RELYING ON PROPERTY AS AN ASSET HAS BECOME DEFECTIVE.
"It was the best idea 200 years ago, but if you own a thousand acres and then someone establishes a state, and a mayor gets elected who decides to spend lavishly, raising your taxes once, twice, thrice, soon the farming family can’t afford the taxes. Then, the government decides you’re the bad guy, takes all your land, and evicts you. Maybe it doesn’t happen directly; maybe first, you mortgage the farm, then can’t pay the mortgage, and the bank seizes your property."
"[...or] the great-grandfather buys a farm, the grandfather and the father both farm the land, but now they can’t pay the taxes on it and have to sell it, moving into apartments"
@Michael Saylor at Bitcoin Atlantis in 2024
A model is just a model, and they can break. The log range used in these types of models is huge, so of course they are anyway useless as trading or timing tools. And as many people have pointed out, these chart models cannot take into account the real world fundamentals, such as the recent launch of the ETFs.
But there is still signal in these charts:
- we can expect ever increasing returns
- returns are a multiple of adoption increase (e.g. 10X adoption = 100X price)
- those returns are DIMINISHING rather than exponential.
You don't necessarily need a Power Law chart to work those things out, but the chart verifies the logic, and is currently the best model when correlating price against time. I don't suggest anyone (seriously) predicts price against time, because it will make you look like a fool.
But it is fun. And it is good marketing for bitcoin, which brings new adoption - and that is good.
A live chart is available at https://charts.bitbo.io/long-term-power-law/.
