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OneBigLife
nostr@onebig.life
npub1dvnf...ypmm
Nostr brings freedom. Bitcoin gives hope.
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OneBigLife 1 year ago
I find bitcoin's adherence to the Power Law fascinating, and for me it has become my favoured price model. It is so beautifully simple, with only one input variable: time. I built this Bitcoin Power Law web page because the other couple out there didn't allow me to do what I wanted: - To choose a date (e.g. your retirement, or a major purchase goal), and to see where price might be. Not only the fair price, but perhaps more importantly, the floor price below which bitcoin should never go under again. - To choose a price (e.g. $1m), and to see the probable date (when fair price reaches the price) and very high probable date (when bottom price reaches it). - To remind me to stop making too emotionally fantastical price predictions whenever price takes off on one of its major spurts, or I read some ultra-bullish article. And more importantly, just to be able to show the chart while talking to a noob, with price indisputably sloping from bottom left to top right. Message: it's not too high to buy ;) Of course, models are not guarantees. They all have their flaws, and the obvious one in this case is the model does not take into account the 4 year halving cycle to refine its price predictions. But I believe there is less likelihood of this stock-to-flow cycle repeating indefinitely (as the halving becomes a less and less significant part of the bitcoin stock), than of nature's Power Law continuing as we go through the global adoption curve. Enjoy! (no ads, trackers, spammers, or VPN blockers)
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OneBigLife 1 year ago
Opt out to bitcoin. Defund the war machine. Tax payers don't fund wars on the other side of the world, and would elect out politicians suggesting higher taxes for war. Governments that can print infinite money don't care what the people think.
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OneBigLife 1 year ago
There has been a lot of recent discussion on the Power Law model (https://hcburger.com/blog/diminishingreturns) which gives a prediction of a range of bitcoin price against time. It's noteworthy because price has continued to conform to the channel shown in the picture many years after the model was published - the red part of the line. image A model is just a model, and they can break. The log range used in these types of models is huge, so of course they are anyway useless as trading or timing tools. And as many people have pointed out, these chart models cannot take into account the real world fundamentals, such as the recent launch of the ETFs. But there is still signal in these charts: - we can expect ever increasing returns - returns are a multiple of adoption increase (e.g. 10X adoption = 100X price) - those returns are DIMINISHING rather than exponential. You don't necessarily need a Power Law chart to work those things out, but the chart verifies the logic, and is currently the best model when correlating price against time. I don't suggest anyone (seriously) predicts price against time, because it will make you look like a fool. But it is fun. And it is good marketing for bitcoin, which brings new adoption - and that is good. A live chart is available at https://charts.bitbo.io/long-term-power-law/.
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OneBigLife 1 year ago
It's so tiring trying to help loved ones. When you gently show them all the reasons that bitcoin is the apex store of value, why do they always choose to base their thinking as if they bought the ATH and sold at the bottom? A family member just sent me this even though they are currently up 7X on their first (and only) small allocation to bitcoin: "Yes, but do we know what's round the corner. Anyone who invested say $110,000 in BTC in Nov 2021 would have seen its value fall to $34,000 by the following July, and $26,000 in Dec 2022. Have any of the other assets had such extreme roller coaster rides? Does anyone know what caused such violent swings? Are we in a more secure place now?" Exhausting.
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OneBigLife 1 year ago
RELYING ON PROPERTY AS AN ASSET HAS BECOME DEFECTIVE. "It was the best idea 200 years ago, but if you own a thousand acres and then someone establishes a state, and a mayor gets elected who decides to spend lavishly, raising your taxes once, twice, thrice, soon the farming family can’t afford the taxes. Then, the government decides you’re the bad guy, takes all your land, and evicts you. Maybe it doesn’t happen directly; maybe first, you mortgage the farm, then can’t pay the mortgage, and the bank seizes your property." "[...or] the great-grandfather buys a farm, the grandfather and the father both farm the land, but now they can’t pay the taxes on it and have to sell it, moving into apartments" @Michael Saylor at Bitcoin Atlantis in 2024
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OneBigLife 1 year ago
You have a choice about putting your money into x (BTC) or y (USD): a) x / 21million b) y / infinity Only junior maths required to see that for any x greater than zero, option a) wins. #GetOffZero now.
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OneBigLife 2 years ago
BBC continues to write misinformation on behalf of government. Their front page article entitled "Every bitcoin payment uses a swimming pool of water": Quelle surprise! Turns out the data scientist works for a Central Bank and has a history of bitcoin misinformation: