), Germany does indeed have a modern day domestic equivalent to the STASI, the infamous intelligence service of the Cold War. What's perhaps most interesting is that the AfD party isn't really a right-wing or conservative party...even by European standards. It's generally described as a centrist party, at most. Even by American standards, most of the AfD's political platform is in alignment with the American Democratic party. Germany using their domestic spying agencies to crack down on this group and open up a wealth of tools to not just spy on, but actually kinetically target members of this party, is a very interesting development that points out just how far to the political left the federal institutions are in Germany. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

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//The Wire//2300Z May 1, 2025// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: UKRAINE SIGNS MINERAL DEAL WITH USA. NSA MIKE WALZ AND DEPUTY FIRED.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----   -International Events- Europe: Yesterday afternoon the White House announced that the United States and Ukraine have signed the previously mentioned mineral deal.  -HomeFront- Washington D.C. - This morning National Security Advisor Mike Walz and Deputy advisor Alex Wong have resigned from their positions for their roles in the recent scandal involving the editor of The Atlantic being added to a secret group chat on Signal. This afternoon, President Trump announced that Mike Walz is to become the US Ambassador to the United Nations. AC: No word yet on who will be Walz's replacement though Special Envoy Steve Witkoff has been speculated to be in the running for the role by various commentators. USA: Around the nation, various May Day protests and demonstrations were carried out in most major US cities, with varying levels of turnout. Continuing tradition, the largest demonstration was conducted on the National Mall, with thousands of protesters engaging in the traditionally anti-Capitalist protest actions customary of the holiday. AC: Most of these protests remained relatively docile (by historical comparison), though in Europe several riots were reported (such as in Paris, again continuing tradition). In the United States however, turnout was rather low compared to years past. A few thousand people rallied on the National Mall, and a few hundred/thousand showed up to hear Bernie Sanders speak in Vermont, but that was more or less the highlight of today's May Day events. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: The details of the mineral deal signed by the USA and Ukraine have not been released. However, this is unlikely to matter much in the long run. The mineral deal was never really that much of a serious effort anyway, and was really just an attempt by the United States to financially recoup some of the heavy costs of funding this war. As such, the specific details of the deal probably don't matter as much as one might imagine; the United States will take what they can get, which will without question be less than what Ukraine has to offer. What's far more important is that this deal signals an end to the recent spat between Trump and Zelenskyy, which is a necessary first step towards a peace agreement being put on the table at some point. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

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//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z April 30, 2025// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: UKRAINE REJECTS CEASEFIRE OFFER. TEXAS HOUSE PASSES SPEECH CRIME BILL. WHITE POWDER FOUND IN ENVELOPE MAILED TO NY CRIMINAL COURT, EMERGENCY RESPONSE ONGOING.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----   -International Events- Ukraine: Zelenskyy has rejected the ceasefire proposal announced by Russia. Various Ukrainian media outlets have stated that the reason for the rejection is that Ukraine wants to pursue a 30-day ceasefire instead of the 72-hour cessation of hostilities announced by Russia. Southern Europe: Most of the electrical outages throughout the continent have subsided as investigations into the cause have continued. So far, no official cause for the outage has been released.  -HomeFront- Wisconsin: The state Supreme Court has suspended Judge Hannah Dugan from the bench for her role in aiding and abetting the escape of an illegal immigrant from her courtroom. Texas: House Bill 366 passed in the House last night. This bill is highly-controversial as it contains vague language that under many circumstances bans political memes and media that does not explicitly have a government-approved warning disclaimer. The bill now heads to the Senate for a vote. Texas: The bond for Solomon Weldekeal-Araya has been reduced from $1.2 million to $7,000 by a Travis County judge. Weldekeal-Araya was arrested in March for causing a pileup on I-35 that killed 5x people and injured 11x. New York: This afternoon an envelope filled with an unidentified white powder was mailed to the New York Criminal Court. Upon the discovery of the mysterious substance, 7x people were hospitalized out of an abundance of caution. AC: As this is a developing story at the time of this report, there are very few details that are confirmed. However, considering the context of the increased risks of terrorism around the nation, an abundance of caution would be wise to adhere to. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Regarding the power outage in Spain, most European media groups are sticking with the story that some kind of electromagnetic phenomenon caused the outage. This is almost certainly a fabrication. No abnormal electromagnetic interference was reported throughout the whole continent on the day of the outage. Both NASA and ESA solar weather forecasts confirmed no abnormal sunspots or anything out of the ordinary. No watches or warnings of impending solar weather were issued that day either. None of the smaller electrical interconnects throughout the continent experienced any sort of variation whatsoever. If this was a global electromagnetic interference situation, the Earth must have recognized international land borders, since Spain and Portugal were pretty much the only nations affected. (Southern France's power came back on only after a few minutes in some cases.) Spain's own state-sponsored meteorology agency (AEMET) stated directly that "No unusual meteorological or atmospheric phenomena were detected in Spain on April 28th, nor were there any sudden temperature fluctuations at our network of weather stations". In Texas, there is already a substantial amount of information manipulation regarding HB366. Supporters of the bill state that it is intended to stop political candidates from memeing each other. This is still very obviously unconstitutional, but this appears to be the goal. The bigger problem (where this bill applies to most people, not just political candidates) is that this bill also applies to anyone who uses a meme in a form of employment whereby at least $100 is earned. In short, it seems as though Texas has re-defined what is considered to be "political advertising" in such a way as to be an extremely broad definition. Opponents of the bill have stated that this is a textbook case of illegal censorship, and is one of the most blatant attacks on free speech in recent memory. As expected, the bill passed with overwhelming bipartisan support, with 45 Republicans and 61 Democrats voting in the affirmative for this bill. There was no debate on the House floor regarding this vote, nor were any questions asked regarding this bill; it passed without comment. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

