"My estimation of value in securities... is not in sync with the markets"
Michael Burry does fundamental analysis. Similar to Warren Buffet closing his fund in 1969, seeing valuations he could not understand. Value investors fare badly in certain inflationary scenarios.
Any rational actor, trying to apply rational metrics to valuations will be slaughtered in the markets when their metrics are broken by a dying unit of account. They cannot see the water that they are swimming in.
At least if you were in Argentina, Venezuela or Zimbabwe you could abandon your hyperinflationary currency and use the external USD as unit of account to keep some kind of financial sanity when valuing stocks. In Weimar Germany you could still use gold as your measuring rod.
But when the meters you have been using all your life to measure and build suddenly start to fluctuate faster than you can adapt, all your calculations are off.
True "markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent"... maybe Burry was just a bit too impatient and shorted the bubble way too soon. After all, he did the same for real estate before 2008, suffering for being far too early but still managing to hold on until he was proven right and profited.
But I think there's something else going on here... the monetary rules have changed in the past decade and most actors have yet to adapt. How big can bubbles grow with 0% reserve requirement at banks? How relatively attractive are equities compared to the $100bn sov debt bubble? How much USD printing is happening or will soon happen to monetise eternal trillion dollar deficits?
A value investing, Benjamin Graham P/E multiples approach to valuation cannot survive in such an environment. Inflationary times are boom times for speculators, debt jugglers and bubble peddlers. Not for mathematicians or accountants.
Autistic superpowers fail if you are focusing on the wrong number. Stop looking at NVDA stock and start looking at money. How it works and how it has changed.
https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/sustainable-finance-reporting/michael-burry-big-short-fame-deregisters-scion-asset-management-2025-11-13/
