//The Wire//2300Z June 2, 2025//
//PRIORITY//
//BLUF: MAJOR ESCALATION IN RUSSIA AS UKRAINE STRIKES RUSSIA'S STRATEGIC BOMBER FORCE. MOLOTOV ATTACK OCCURS IN COLORADO.//
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-International Events-
Russia: At approximately 11:00pm Moscow time Sunday evening, Ukraine conducted a large-scale drone attack on military bases throughout Russia. Approximately 5-8 commercial cargo vehicles parked near critical military bases throughout the nation. Once parked, the drivers of these vehicles opened secret hatches cut into the tops of the cargo containers, from which dozens of Ukrainian drones were deployed in rapid succession. Within moments, these drones struck targets at several Russian military installations, ranging from airfields to supply depots.
As of right now, four Russian airbases have been confirmed to be struck during the attacks: Ivanovo, Dyagilevo, Belaya, and Olenya Air Bases were all struck overnight.
Various targets at Severomorsk and Severodvinsk Naval Bases appear to also have been struck, however this is unconfirmed at this time. Voskresensk Air Base is also claimed by some sources to have been struck during this attack, but this is also unconfirmed.
All total, the initial assessment of battle damage indicates a total loss of 3x Tu-95 BEAR H bombers, with 5x more being damaged. Ukrainka Air Base was also targeted by Ukrainian drones, however this attack failed due to the defenses at this location.
Ukraine has claimed credit for the attack, and has openly stated that the United States was made aware of the attack before it took place. The United States has denied these claims.
-HomeFront-
Colorado: Yesterday afternoon an arson attack took place in Boulder. Local authorities state that an assailant attacked a pro-Israel protest/demonstration in the vicinity of the historic Boulder County Courthouse. The attacker approached the protesters, using improvised incendiary devices to inflict burns on approximately 5x people attending the small demonstration. Concerning casualties, 2x victims were burned severely, and a several others suffered minor burns. The attacker has been identified as Mohammed Soliman, and authorities have claimed he is an illegal immigrant (specifically, a visa overstay) from Egypt.
AC: Reports vary on the method of the attack; some sources claim the assailant used some sort of improvised flamethrower device, others state that he used Molotov cocktails in his attack. Either way, video evidence of the attack confirms the assailant was holding two Molotovs in his hands after the attack was conducted. Additionally, Soliman's statements during the fray also indicate he conducted the attack in support of the Palestinian movement. Considering the recent shift in federal agencies' priorities concerning this issue, the fallout of this incident is probably going to be a very big deal in many different ways.
Oregon: Yesterday afternoon a mass stabbing attack was reported at the Union Gospel Mission in Salem. 11x people were wounded in the attack, and the assailant was detained at the scene.
AC: Very few details have come to light regarding this incident, and the assailant has not been identified yet. However, this facility is a homeless shelter, so at the moment the most likely theory is that the attack is the result of a mental health incident.
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Analyst Comments: From time to time, a new aspect of modern war comes to light that changes the dynamic of the modern battlespace in ways that most of us cannot possibly fathom. This happened over the weekend in Russia. While the drone attack on Russian airfields was not a new tactic by any means, it is expressly for this reason that this attack was special: most nations around the world have been waiting for someone to try this attack vector, and now it's actually happened.
While the supporters of Ukraine may rejoice at this development, this is the first time that a nuclear superpower has had this much damage occur to their First Strike capability within their own homeland, which is mixed-news at best. It is truly remarkable and impressive that Ukraine was able to pull this off with much success; this attack will be written about in the history books, without question. Ukraine (and the American advisors who probably helped, at least passively) are certainly worthy of all of the praise for this great military *tactical* victory. A quick look at a map will show how impressive this attack was, and how it has changed the battlespace. The farthest-struck target was an airbase almost 3,000 miles from Ukraine's borders. Of course, the drones themselves were launched only a short distance from their target, but overall this attack proves that nowhere is safe. Nowhere in Russia...nowhere, anywhere.
As such, one might surmise that this may be a pyrrhic victory at best...if Russia levels Kiev with a few IRBMs, the grand strategy of this attack (and retroactively the Kursk Offensive as well) may be called into question. In short, it may not have been worth it. Two weeks ago, Ukraine was looking at the chance for peace at the cost of losing terrain. An unfortunate situation to be in, to be sure. It does not make it morally right, but Russia is indeed a superpower...and Ukraine is not. Two weeks ago, the loss of two or three districts was on the menu. Now, all of them are. And what is more, if Russia even slightly suspects that the United States had a hand in approving this strike, very serious things may happen very soon. Remember, morality and fairness are not often reflected in modern war. Ukraine being 100% within their right to defend their homeland isn't likely to make anyone feel any better if we start seeing asymmetric warfare being waged by a nationstate actor in the American homeland. Though many will argue over what this attack means, it's worth considering the cold hard fact that there is a limit to how much the United States can assist and support her allies without becoming a target herself.