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//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2100Z April 29, 2025// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: LIBERAL PARTY WINS CANADIAN ELECTION. DISTURBANCE ON FLIGHT IN BRAZIL CAUSES DELAYS. FIREFIGHTER MURDERED BY HIGH-RISK INDIVIDUAL JUST RELEASED ON BAIL.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----   -International Events- Canada: Yesterday's election resulted in a narrow win for the Liberal candidate Mark Carney, who is to remain Prime Minister after being passed the role by Justin Trudeau a few weeks ago. Brazil: This morning a disturbance was reported onboard an American Airlines flight bound for New York. Shortly after boarding was conducted on flight AA950, a woman became belligerent and attempted to rush the cockpit. The woman was restrained by the flight crew, and was removed from the flight (along with a different man who became agitated during the incident as well), which then proceeded to it's destination without further incident. AC: This probably wasn't a deliberate terrorist attack; most of the videos of the incident suggest it was more of a mental health incident. However, since the aircraft was still at the gate, the cockpit door was left open (per standard procedure), so the flight crew had a hard time keeping the woman out of the cockpit during the incident. Sweden: This afternoon a small arms attack was reported in Uppsala, a small town just north of Stockholm. 3x people were killed during the attack, which reportedly broke out inside a hair salon near Vaksala Square. The attackers remain at large, having fled the scene in a vehicle. Police have not provided any details regarding the attackers. AC: At the moment, it's not clear as to if this was a mass shooting and/or targeting of random civilians, or if this was more along the lines of a skirmish between rival gangs. The immigration crisis faced by Stockholm has been a major contributing factor for gang violence, which often breaks out in the form of bombings and skirmishes in the streets between rival groups.  -HomeFront- New Mexico: Jose Luis Cano and his wife have been released from jail. The former magistrate judge and his wife were released after each posted a $10,000 bond. Missouri: Yesterday a firefighter was fatally stabbed by a patient in Kansas City. Firefighter and Paramedic Graham Hoffman was stabbed by Shanetta Bossell while en route to the hospital. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: The murder in Kansas City is the direct result of a judge releasing a violent criminal knowing that the criminal was a threat to society. In this case, Bossell had been released from jail pending a different case that had occurred just a few days prior. On April 23, Bossell attempted to break into a police officer's personal vehicle with a brick. During the response and subsequent fray, she bit the officer several times and attempted to stab him with his own knife, prompting her arrest on a slew of charges. On Friday, regardless of the violence displayed by this individual, Judge Louis Angles set a bond of $10,000 for her, despite the prosecutor explicitly arguing that she was a danger to the community. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

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//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z April 28, 2025// //PRIORITY// //BLUF: VEHICLE RAMMING ATTACK KILLS 11X IN VANCOUVER, CAN. MAJOR BLACKOUT UNDERWAY IN SOUTHERN EUROPE. GROUND STOP ISSUED FOR NEWARK DUE TO RADIO COMMS OUTAGE. CEASEFIRE IN UKRAINE TO BEGIN ON MAY 8TH. LIKELY CARTEL ARMS SMUGGLER REMAINS FUGITIVE AFTER BEING RELEASED BY JUDGE. SOPHISTICATED IED FOUND AT CHURCH IN OREGON.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----   -International Events- Canada: A vehicle ramming attack was conducted at the Lapu Lapu Filipino Heritage festival in Vancouver on Saturday night. Authorities state that the attacker intentionally drove his vehicle into a large crowd of people gathered at the intersection of Frasier and E 41st Avenue, killing 11x people and wounding dozens more. Local authorities have identified the attacker as Kai-Ji Adam Lo, who was arrested at the scene. Local police stated that the attacker was very well known to police, and had been the result of many emergency responses involving mental health incidents. Europe: This morning, a large-scale electrical power outage was reported throughout Spain, before rapidly cascading to include Portugal, France, Belgium, and the Netherlands. A few hours after the outage began, French utilities started to come back online. Spain and Portugal appear to be hardest hit, with a total blackout affecting much of the two countries. Portugal's grid operator has not given a timeline for a return of power, and has indicated that the delay might be significant. Grid operators in Spain stated that it will take most of the day to restore power throughout the blackout zones, though as night has fallen much of the region remains without electricity. A state of emergency has been declared throughout Spain, and officials in the provinces of Andalusia, Extremadura, and Madrid (plus the city proper) have requested federal authorities declare the crisis a Civil Protection Level 3, so as to maintain order throughout the night in major cities as the outage persists. AC: This level of emergency declaration is usually only reserved for wartime as it involves a declaration of martial law, and a widespread deployment of military forces. Checkpoints and ID checks are also a part of this plan, along with the restriction of travel, curfews, etc. Ukraine: President Putin has announced that a general ceasefire will take place from May 8-10 along all fronts. AC: Neither American nor Ukrainian leadership has commented on the ceasefire announcement yet, nor have there been any indications as to if Ukraine will be participating in the 72-hour cessation of hostilities. Red Sea/HOA: An aviation mishap was reported onboard the USS HARRY S TRUMAN (CVN 75). During routine aviation operations, one F/A-18 aircraft was lost overboard while being towed by aircraft handlers. The tractor towing the aircraft was lost overboard as well. No casualties were reported as a result of this incident. AC: Warfare is dangerous business, and it would seem that this proverbial "business is getting out of control" for the TRUMAN. This deployment has been rough so far for the entire strike group, as military forces globally experience the follow-on effects of an increased optempo, stressed maintenance schedules, and even complacency. On this one deployment to the Red Sea, one of her escorts shot down one of her own aircraft in a friendly-fire incident (Dec, 2024), she collided with a merchant vessel resulting in damage to her fantail (Feb, 2025), and now an entire aircraft was lost overboard. This is important in the context that she is on her second Captain (the first skipper was fired after the collision) during this deployment...a deployment which was extended a few weeks ago amid rising tensions with the Iranians.  -HomeFront- California: Over the weekend, vandals set fire to a utility pole in Sacramento, causing internet connectivity loss throughout the eastern and central parts of the city for much of the day on Saturday. New Jersey: This afternoon a ground stop was issued for all aviation traffic departing Newark following a reported loss of radio capabilities at the tower. AC: Since this is the busiest air traffic control sector in the United States, this is a big deal. Details are sketchy at best, but pilots report a loss of radio communication with the tower at Newark for unknown reasons. Some unconfirmed reports suggest Newark tower lost radar at some point as well. Either way (and as serious as this incident is), this has happened before. Illinois: A woman was murdered on the Green Line in Chicago last Thursday, after a brief altercation. Witnesses state that Willie Holmes initially started an altercation with a stranger (identified as Emily Carlson) while transiting on an L train, prompting the victim's boyfriend to confront the assailant. Holmes then produced a knife and murdered Carlson. Wyoming: An alleged cartel weapons trafficker remains at large after being a no-show in court on Friday. Ricardo Paez-Quinones was originally arrested after being caught smuggling around 18,000 small arms rounds in Carbon County last month. Paez-Quinones, being an illegal immigrant that was previously deported twice, was indicted by a grand jury following his initial arrest. AC: Despite the original prosecutor arguing that the individual was very likely to be a flight risk due to his connections to organized crime, U.S. Chief Magistrate Judge Scott Klosterman released him from custody on a $20,000 bond. Because this bond was unsecured, he did not have to pay a dime up front for his release. He simply walked free to become a fugitive after being allowed to do so by the judge, who knew that most of the suspect's family lived in Mexico, and that he was a twice-deported illegal alien. Oregon: Details regarding the discovery of a suspicious device have been released by local authorities. Last week, a suspicious package was discovered by an employee of a local mechanic shop in La Grande. After authorities were alerted to the device, a local Explosive Ordnance Disposal (EOD) team confirmed that the device was an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) that was fashioned as a crude pipe bomb with ball bearings added for additional shrapnel. AC: This story did not gain much traction when it first came to light, however additional details (and photo evidence) has confirmed that this device was located on the sidewalk immediately adjacent to Calvary Chapel. This context indicates that this small-town news story is likely related to the general increase in risks to religious institutions around the nation. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: The blackout in Europe is very likely the largest power outage to strike the continent in recent memory, and the effects are very widespread. When power goes out in one neighborhood minor inconvenience is the result, but when a outage strikes on a continental scale, very serious impacts are observed. Portuguese grid officials have claimed that the outage was the result of "rare atmospheric phenomenon". This is comparatively common when severe solar weather causes electromagnetic variations in the Earth's ionosphere. However space weather for the past few days has been very mild, with no watches or warnings even being issued at all over the past few days. Power grid fluctuations occurring with this little solar activity are completely unheard of, making these space weather claims dubious at best. Due to the language barrier, it is possible that the references to "atmospheric" causes were not related to space weather, but rather actual weather. Hot weather can cause power lines to stretch and droop into other lines, the resulting shorting of which can cause exceptionally widespread outages if it occurs in the right place. This has been the cause of several very infamous power outages over the years (combined with mismanaged regulation of voltage, causing transmission lines to heat up and stretch even more). The next most likely theory that is circulating at the moment is that the outage was caused by multiple independent cyberattacks on the core communications functions of the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO-e). At the moment there's no evidence available to the public that can confirm this for the time being. It also must be noted that almost two weeks ago, Spanish grid operator Red Electrica reached a milestone regarding their renewable energy sector. On April 16, the grid operator claimed that the Spanish electrical grid ran fully on solar, wind, and hydro power for the first time in history. This highlights the recent substantial efforts to further allegedly "carbon-neutral" standards and goals...efforts which in the wake of last month's outage at Heathrow Airport are drawing scrutiny. Of course, not every power outage can be blamed on one single root cause; there are usually long chains of causation for events like this. However, the recent major changes throughout the continent, among all sectors of energy production, certainly will be under major scrutiny as Europe's energy crisis at large starts to impact the average citizen more directly than it has in the past. In Canada, local authorities claim that the attack in Vancouver was not terrorism, however eyewitness statements overwhelmingly confirm this was an intentional terrorist attack. Locals reported the assailant deliberately waited for the event to draw to a close before conducting the attack. He waited until the traffic barriers were being removed as the event was winding down, at which point he threated his vehicle through the barriers that were being removed, to intentionally target the crowd that still remained. After the attack, the assailant exited his vehicle and was confronted/detained by those at the event. While it would be wise to confirm the details of the investigation into this event, enough information has been conveyed by event-goers to fill in the gaps with regards to risk assessment. In this case, it seems as though another mass-casualty event has taken place that would have been preventable had complacency not been a major contributing factor. Reports vary on the status of anti-vehicle barricades for this event. Some state that there were no barricades at all, but rather standard traffic cones which were used for traffic control purposes, while others claim the limited barriers that were emplaced were not sufficient in either traffic control or in preventing the attack itself. Whatever the barrier situation was at the time of the incident, clearly it was not sufficient either in deterring or stopping a major terror attack. Instead of waiting for crowds to disperse fully, traffic barriers being removed before the event was fully over was also likely a factor in attack planning. Much like previous incidents, the proximity to risk is a huge factor many people do not realize. Many people will evacuate a building that's on fire...only to stand 4 feet from the door. Or even more commonly, sprint out of the building just to immediately stop in the doorway, blocking the egress of those behind them. In this case, the exact same mentality could have been a major contributing factor for the success of this attack. If the event ended at midnight, and the traffic barriers and counterterrorism efforts were ceased only 10-15 minutes later, this would have obviously not been adequate to stop the threats that remained as crowds dispersed throughout the area. As such, constant vigilance and situational awareness are desperately needed at all times, especially if local authorities and event-goers alike are largely complacent. Terrorists are patient. Terrorists do not shuffle their feet and moan about their shift being too long. Terrorists can wait a long time and are dedicated to their goals. Terrorists will wait for the precise moment that they have the best possible chance for success, knowing that authorities have to be successful in preventing attacks at all times...while the terrorist only has to be successful once. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

