Snacking on some cashus, these are not mint flavour 
hazzvaan
hazzvaan@nostrcheck.me
npub1tg5g...mu5l
Bitcoiner, data scientist & freedom-go-up tech enthusiast
My RasPi4 node is running out of disk space I think it might be time to upgrade the other hardware as well besides just the storage. Currently I have these options on the table: Umbrel Home or Asus NUC with either Start9, Umbrel OS, or a Linux (a Debian based probably) server.
Custom HW: more computational power for the same price but some questionmarks regarding compability
Umbrel Home: plug-n-play, marketplace has loads of software and not limited to just Bitcoin (home automation etc)
Start9: seems to have less apps in their marketplace (missing e.g. public pool)
Linux server: most flexibility and control but probably quite a hazzle keeping everything working and interoperable
Thoughts, recommendations, pros, cons, pitfalls to avoid? #asknostr #bitcoin
Someone should write a book "The Bitcoin relay policy war", the prequel about blocksize war was fascinating.
Step 3. Roll out ChatControl
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Step 1. Restrict side loading of apps to KYCd devs in the name of safety (https://developer.android.com/developer-verification)
Step 2. Ban all devs who work on privacy/freefom tech
In the early days Bitcoin had massive growth rates. In absolute terms (price per BTC) the growth was miniscule but is increasing. At the moment the expected (power law) growth rate is ~34% per year which means $100 per day increase in the (expected) value. Despite the slowing growth rate, BTC will beat any traditional investments in the coming decades by a wide marging. We're still very early.
During a boring sideways market as we're now experiencing, it's easy to get frustrated and forget about the big picture. When in doubt, zoom out! And that's exactly what we're going to do today.
Many of you know Power Law model for predicting Bitcoin's medium/long term price trajectory. Based on the model, Bitcoin could hit $1M per coin in approximately 8 years. But how much will that $1M buy in 2033? Let's explore.
Historically, inflation was defined as an increase in money supply, i.e. money printing. The current convention among mainstream economists is to use a price index such as a consumer price index (CPI). Long term average year-to-year CPI in the US has been around 3.9 % since 1970 (or 3.2 % since 1913) while the money supply has increased 6.8 % yearly in that same time frame. The reason for the difference is the deflationary nature of human ingenuity and technological progress. Based on those numbers, things would have gotten approximately 3 % cheaper each year had the money been noninflationary.
So in 8 years, when the fair price of BTC hits $1M according to the model, CPI is projected to be 36 % higher than today if the trend continues. CPI varies a lot from year to year and that is just the expected rise in prices (ignoring all the flaws in that metric which is a whole other discussion) in that time frame. A big print by the central banks would obviously push the number higher in the short term but on the other hand technological progress, such as advances in AI, will push the number down. Anyway, assuming the long term average, 1 BTC in ~8 years should have a price tag of $1M and it will buy what $640k does today. ~5.8x value increase in 8 years or almost 25 % yearly inflation adjusted. For comparison, the S&P500 index historical CPI adjusted growth has been 3.9 % since 1970.
Hard to beat hodling at this early stage of Bitcoin adoption. Have a powerful weekend and hodl strong!
Historically, inflation was defined as an increase in money supply, i.e. money printing. The current convention among mainstream economists is to use a price index such as a consumer price index (CPI). Long term average year-to-year CPI in the US has been around 3.9 % since 1970 (or 3.2 % since 1913) while the money supply has increased 6.8 % yearly in that same time frame. The reason for the difference is the deflationary nature of human ingenuity and technological progress. Based on those numbers, things would have gotten approximately 3 % cheaper each year had the money been noninflationary.
So in 8 years, when the fair price of BTC hits $1M according to the model, CPI is projected to be 36 % higher than today if the trend continues. CPI varies a lot from year to year and that is just the expected rise in prices (ignoring all the flaws in that metric which is a whole other discussion) in that time frame. A big print by the central banks would obviously push the number higher in the short term but on the other hand technological progress, such as advances in AI, will push the number down. Anyway, assuming the long term average, 1 BTC in ~8 years should have a price tag of $1M and it will buy what $640k does today. ~5.8x value increase in 8 years or almost 25 % yearly inflation adjusted. For comparison, the S&P500 index historical CPI adjusted growth has been 3.9 % since 1970.
Hard to beat hodling at this early stage of Bitcoin adoption. Have a powerful weekend and hodl strong!
Proof-of-Gardening 
GM. I love the smell of a bank run in the morning.
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Logged out of @primal (v.2.3.16) on GrapheneOS and can't log back in with eiher Amber or nsec "Something went wrong. Please try again later". Tried GOS's exploit protection compability mode and reinstalling Primal with no luck. Any tips (other than change client)? #asknostr