It is possible that we passed this point last night.
If the United States was indeed informed of the attack beforehand (as Ukrainian sources claim), this means that Russia will likely point the finger at the United States even more than they already have. Many will be quick to draw a link between the recent statements by President Donald Trump, and this major military downfall for Russia...Trump said "bad things" would happen, and indeed they have. Russia will also be quick to reflect on the timing of all of this. This attack was not planned overnight. Russia is not likely to dismiss the fact that at the exact same time that President Trump was berating Putin for escalating the war, Ukraine (and undoubtedly the United States) was planning this attack and the spies and operatives who conducted this attack were already inside Russia. Chastising a nation for being a warmonger, when you at the same moment have snuck clandestine operatives into that nation to carry out an attack, does not bode well for diplomacy. Peace is not only off of the table, but sharp escalations are also very likely imminent as this business gets out of hand.
Again, the perspective of how serious this situation has become is hard to explain without a clear analogy. Imagine, for a moment, that a Mexican Cartel were to launch a drone attack here in the United States, flying kamizake drones into the wings of the B-52's sitting on the unprotected tarmac at Barksdale Air Force Base. And to continue the analogy, imagine if that Cartel told us that China knew about the attack beforehand, right around the exact same time that China was accusing *us* of escalating the situation. The United States would be at war with China by the end of the day, if that situation were to occur here at home.
Though this is a fictional "what if" scenario, this has been a very significant threat to the domestic American homeland for some time, and that can of worms may have just been opened by America's ally in Europe. Here in the United States, this is a particular worry. In government (especially in the world of defense strategy), sometimes a vulnerability is found that is so exceptionally severe that there's nothing that can be done about it, so it's easier to ignore the issue altogether, or provide some feeble attempt to defend against it. It's rare, but this does occasionally happen.
Defense analysts have been thinking about this problem set for many years, and right now there isn't any good solution. One of the most concerning attack methods has been the scenario of drone swarm attacks conducted from secret locations inside one's own homeland. Many Americans think that there is some sort of magical air defense system to prevent this kind of attack, but this simply does not exist yet. The United States already has a hard time defending against ICBMs, as evidenced by the comparatively (and legendary) low success rate of interceptors. But for small drones launched within a few miles of their projected impact site, there quite literally is no defense that is feasible at scale right now. SHORAD batteries (or Short Range Air Defense batteries) don't defend against smaller drones, and the United States doesn't have enough of these types of defenses to cover every military base anyway, much less civilian centers. Point defense via jammers is hopeful at best, and largely negated now that fiber-optically controlled drones are becoming the industry standard. And America's "Golden Dome" system is still on the drawing board, and thus likely to be far too little, far too late, in the event that it's needed. And now that Ukraine has seen fit to confirm one of the defense industry's long held fears, the potential for this exact scenario to happen in the United States is now a legitimate concern. This is no longer a theory, it's been operationally proven to be a viable attack method.
Bottom line: If this same style of attack were to be used by malign actors (supported by a foreign nation) in the United States, there's nothing we could do about it. The bulk of the aircraft in the U.S. Air Force could be neutralized before they even got off the ground and nobody would know what happened until it's all over. And all of this could theoretically be done by a foreign nationstate that has the same GDP as Nebraska.
This highlights an unfortunate yet contentious problem with the entire Ukraine War. Any nationstate, when so invaded by the ground force of another nation, certainly has the right to defend their homeland. This is one of the defining characteristics of a nationstate. However, when that war starts to affect things outside the local sphere, tougher questions start being asked. If thermite grenades start being dropped on the wings of F-35's at JB Langley-Eustis (as this specific base has quietly made preparations to defend against this exact threat) the idea of the whole war becomes a bit more complicated.
In short, it's easy to have thoughts on a war that is not in one's homeland. And it's easy support someone defending their homeland on the far side of the world. But it's also easy to forget that in doing so, one may bring a war from someone else's homeland...to their own. These are the careful considerations not made by those cheering on either side in this war; this conflict has always had the potential to spread beyond the borders of Ukraine, and is now especially likely to do so now that a nationstate is engaging in asymmetric warfare tactics on a national level.
Analyst: S2A1
Research:
S2 Underground GhostNotes
GhostNotes - S2 Underground GhostNotes - Obsidian Publish
Hello everyone, welcome to GhostNotes, a project to convert a lot of the S2 Underground
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