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//END REPORT//

This week's intel update is out 👍

//The Wire//2100Z April 24, 2025// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: INDIA AND PAKISTAN ON THE BRINK OF WAR. ARREST MADE IN CONJUNCTION WITH NEW JERSEY WILDFIRE.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----   -International Events- India/Pakistan: The situation has rapidly increased in seriousness following India's actions after the recent terror attack in Kashmir. Various diplomats in both nations have been declared persona-non-grata, and diplomatic talks between both belligerents have been progressively deteriorating for the past 24 hours. Both India and Pakistan have closed all border crossings and suspended all visas from each other's country. India has ordered the deportation of all Pakistanis from India, and Pakistan has ordered likewise with all Indians in Pakistan. Both nations have issued repatriation orders, urging their own citizens to return to their respective nations immediately. India has suspended the Indus Waters Treaty (1960), halting all water access into Pakistan via the closure of sluice gates at the various dams along rivers that flow into Pakistan. As this water is crucial for roughly 80% of all agricultural irrigation in Pakistan, Pakistani leadership has labeled the move as an act of war and has subsequently threatened to bomb these dams. In response to this rhetoric, India has deployed the INS Vikrant (one of her two aircraft carriers), which was observed maneuvering off the coast of Pakistan this morning. Various airspace closures have been reported between the two nations as well.  -HomeFront- New Jersey: This morning authorities announced the arrest of Joseph Kling on charges of aggravated arson, for his role in starting the fires that have swept through the state over the past few days. The arrest notice stated that he set a bonfire in a wooded area and departed before the fire was extinguished. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: The development involving India deploying her main flagship during this crisis is probably related to one of three possibilities. 1 - It's a standard deployment that isn't related to any current event, 2 - It is an attempt by India to bully Pakistan via a little power-projection on the high seas, or 3 - India is intending to actually carry out some sort of military operation against Pakistan. Under normal conditions, the latter option wouldn't be a realistic theory, however when it comes to the India/Pakistan conflict anything goes. This is why despite most of the civilized world not caring about what happens on the Indian subcontinent, this conflict has the potential to become rather serious. India and Pakistan have a very long history of conducting themselves exactly how they are doing so right now; tensions rising to the brink of war between these two nations has been quite common over the years. However, when two third-world nations have grievances that go back thousands of years, but both nations also happen to have nuclear weapons, the game takes on a slightly more concerning tone. Either way, the next few weeks will be a point of concern as these old rivals continue to escalate the situation. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

