curt finch

The repo market attempts to be trustless; kind of like Bitcoin I'm a bank that is not meeting my reserves at the end of the day so I need to borrow cash from another bank and they don't have to trust me if I give them t-bills as collateral That agreement to Lend based on t-bills is called a repurchase agreement, a 'repo'. It's called a repurchase agreement because I'm intending to buy those t-bills back the next day at a slightly higher price. The only thing you have to trust is the t-bills But you don't really have to trust the other bank So with the assumption that t-bills are infinitely trustworthy, then you can do a trustless transaction to borrow or lend money There's trillions of dollars in repo every single day traded back and forth between Banks It is the biggest most liquid market for anything in the world ever in history It is this big precisely because it is trustless And they're basing it on top of t-bills which are assumed to be 100% trustworthy As bitcoiners we all know that that's not quite true Someday instead of t-bills this multi trillion dollar market will be somehow based on something that is a derivative of Bitcoin or maybe just Bitcoin itself Someday Maybe three or four decades away We are still early

Kapow

Check is my favorite anything ever... Based on recent posts and analyses from CheckOnChain (led by analyst James Check, aka @_Checkmatey_ ), here's a breakdown of his views on recent Bitcoin market dynamics.Who Is Buying and Selling BTC LatelyCheckOnChain's analysis indicates that sellers have been dominated by existing Bitcoin holders, who continue to provide heavy sell-side pressure and act as the primary source of market resistance. This includes:Long-term holders (HODLers) who acquired BTC below $10k, accounting for about 10% of the supply change since November 2024. Buyers from the previous cycle (below $55k), making up 38%. 2024 "chop traders" (acquired between $55k and $73k), representing 62%—these are seen as a mix of traders and TradFi inflows. Overall, HODLers contribute about one-third of the selling, while traders and TradFi money account for two-thirds. @_Checkmatey_ Retail investors have been net sellers since 2023. @_Checkmatey_ Short-term holders (STHs) have recently flipped between profit-taking and loss-taking modes, often selling near their buy-in prices during dips, which signals weaker hands exiting. Existing holders in general (including older cohorts from 3+ years ago) are consistently selling for profit, with daily volumes that dwarf individual large buys (e.g., one entity sold 80k BTC in a single event). On the buying side, specifics are less detailed, but CheckOnChain emphasizes that demand has been absorbing enormous sell-side volumes without collapsing the price, which he views as a bullish signal. TradFi vehicles like ETFs (e.g., BlackRock's IBIT) and treasury-holding companies (e.g., MicroStrategy) are described as "tiny" compared to overall sell-side flows, representing only a small fraction of the market's absorption capacity. @_Checkmatey_ Stablecoins are highlighted as a form of liquid "dry powder" for buying, with their growth enabling easier inflows into BTC. newsletter.checkonchain.com Options markets (e.g., on IBIT) are also enabling institutional hedging and capital allocation, indirectly supporting buying by providing risk management tools. newsletter.checkonchain.com How Much Dry Powder Is Left to Sell"Dry powder left to sell" in this context appears to refer to remaining sell pressure, such as unrealized profits, underwater supply, or dense cost-basis clusters that could trigger more selling. CheckOnChain notes that sell-side remains "heavy" overall, with no signs of it becoming irrelevant anytime soon. @_Checkmatey_ Key metrics include:Bitcoin is currently trading in a dense value area where ~30% of the total supply (and 62% of the USD value invested) has a cost basis above $95k. This represents significant potential sell pressure if prices drop deeper into this zone, as it would increase unrealized losses and incentivize exits. newsletter.checkonchain.com Unrealized losses are currently minimal (e.g., only a small profile for coins acquired above $112k), but this could grow if momentum slows further. @_Checkmatey_ Overall unrealized value in loss is low (historically around 2-3% in bull phases), compared to bear markets where it spikes to 20%+. @_Checkmatey_ Exchanges perpetually hold ~2.3M BTC available for selling, a level that's remained consistent for years despite claims of depletion. @_Checkmatey_ Daily sell-side from long-term holders alone is around 3k-10k BTC, plus equivalent from short-term traders, underscoring ongoing pressure. @_Checkmatey_ No exact total figure is given for "dry powder left," but the emphasis is on this pressure being substantial and persistent, far outweighing isolated buys.His Understanding and Vision of the Bitcoin MarketCheckOnChain sees Bitcoin as a maturing asset class in a bull market, but one facing persistent headwinds from underestimated sell-side pressure rather than manipulation or "paper Bitcoin." He views the market through an on-chain lens, focusing on supply distribution, cost bases, and investor behavior to navigate volatility. Key pillars include:Demand as the counterforce: Every sold BTC is bought, and the market's ability to absorb 100x more expensive coins this cycle (vs. 2015-17) is "wildly bullish" long-term, signaling strong underlying capital inflows despite resistance. @_Checkmatey_ Maturation via derivatives: Options and other "paper" instruments are essential for institutional adoption, acting as an "insurance market" for hedging risks and enabling larger capital deployment. newsletter.checkonchain.com This is a natural evolution, with markets like IBIT options surpassing traditional crypto derivatives. Current phase: Momentum has slowed, with BTC struggling at the STH cost basis (~$113.6k) amid heavy selling. newsletter.checkonchain.com He holds two competing views: (1) dips into dense cost-basis zones could trigger "buy-the-dip" from bulls if losses aren't extreme, or (2) deeper falls might confirm a cyclical top, growing panic and unrealized losses. newsletter.checkonchain.com Short, sharp loss-taking by STHs (followed by recovery) is a classic bull signal. Overall vision: Bullish on Bitcoin's long-term trajectory as it approaches gold-like market cap (~$20T at $1M/BTC), but realistic about volatility—sellers (especially holders) will always dominate resistance, and markets like mining or treasury firms may face forced sales in downturns. He advises mental preparation, pre-deciding actions for breakouts up or down, and views current pullbacks as "weak sauce" compared to historical bears.