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//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z April 23, 2025// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: WILDFIRE CAUSES MASS EVACUATIONS IN NEW JERSEY. EARTHQUAKE STRIKES TURKEY. INDIA/PAKISTAN RELATIONS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----   -International Events- Turkey: An earthquake with an estimated magnitude of 6.2 struck just south of Istanbul (Constantinople) overnight. So far reports of damage have been limited; Turkey's Minister of the Interior stated that no major buildings had collapsed but damage had been reported. India: Following the recent terror attack in Kashmir, India has responded in several ways, most of which are not directly related to the specific attack, but rather are more diplomatic in nature. For one, India has halted the recent cross-border water deal with Pakistan due to the attack. India has also paused a special visa program with Pakistan that had allowed faster cross-border traffic for Pakistanis into the highly-controversial Kashmir region. Indian security patrols are also increasing throughout the area of the initial attack, and various high-level meetings with Indian defense officials have been observed since the attack took place.    -HomeFront- New Jersey: Overnight large scale evacuations were ordered throughout the Barnegat township as a wildfire spread rapidly through Greenwood Forest. The Jones Road Fire was roughly 8,500 acres in size by morning, and at only 10% containment. The New Jersey Forest Fire Service reported that approximately 1,320 structures were at risk for being overtaken by the fire, and roughly 3,000 people have been evacuated from the areas most at risk. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Throughout the past few days, various rhetoric has continued regarding the trade war between the USA and China. Nothing is solidified beyond mere rumor and casual comment at this point, however the situation remains delicate. Some media outlets historically critical of President Trump are claiming that he caved, and will reduce the tariffs on China following the economic turmoil since this whole affair began. Media outlets supportive of Trump imply that he hasn't "caved" and that the situation is still being negotiated. Considering that there's very little to go on that's solid, the truth is probably in between the two extremes. More generally, it is often very hard to engage in a trade war with nations that are governed by Communist institutions. This simple detail could be an unforeseen factor in negotiations; China's economy is not solely based around commerce...there is a military angle to most things that China does even if it doesn't seem like it at first. Nevertheless, some agreement will likely be reached at some point, despite the power-projection attempts by both sides. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

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//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2200Z April 22, 2025// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: TOURIST GROUP AMBUSHED IN KASHMIR, 24 DEAD. DHS SECRETARY VICTIM OF PICKPOCKET, DRAWING SECURITY CONCERNS.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----   -International Events- India: Overnight unknown insurgents ambushed a group of tourists in the resort town of Pahalgam in Kashmir. So far, the death toll stands at 24 fatalities and an unknown number of wounded as per Indian officials. PM Modi has stated that the incident was a terror attack. AC: The timing of this attack was very likely not random. Not only did this attack take place during American VP Vance's visit to India, but this is the most significant attack in recent memory. In the wider context of the very controversial Kashmir region, the indiscriminate targeting of unarmed civilians is outside the norm for the various separatist groups that have freedom of maneuver throughout the area. As India's government has increasingly flexed their muscle in Kashmir by having an increased security presence over the years, if these attacks continue this could indicate another intensification of conflict throughout the beleaguered region.    -HomeFront- Washington D.C. - Controversy has erupted following a minor incident involving DHS Secretary Kristi Noem, who's purse was stolen while having dinner in Washington on Sunday. The investigation into the theft is ongoing. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: While the attention Noem has received since beginning her role at DHS has been palpable, this situation is the latest in highlighting the long-standing problems within federal agencies. The Department of Homeland Security is responsible for managing the US Secret Service, which in turn is responsible for protecting high-ranking individuals who are critical to national security. A person who can get close enough to steal a purse can also do other things. As incredulous as that seems by itself, one must remember the assailant also succeeded in getting away without being noticed until afterward. It's one thing if someone snatched a purse and made it approximately 12 feet before being tackled to the ground...but in this case not one member of her security detail seemed to notice anything happened at all. This means that a malign actor was able to get within close proximity of their protectee, remove something from their possession, and egress from the area undetected. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

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//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z April 10, 2025// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: FLOODING CONCERNS REMAIN IN KENTUCKY. OIL SPILL CLEANUP CONTINUES IN NORTH DAKOTA. USA/CHINA TRADE SPAT ESCALATES.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -HomeFront- New York: This afternoon a private helicopter (tail number: N216MH) crashed in the Hudson River in the vicinity of the Holland Tunnel. As of this report, no survivors have been reported, though rescue operations are ongoing. North Dakota: Tuesday morning a rupture was reported at the Keystone pipeline near Fort Ransom. Roughly 3,500 barrels of oil were spilled in a farmer's field as a result of the pipeline rupture. Kentucky: Recovery efforts continue following the flooding events of the past week. Severe weather events swept through the region last week, causing widespread damage from the floods. Many areas are still inaccessible due to roads washing out, and debris generally causing challenges with transportation. Washington D.C. - Tariff shenanigans continue as the White House clarifies the math on the total tariffs on China. So far, the final tally as of this morning is that a 145% tariff on all imports from China is in effect. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: As the helicopter crash in New York is a developing situation, not much is confirmed. Eyewitnesses state that the aircraft broke up mid-flight, with no obvious signs of distress or mechanical failure before the incident. Analysis of the aircraft's transponder data does not indicate any abnormal flight pattern before the incident that may indicate what happened. Of note, misleading videos are already circulating on social media, being pushed by very big accounts. An older video of a similar helicopter showing erratic flight is being falsely claimed to be from this incident, when in reality that footage was from a few years ago. In today's age, misleading, old, or even outright fake video clips always circulate on social media in the minutes after a disaster. Despite this, most people on social media quickly forget the accounts that push fake information, thus continuing the circus the next time something happens. In North Dakota, no cause was reported for the Keystone pipeline incident. However, the impacts will continue to be felt as the pipeline remains shut down (almost three days after the incident) while repairs are underway. This pipeline transports on average 600,000 barrels of crude oil per day, so any downtime whatsoever will probably negatively impact the prices of petroleum products while repairs continue. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

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//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z April 8, 2025// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: TRADE TARIFFS ON CHINA TO BEGIN TOMORROW AFTER NO DEAL REACHED TODAY.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Afghanistan: Questionable reporting has emerged claiming that the United States has re-occupied Bagram Airbase. An article was published by Medium two days ago, which claimed that American C-17's landed at Bagram after being handed back control of the airbase from the Taliban. AC: So far, this story as presented appears to be a fabrication; no sources, including the ADS-B tracking services mentioned in the article confirmed any aircraft landing. The aircraft specifically mentioned in the reporting, a C-17 operating as callsign MOOSE59 (tail number: 02-1099) probably did fly through Afghan airspace on April 5th. However, it did NOT land in Afghanistan...it's destination was Tajikistan. -HomeFront- Washington D.C. - Questions remain regarding the details of trade tariffs with China. President Trump's trade tariffs may or may not already be in effect as of noon today, earlier than previously announced. The tariffs are also allegedly higher than previously stated, with some media outlets stating that since no agreement was reached at noon today, a 117% tariff with China will be implemented tomorrow. Otherwise, the economic turmoil of yesterday morning has largely leveled out, with most indexes ending up not as effected as first expected. This morning the US Supreme Court voted 5-4 to approve the White House's request to continue deportations of violent criminals under the Alien Enemies Act. AC: This particular action by the SCOTUS isn't necessarily a win for the White House, as the actual opinions provided by the SCOTUS confirm that all Justices think this law *is* subject to judicial review, but this review must be conducted in the original jurisdiction (which was in Texas). Either way, all interpretations of the law are up for debate, so this will certainly be argued in court over the next few years, and remain entangled in some form or fashion. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Just because something seems true, doesn't mean that it is....as rather poignantly confirmed yet again just yesterday. Satellite imagery from just a few days ago confirms nothing has moved at Bagram, and local Taliban officials have proudly stated that they control the airfield. However, this article scandal probably does tacitly imply something interesting...mostly that the United States without question has eyes and ears in the region. What was originally spun as a fake news story might actually have stumbled upon a grain of truth; This flight was probably related to some secret-squirrel tasking, even if the aircraft didn't land directly at Bagram. Despite rather exuberant denials of such, the CIA and other intelligence agencies almost certainly maintain a foothold in Afghanistan, to some degree. Normally, CIA operations personnel don't fly on standard USAF C-17's...they have their own not-so-secret fleet of clandestine logistics aircraft. However, considering the wider context, and even without any evidence whatsoever, a random Medium journalist with 86 followers can claim "the CIA is here"...and in almost all cases be correct. In this case, this is due to the most significant factor of all forms of warfare throughout the history of mankind...geography. Right about now, with relations with China deteriorating, not having control of Bagram Airbase is a serious strategic disadvantage to the United States. This airbase is one of the reasons the American occupation lasted as long as it did; one of the major unspoken strategic goals of maintaining a foothold in Afghanistan is that it's geography made it a fortress country right at China's backdoor. Now, with trouble brewing in the Far East, not having a foothold at Bagram is disadvantageous, and also why the information space is ripe for a deception campaign, and stories like this gain so much traction immediately...it makes total sense that the US government would do something like this at this point. However, in this case, the claims as they have been made are false. Nevertheless, with the entire global order experiencing a level of upheaval in many ways, careful attention would be wise to place on not just the places where new conflicts might emerge...but also the old sand where forgotten wars were fought long ago. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

S2 Underground GhostNotes

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//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z April 7, 2025// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: GLOBAL MARKET TURMOIL RESULTS FROM TARIFF SHAKEUP. FORCE BUILDUP IN MIDDLE EAST CONTINUES.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Global: On the economic front, hallmarks of a global market correction began to be observed this morning. Last night the Japanese stock market crashed, with circuit breakers being tripped for futures trading (Nikkei 225). Taiwan and South Korea did not do much better as circuit breakers were also tripped for their respective futures products as well as products linked to Taiwan's semiconductor production giant TSMC. Following the exceptionally chaotic market fluctuations this morning, President Trump announced on social media that the United States will increase the tariffs on China by an additional 50% if China does not remove their additional tit-for-tat tariff implementations. AC: As the United States has already implemented a 20% tariff on China, plus an additional 34% tariff, an additional 50% tariff on top of these previous taxes means China is looking at a potential 104% tariff being implemented in two days (if the situation doesn't change). Middle East: The Charles de Gaulle Carrier Strike Group (CSG) was observed transiting north through the Suez Canal this morning, leaving the two American carriers the only one's in the CENTCOM AOR. Minor repositioning was observed at Diego Garcia as of this morning, with 6x B2's still on site with their respective refueling aircraft. Over the weekend, Israeli media claimed that the elusive THAAD battery that was originally in South Korea has been transferred to Israel. AC: If this is true (and it likely is), this brings the total in Israel to two of these missile defense systems. -HomeFront- New York: Over the weekend a mass stabbing was reported at an apartment building in Brooklyn. Local authorities state that a man had a mental episode which resulted in him attempting to murder four young family members. 4x children were wounded in the attack, and the attacker was neutralized by police during their response. Texas: A local measles outbreak has gained national attention following the death of a second child from the disease. HHS Secretary RFK Jr. visited Gaines County yesterday, and announced the deployment of CDC personnel to the area. RFK Jr. also stated on social media that "The most effective way to prevent the spread of measles is the MMR vaccine". Washington D.C. - Over the weekend, FBI Director Kash Patel promoted the highly-controversial Steven Jensen to lead the Field Office in Washington D.C. Previously Jensen served as the chief of the Domestic Terrorism Operations Section within the Counterterrorism Division. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: While many may have forgotten, Steven Jensen is a highly controversial pick for this position as he was one of the masterminds within the FBI to investigate parents speaking at school board meetings as terrorists under the command of AG Merrick Garland in 2021. As he was the Chief of the Domestic Terrorism Operations Section (also in 2021), Jensen was also the lead FBI decision maker behind the J6 investigations, and enthusiastically carried out the targeting of J6 participants on that day, and for many months afterwards. In short, Jensen is the man who provided the legwork for the J6 investigation, and he is one of the main persons responsible for why Trump himself had to pardon many J6 participants. Now, Jensen has been promoted into a very prestigious position at the FBI, leading the Field Office in Washington. Due to the highly controversial nature of this pick, this promotion was not advertised with much fanfare. However, Patel passively confirmed the move himself by reposting an article on social media referencing the personnel change. On the information and economic fronts, much activity has resulted from this morning's economic uncertainty. Late last night, most financial entities were preparing for a bloodbath upon the opening of the American markets this morning. As such, it's very likely that various efforts were undertaken to manipulate the information space, to buy time for big investors to make their moves. For instance, a perfectly cut-paste "news story" was circulated widely on Twitter/X shortly after the markets opened. This story claimed that President Trump was considering a 90 day pause on his tariff implementation. The origin of this story appears to be a few mainstream media outlets, but due to the timing of posts being made on social media, it could have originated from a few different accounts nearly at the same time. This caused a brief pump in the markets (lasting only a few minutes) before it became clear that this story was fake. Though completely speculative at this time, this was probably an effort to pump the markets enough for the big fish to briefly squeeze last-minute profits before dumping during the large sell-off events of the day. In a grander sense, this somewhat minute detail that most people either didn't notice or didn't care about, highlights the nature of how "alternative" media impacts the world. Continuing the old adage of a lie traveling around the world before the truth puts on it's shoes, there are very real efforts by malign actors to manipulate the information space while also claiming to be free and independent media. Especially if a single post on social media, which has no attribution, sourcing or any sort of credibility whatsoever, can be whipped up into a frenzy that pumps the entire American stock market by about 8% for a few minutes...just long enough for someone to make billions. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