Bitcoin has been boring this year I DCA When Bitcoin is flat or down, that's good for DCA-ers But still I complain When it's up, I'm winning But DCA is less impactful, so still I Bitch I think what we can conclude from this is that I am a little bitch.

Bitcoin is so incredibly boring

Russia is not taken seriously by the EU They're seen basically as a joke Ukraine is kicking them in the teeth all day every day Russia will never win https://youtu.be/-qjrYpDDWS4?si=Oj-G0ERIDH2Vrh4t

We have a crazy president And a shut down government If you look out your window , or drive down the road, you can not tell

New high 125k!

https://futurism.com/advanced-transport/new-data-shows-waymos-safe Love robot cars here in Austin

Dallas is going to beat Green Bay

War is bad mkay https://youtu.be/ECaqX1hCQ6g?si=1YXW8Q6a38KpVK7W

Russia is just plain evil https://youtu.be/wJXIcvLTMSc?si=hTjB9UTwPZsX8NYG

$100k for h1 visa means: 1. Smartest Indians will stay in India 2. Remote work increases 3. IP leakage increases 4. Startups in India are more likely 5. Indian economy strengthening 6. USA economy weakens

Nothing stops this train nostr:nprofile1qqsw4v882mfjhq9u63j08kzyhqzqxqc8tgf740p4nxnk9jdv02u37ncpz4mhxue69uhkummnw3ezumtpd35kutn0dekqz9rhwden5te0dehhxarjwdshganp9ehx2aqkrad8w https://youtu.be/pDWkIRFbEXU?si=6whsJT0W2GnqO9AK