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//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z April 4, 2025// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: YEMENI HOUTHIS DOWN TWO AMERICAN DRONES, CONTRIBUTING TO CONTINUED HIGH TENSIONS. ECONOMIC INSTABILITY REMAINS FOLLOWING TARIFFS ANNOUNCEMENT.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- United Kingdom: A 16-year-old boy was murdered after being stabbed in the neck in Huddersfield. So far, multiple attackers have been arrested in conjunction with the murder, however authorities have not identified the assailants. Red Sea/HOA: The situation involving American targeting of the Houthis in Yemen has deteriorated following the shootdown of two American drones within the past few days. Two MQ-9 Reaper drones were shot down by the Houthis, one in Hudaydah, the other over Ma'rib. Middle East: This afternoon the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) center issued a maritime advisory warning of increased GPS jamming being detected in the Strait of Hormuz. AC: This is a classic tactic used by Iranian forces routinely, either for the hijacking of vessels, or for more wartime preparations. While it is possible that the jamming is the result of American warships using electronic countermeasures to defend against missiles, in this case this could be related to the recent uptick in Iranian forces stopping oil tankers allegedly engaging in the smuggling of petroleum products. Iranian authorities seized two vessels attempting to illegally export diesel fuel from Iran a few days ago for these reasons. However, considering that the overall security situation in the region remains tenuous, GPS jamming could be a sign of increasing defenses against a potential conflict. -HomeFront- Washington D.C. - Various economic fallout continues as all sides of the issue interpret the recent tariff announcements in the context of economic stability. Most financial markets have remained volatile as fast-moving economic developments have come to light. This morning President Trump urged the FED to cut rates, but as of this afternoon Chairman Powell seems to indicate he's not interested in such, leading to more uncertainty. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Generally speaking, there are multiple viewpoints on whether the recent economic changes in the US are good or bad. Some state that the tariffs (and subsequent economic shake-up with regards to American domestic production) are a necessary hardship that will be tough at first, but will get better as more domestic production returns to the United States. Others think that while this is a noble goal, this may not be possible in some industries as companies will simply keep production overseas, and pass the costs of tariffs on to consumers, since most major companies in the modern world are monopolies. Others still don't like taxes in any form whatsoever, which is an argument that often mistakenly conflates taxing a domestic population with taxing an overseas adversary. Some people say "fair is fair", and that taxing other nations the same as they tax us is long overdue. Others agree with this idea, but point out that in the international arena, returning to a concept of fairness won't rule out hardship since most American companies outsourced everything to the third world years ago, and it will take a lot of work (and be quite costly) to start building things in America again. Even more people will point out the national security concerns of having the overwhelming majority of critical wartime supplies (such as almost all medications) being made overseas with cheap labor...an American-made Tylenol pill costing a few dollars per pill may be preferable to not having that pill at all in the event of a war. Which perspective is correct is already being hotly debated, and the situation isn't necessarily possible to categorize as "good" or "bad". However, virtually no one is stating that economic tribulation won't be the result; the general consensus is that economic trouble will happen no matter what. The debate lies with whether or not the tariffs will result in long term hardship, or short term hardship....hard times will probably be the result in any case. In the United Kingdom, the murder in Huddersfield has been subject to more gaslighting and manipulation in the media than usual, possibly due to the gruesome nature of the attack. For instance, the BBC reported the incident in very passive language, merely stating that "a man was found with a stab wound". Most media groups have also completely ignored the attacker, or in this case, the multiple people who have been arrested in conjunction with this murder. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

S2 Underground GhostNotes

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//END REPORT//

This week's intel update is out!

//The Wire//2300Z March 28, 2025// //PRIORITY// //BLUF: MAJOR EARTHQUAKES STRIKE BURMA AND THAILAND, THOUSANDS OF CASUALTIES ESTIMATED. DIPLOMATIC ACTIONS CONTINUE IN UKRAINE.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Southeast Asia: A very large earthquake (and many aftershocks) struck the region this morning, primarily within the nations of Myanmar (Burma) and Thailand. The epicenter of the Burmese earthquake was located almost exactly under the city of Mandalay, Burma's second largest city. Early estimates indicate the earthquake's magnitude was 7.7, larger than usual for the region. In Thailand, several aftershocks were felt and have caused damage through much of the northwest. A state of emergency remains in effect throughout most of Burma, and parts of Thailand that have been hardest hit. Many skyscrapers and high-rise buildings have collapsed in Bangkok, about 600 miles from the epicenter. AC: This earthquake is a big deal, with most authorities estimating thousands, if not tens of thousands of casualties spread throughout the region. Right now, numbers are impossible to verify as most communications networks throughout Burma and Thailand (which barely functioned before the earthquake) are simply overwhelmed. Additionally, since Burma has been living under a state of military coup for several years, communications blackouts have been the norm to prevent access to the internet by locals. As such these censorship efforts probably will have a negative impact on determining the scale of the crisis in Burma. Eastern Europe: The potential for peace in Ukraine remains on the table as diplomatic efforts remain constant. Overnight, President Putin gave a very frank and direct talk regarding his concerns for the war coming to a close. One of his chief concerns is the legitimacy of peace; in short, Putin stated that he's not sure if a peace agreement with Zelenskyy would be legally binding, because he is not the elected leader of Ukraine (referencing the fact that elections have been suspended in Ukraine, and Zelenskyy's term of office expired some time ago). -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Though many may scoff at listening to anything Putin says, his remarks last night provide some much needed insight into his perspective during negotiations. For instance, from Putin's perspective, regime change is a non-starter. From where Putin sits, Zelenskyy must go even if that means ousting him and creating an interim transitional government while elections take place. Considering his strangely direct remarks, he probably would be amenable to a ceasefire while Ukrainian elections take place, but that's sheer speculation at best. Rightly or wrongly, and like it or not, Zelenskyy remaining in office is one of the biggest barriers to peace and Russia has made it clear that they will continue fighting as long as he is in power. Zelenskyy himself did make it illegal for any ceasefire or peace talks to even happen with Putin, that is an undeniable fact that is complicating things quite a bit. Of course, on the other side of the issue, Russia wants to come out of this war in the best position possible, and a transitional government where everyone is vying for power would be politically advantageous to Russia. Fundamentally, opinions will vary on what is happening as long as those interpreting the diplomatic efforts adopt certain opinions. For instance, if a person thinks that Putin is hellbent on taking the entire continent of Europe, one analytical perspective will be adopted. If a person thinks that Putin just wants to make a minor land grab and isn't interested in land outside of Ukraine, another analytical perspective will be used. This is one of the major reasons for analytical discrepancy throughout the conflict, and is why the terms of a peace agreement might be confusing to many people who had believed one set of beliefs about the war for so long that at war's end, the reality of the situation might be hard to understand. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

S2 Underground GhostNotes

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//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z March 27, 2025// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: VEHICLE RAMMING IN BERLIN, MASS STABBING IN AMSTERDAM. WILDFIRE SEASON RISKS INCREASED DUE TO HELENE DAMAGE.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Germany: Overnight a vehicle ramming attack was conducted in the Gesundbrunnen district of Berlin, resulting in multiple casualties. So far 6x people were wounded in the attack, and 1x fatality was reported. AC: At the moment, the circumstances of this attack are unclear. Some reporting suggests the ramming attack was intentional, other reports state that it was the result of a driver attempting to flee a police checkpoint because he was unlicensed, which resulted in the crash into a crowd of pedestrians. In either case, deliberate action was undertaken by the driver. Netherlands: This morning a mass stabbing was reported in Amsterdam. 5x victims were stabbed by an assailant in Dam Square, with the attacker being detained at the scene. So far no details on the attacker have been released by authorities. -HomeFront- Washington D.C. - Following the Signal group chat scandal, overnight new developments have come to light. Using the data from the group chat as a jumping off point, various old email accounts, friends lists on various accounts, and random other data points have been linked to several of government officials. The media group that originated this digital snooping also claims that passwords were also found on various websites, likely resulting from various data breaches over the years. North Carolina: Wildfire season is underway, bringing more risks than normal in some areas. For instance, in western North Carolina, the downed trees from Hurricane Helene have resulted in challenges managing wildfires. Similar situations and concerns have been reported in Tennessee and South Carolina. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Even though federal resources have arrived to work cleanup operations in western North Carolina (all of which is greatly appreciated by locals), much of it has been unfortunately too little, too late. All locals know that state leadership has been intentionally dragging feet on their Helene response to the point of being criminally negligent, even though local responders have done and continue to do great work at the local level. Regarding the fire season, responders are doing the best they can but many fires have been burning for almost a week and are still at zero-percent containment. As one disaster often leads to another, the twist of the knife in this case turns out to be an increased wildfire risk. Downed trees provide fuel, change wind patterns, and provide barriers to vehicle traffic....both for firefighting resources and for those trying to evacuate. In short, firefighting will be a lot harder this year in the areas impacted by Hurricane Helene, so heightened situational awareness would be a great idea this fire season. If an evacuation is called for, evacuating earlier than you might think will be helpful, especially in areas that firefighting resources might have a hard time accessing. Just because a small passenger vehicle will squeeze through hurricane damaged roads doesn't mean that a firefighting rig can too. Regarding the new developments in Washington, it would seem that various journalists simply conducted a bunch of free online background checks on various people in the original group chat, and since data privacy is a nightmare these days, a lot of links could be made using very little initial data. This isn't really a groundbreaking or scandalous development, it's more akin to just bad data protection practices. We all have an old email address that we don't use anymore, or an account at a random website that we needed once and never used again, or the infamous data sucked up every single moment of an online existence. It turns out that government officials are people too, and if people are looking, a digital trail of breadcrumbs can easily be found. In the age of data privacy being very hard to achieve, the various digital breadcrumbs left by those in government is a point of targeting by malign actors. Of course, this problem has existed for a long time and is irrespective of political party. As such a bit of survivability bias is probably in play here...anyone other than Trump's administration gets a free pass on their lax data security, but Trump's team gets examined with a fine-toothed comb. Now that journalists have found a profitable way to target various Trump officials, they will probably continue to dogpile on issues that are really inherent to government at large (and thus not really specific to something Trump or his people have done). Nevertheless, this does highlight some inefficiencies in the day-to-day operations surrounding various government officials. For example, it has been known for many years that almost all military generals and admirals one-star and above, have a personal assistant solely dedicated to finding negative stories about that general, and shaping the general's image online (known as the Army Protective Services Battalion (APSB)). If a journalist can hop on a "free background check" website and find this data, one might have thought that the NSA would have completed a Personally Identifiable Information (PII) vulnerability assessment for senior government officials. An official getting blackmailed because of an embarrassing email account that they created when they were 12 years old is generally counter productive to the management of a nationstate. Consequently, as this scandal drags on, this might be a point of improvement in the long run. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