“Satoshi was female” 1. Anonymity would materially improve acceptance of work. In open-source, women’s pull requests historically get accepted more than men’s when gender isn’t identifiable, but acceptance drops when gender is visible. If you’re a woman launching a radical money project into a male-dominated scene, a gender-neutral/male persona maximizes uptake. 2. The crypto/OSS context in 2008–2011 was overwhelmingly male and often hostile. Surveys show women were ~3–9% of these communities; anonymity shields against harassment and bias—clear incentives to hide gender behind a male Japanese pseudonym. 3. Deliberate identity-obfuscation fits someone with extra incentive to hide gender. Satoshi mixed UK/US spellings and left contradictory crumbs (Japan profile vs. native English), classic misdirection. A woman anticipating bias has unusually strong reasons to over-obfuscate. 4. UK locus + male cover name are exactly what you’d pick to deflect gender inference. The genesis block cites The Times (London) headline; timestamp analyses put activity on UK time, yet the handle reads as male-Japanese—highly effective camouflage for a non-Japanese woman in the UK/Europe or US. 5. Communication style: consistently polite, collaborative, face-saving. Satoshi thanks critics, softens disagreements (“Thanks for bringing up that point”), and redirects attention to contributors rather than self—behaviors that sociolinguistics finds more common in women’s politeness strategies (not definitive, but consistent). 6. Extreme de-emphasis of the self (anti-hero posture) tracks the incentives of a woman in that milieu. Satoshi explicitly asked colleagues not to frame the project around the mysterious founder—smart if revealing the person behind it would invite gendered scrutiny. 7. Every high-profile male claimant has been ruled out or discredited. The UK High Court’s 2024 COPA v. Wright judgment found Craig Wright “not Satoshi” and detailed extensive forgeries. As prominent male candidates fall away, the prior on an overlooked, privacy-maximizing woman (or mixed-gender team) rises. 8. “Team Satoshi” remains plausible—and that team could have included a woman. The whitepaper speaks in “we,” and multiple senior devs have mused that the quality/quantity of the early work looks like more than one person. A small, tight team (including a woman) using a single male persona is a clean explanation. 9. Risk calculus unique to women in 2010–2011. As Bitcoin’s association with darknet markets grew, the personal/professional downside of being doxxed was especially high for women in finance/academia/industry. Remaining permanently pseudonymous (and male-coded) minimizes that asymmetric risk. 10. The “Satoshi is Female” refrain isn’t random PR—it's a recognized possibility. Industry leaders have publicly argued we may be biased in assuming “he”; if you set aside that bias and re-score the clues above, “female (or mixed team including a woman)” fits the observable behavior well. None of this is proof. But if you’re asking for the best case: the incentives, the op-sec, the linguistic/behavioral choices, and the debunking of loud male claimants all line up with a woman (or a team including a woman) choosing a male Japanese mask to ship world-changing code without the drag of gendered gatekeeping.

People are funny. Everyone who claimed "free speech" was a right wing talking point/dog whistle/<insert retarded opinion> is now a free speech advocate. Everyone who claimed "free speech" must be protected at all costs is now in favour of censorship and cancel culture. LOL

Here’s what Jimmy Kimmel said (during his Sept. 15 monologue) that caused the backlash: > “We hit some new lows over the weekend with the MAGA gang desperately trying to characterize this kid who murdered Charlie Kirk as anything other than one of them and doing everything they can to score political points from it. In between the finger-pointing, there was grieving.” Also this bit: > “This is not how an adult grieves the murder of someone he called a friend. This is how a 4-year-old mourns a goldfish, okay?” Dictator hates free speech

How can I filter out posts with images or video? Engagement farming annoys

Rand Paul’s Penny Plan is a federal budget proposal built around a very simple rule: cut one penny out of every dollar the government spends, every year, for several years. Core Idea Each year, non-interest federal spending would be reduced by 1% (hence “one penny on the dollar”). After a set number of years (often 5), spending levels would be capped and allowed to grow only at the rate of inflation. The plan is meant to gradually balance the budget without requiring large, sudden cuts to specific programs. Projected Impact By applying just a 1% annual cut across the board, Paul argued the U.S. could balance the budget within about 5 years (depending on assumptions about revenue growth). Supporters see it as a fair, manageable way to rein in deficits without targeting individual programs. Critics argue that “across-the-board” cuts ignore differences in program value and could still mean very deep reductions in essential services over time. Political Context Rand Paul has repeatedly introduced versions of the Penny Plan since 2011. The idea has been popular in conservative circles but has never passed into law. It’s often framed as an alternative to both tax hikes and large entitlement reforms. Want me to run through the math example (say, starting from ~$6 trillion in federal spending) to show how quickly it adds up under his assumptions?

I think the biggest risk to the long-term success of Bitcoin at this point is it's own developers. Some changes will need to be made. But someday an unintended consequence may be accidentally placed there that destroys it all in a way that no one anticipated. It's impossible for the future to be known. Impossible for consequences to be known. These are young men. All men are arrogant. Young ones more so. Similarly, well intentioned laws have hideous 2nd order effects.