S2 Underground GhostNotes

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//END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z March 25, 2025// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: DANISH PM VOICES CONCERNS REGARDING AMERICAN ASPIRATIONS FOR GREENLAND. PRIVATE GROUP CHAT USED BY SENIOR WHITE HOUSE STAFF ALLEGEDLY LEAKED TO JOURNALIST.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Arctic Circle: Following yesterday's complaint from Greenland's Prime Minister, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen also voiced objection to the increasingly frequent visits to Greenland by American diplomats. AC: During her remarks, PM Frederiksen also cited the 1951 treaty which gave the United States freedom of maneuver throughout Greenland and allowed the construction of military bases as the United States sees fit. -HomeFront- Washington D.C. - A minor scandal emerged yesterday following a journalist gaining access to a group chat used by national leadership. The Atlantic ran a story yesterday that their Editor-in-Chief Jeff Goldberg had accidentally been added to a group chat on the Signal app, which allegedly contained VP Vance, SECDEF Hegseth, and other high-ranking officials in the White House. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: So far, the claims made in the Atlantic's article (which is locked behind a paywall) are that the group chat involved the posting of classified information. The Atlantic did not include any classified language in their article; all that was posted were private messages that are diplomatically dominating, but otherwise harmless with regards to any sort of classified ideas. The White House response so far has been dismissive and unconcerned. Most of the response has been to indirectly confirm beyond reasonable doubt that the chat is genuine. All things considered, there are four main theories regarding this scandal, which are as follows: 1- That this scandal was indeed a real and unintended breach of security, and that government officials really did do all of the damning things in the Atlantic report (such as sharing classified information on Signal). 2- That the group chat wasn't real, and was instead an intentional deception operation set purely with the goal of identifying security leaks. 3- That this was an intentional leak disguised as an accident, but intended to send a very frank and unpolished message to European leaders regarding the situation in Yemen, along with America's general attitude towards Europe. 4- That this was a legitimate security breach that was unintentional, but nobody in the chat actually posted classified information or anything that they wouldn't say in person. At the moment, theory #4 seems to be the most likely possibility, considering that nothing was said in the screenshots posted by the Atlantic, that the originator wouldn't also say directly to the public. Theory #2 also bears quite a bit of weight, considering the sheer statistical odds of the Editor of the Atlantic being added to a group chat involving the tightest inner circle in the White House. At face value, the leader of one of the most infamous "media" groups in existence, the Atlantic, being "accidentally" added to an ultra-secret group chat of the highest ranking individuals possible, is preposterous. In short, if the White House wanted to engage in an ambiguity-decreasing deception campaign, adding a journalist "by accident" to a group chat would be the way to do it. This is quite literally a textbook example of the Haversack Ruse, one of the oldest deception actions in the history of warfare. National Security Advisor Mike Waltz also being the alleged initiator of this error is ironic to the point of adding a lot of credence to the "intentional psyop" theory. Normally, when government officials have been caught using non-approved communications means, they have used pseudonyms...not their real name and profile pictures. Indeed, Goldberg himself probably couldn't believe his own luck after being added to this group chat, considering that in his own article he waited a couple of weeks before writing yesterday's paywall article on this escapade. He was probably waiting to see if anything particularly juicy was said, and when nothing was, he decided to run the story with what he had to squeeze some sort of revenue out of the incident for the Atlantic. Conversely, if this was an intentional attempt at a deception campaign, Goldberg not immediately jumping on this story probably wasn't expected...any deception planner would have wanted Goldberg to immediately pounce on the communications that he had seen pertaining to Yemen, and immediately publish the leak. When he didn't, that was probably a bit of a missed opportunity, as if this was a deception campaign, it was aimed at exactly one target...the Iranians. These types of leaks are usually conducted to convey important warnings and policy decisions, and to convey that political leadership is serious,. Considering the wider context of the tensions in the Middle East, if this was a deception event or an attempt to send a message, it was executed with nearly perfect timing, impact, and scope. This is why the "intentional psyop" theory carries so much weight...if it wasn't a psyop, it sure bears all of the hallmarks of such. However, the possibility does remain for things to be just as simple as they seem, within reason. Remember, it's a new generation of military and political leadership...there's absolutely zero chance that Pete Hegseth and JD Vance would communicate in this group chat without assuming that their messages would be screenshot by some person in the chat. Even if it was just a low level staffer who was minding a politicians phone for them when they went into various secured spaces around Washington. These two in particular were raised in the era of the internet, and it's exceptionally unlikely that they would use their real names in a group chat and expect any sort of privacy, thus they probably knew the chat would get leaked at some point. If this were the early 2000's and involving a secret email server in someone's basement, it would be believable (and a lot more damning). But as it stands it's quite likely that even though this breach may have been unintentional, it's possible that nothing was said that was illegal. This theory is most strongly evidenced by the White House stating that all of the messages in that group chat were unclassified. If this is the case, nothing is stopping the Atlantic from publishing the entire chat history. If the Atlantic does not do this, it would probably be safe to assume that what would ordinarily be a journalistic jackpot (getting added to a group chat with the VP and SECDEF), actually turned out to be completely underwhelming. Considering the absolute security nightmare that resulted from low-level staffers in the previous administration leaking virtually everything they got their hands on, this current admin's White House is a much tighter ship by comparison. More broadly, when examining the potential for deception operations, a simple analysis of the result may provide some benefit. For instance, what has been the result of this so-called "breach"? So far, nothing was said that would result in embarrassment for anyone involved, in fact these allegedly secret communications indicate quite the contrary. European leaders also have the message loud and clear that the Americans are indeed tired of their shenanigans, and that this posturing is not a bluff. Similar story in Yemen, both the Houthis and the Iranians now know without question the US is bucking for another war, and it might just be them. The "journalist" involved has somehow turned what could have been the Watergate scandal of a millennia into largely a bit of positive PR for the Trump administration. As such, whether it was an intentional leak, or if it was an unintentional leak that was assessed to be inevitable at some point, Jeff Goldberg fulfilled the role of useful idiot quite nicely. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

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//END REPORT//

This week's intel update is out 👍

//The Wire//2300Z March 21, 2025// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: MAJOR FIRE SHUTS DOWN HEATHROW AIRPORT, ALL AIRCRAFT DIVERTED FOR SOME TIME. UKRAINE AID FLIGHTS CONTINUE.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- United Kingdom: This morning a fire broke out at an electrical substation providing power to Heathrow Airport, prompting mass cancelations of all flights. The airport's backup generators were also affected by the fire, leading to a total electrical outage at the airport. All aircraft at the airport were grounded during the crisis, and all incoming aircraft were diverted to other airports or returned to their point of origin. AC: So far, no cause of the substation fire has been released, however British media is reporting that counterterrorism police are leading the investigation into the incident. Ukraine: American military and financial aid to Ukraine has continued, with multiple shipments of arms arriving over the past few days. Several logistics flights have been noted by aircraft watchers since the resumption of aid was announced by the White House two weeks ago. Zelenskyy himself confirmed that a fresh shipment of F-16 fighter aircraft had arrived on Wednesday, however he did not specific their point of origin. -HomeFront- Washington D.C. - Executive actions continue as before. President Trump has expressed interest in the United States joining the British Commonwealth of Nations, which has resulted in many questions regarding what this means. President Trump also signed an Executive Order closing the Department of Education, and returning educational authority to the States. AC: This order is not an outright closure, but phrased in a manner that effectively removes the Department of Education from having any power or responsibilities. As the removal of a cabinet position is a large undertaking, time will tell how this order is put into place. Texas: One Amazon freight transport was looted by locals after suffering a mechanical breakdown on the interstate in Dallas yesterday. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: The looting of various logistical means of transportation is by no means a new development, but certainly something to be aware of due to warmer weather increasing the potential for the arrival of looting season. This will probably be a factor that plays into the already complicated (and increasingly expensive) world of logistics. From trade tariffs to missiles in the Red Sea, the costs of moving cargo around the world have become much more volatile over the past year, with wide swings in the costs of moving freight being observed on the Freightos Baltic Index over the past few months especially. Volatility has been a common theme among all markets since the US Presidential election, however now that the last-mile of logistics is becoming increasingly more susceptible to looting, this is yet another factor that will drive up the costs for consumers. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

S2 Underground GhostNotes

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//END REPORT//