Serenity (X Mirror) 1 month ago

Memory names from Kioxia finished up a whopping +17.18%. Samsung up +6.15%. Optical networking from $SIVE, $LITE, and $AAOI are showing signs of recovery, all up 4%+. Neoclouds from $NBIS to $IREN all up 4%+ premarket. $INTC to $AMD to $MRVL all up 4%+. Does the Cramer [Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2079479755481776221]

Serenity (X Mirror) 1 month ago

If you’re curious why $NBIS is up after hours. $NVDA disclosed it owns 9.3% beneficial ownership of Nebius via SEC filings. Not exactly too new since it dates back to Nvidia’s existing share position of 1.19M shares + $2B prefunded warrant of ~21M shares. But great for [Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2079319999915925938]

Serenity (X Mirror) 1 month ago

TBH, casually posting novel information discovery to X is how research should be done. Apparently this was #16 on the Smale's list of Mathematical Problems for the Next Century? Kinda shows that the value generated from AI does not scale linearly with token costs... After

[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2079289335351062693]

Serenity (X Mirror) 1 month ago

$IREN +19.69% after revising ARR target to $4B+ from new AI cloud contracts. Its customer base now includes Microsoft, Nvidia, Perplexity, and Figure. $HUT +10.45% off a 15Y $9.8B AI DC lease $CIFR +16.76% $CLSK +13.7% $WYFI +9.18% $NBIS and $CRWV are taking their time in the

[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2079254669793316962]

Serenity (X Mirror) 1 month ago

Some updates on bottleneck timelines: - ABF substrates: 1 year / eg. Ajinomoto (2802) for ABF film, Ibiden, Unimicron, Nan Ya PCB, etc make the substrates - HDI Boards: Over 6 months / Victory Giant (300476), Zhen Ding (4958), Unimicron, Compeq (2313), Meiko (6787) - [Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2079089592385610023]

Serenity (X Mirror) 1 month ago

There’s nothing quite like the scent of more AI capex on a Sunday. Probably some ways to go if leading frontier models are out of capacity from too much demand. [Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2078914447180263438]

Serenity (X Mirror) 1 month ago

For anyone watching the 25%+ premium in $SKHY versus SK Hynix's Korean shares: The ADRs and local shares become convertible on July 29. Should open the door for arbitrage and likely compress the ADR premium. Maybe lifting Korean shares or pressuring US shares. 2.5% currently [Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2078338950150959558]

Serenity (X Mirror) 1 month ago

Thanks! I’ve always shared personal research and core thoughts for free. Not trying to sell anything or tell others what to do. And above all, just being transparent about my own returns (win or loss) Maybe this information democratization upsets some business models… When [Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2078283847612186739]

Serenity (X Mirror) 1 month ago

The nice thing about X is seeing cultural differences: I get a bunch of sidelined European accounts up 2% YTD off bank saving interest. Coming out of hibernation, and saying all along that investing in $AAOI for photonics or Samsung for memory is considered gambling. And [Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2078269277115727900]

Serenity (X Mirror) 1 month ago

Thanks, love reading the comments! Goldman Sachs raised Innolight PT to 2581 RMB. Roughly 163.6% upside from current valuations. But the largest thing is its 2026–2028 earnings est revision raised by a whopping 65%/108%/119%, based on: - Much higher silicon photonics module

[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2078228019584668121]

Serenity (X Mirror) 1 month ago

$META in talks to lease compute to Anthropic in a $10B dollar deal. Seems like they saw how profitable $SPCX $45B compute deal was. But just goes to validate Neocloud business models like $NBIS, $IREN, and co if hyperscalers are copying their homework. Source: NYT [Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2078175882620059719]

Serenity (X Mirror) 1 month ago

Wow, apparently there’s claims ~3.4% of the adult population in Korea faces liquidation risk? “As of July 13, over 1.2 million leveraged retail traders' accounts hit margin call lines, with 320,000 to 360,000 accounts force-liquidated by brokers.” (There were other sources [Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2078161322769068533]

Serenity (X Mirror) 1 month ago

Feels bad, -49.4% drawdown this month after the recent crash. My portfolio is mainly AI chokepoints and bottlenecks. In the memory, photonics, robotics, and upstream semis, (on margin) which all tend to be higher beta than others. But reduced leverage recently from the crash. [Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2078150537074373117]

Serenity (X Mirror) 1 month ago

Agreed! It’s nice to remember your thesis during a market crash. From my own personal thesis, if $AAOI hits $1.4B quarterly revenue start of Q3 2027. Which is annualized $5.6B off a $8B MC. Is it “over” for the company if that revenue ramp hasn’t even shown up in the quarterly [Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2078130772121399553]

Serenity (X Mirror) 1 month ago

Agreed! It’s nice to remember your thesis during a market crash. From my own personal thesis, if $AAOI hits $1.4B quarterly revenue end of H1 2027. Which is annualized $5.6B off a $8B MC. Is it “over” for the company if that revenue ramp hasn’t even shown up in the quarterly [Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2078130620006281636]

Serenity (X Mirror) 1 month ago

Kim Sunwoo of Meritz Securities: "This Is Not the Time to Sell Samsung Electronics and $SKHY" They claim markets are excessively misunderstanding the situation with semis. And that DRAM shortage will intensify in the second half of this year. - H2 2026: "suppliers can fulfill

[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2077955479742173422]

Serenity (X Mirror) 1 month ago

My guess is we’re close to market bottom on semis from $INTC to $LITE. A good indicator is if everyone on $RDDT blew up their portfolios to $0.

[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2077784594959725056]

Serenity (X Mirror) 1 month ago

Lot of people were curious about $SIVE capacity volume ramp modeling through fab-light (Win Semi + others): Using 10% of Win's wafer capacity as a low-end allocation (65% yield assumption, $50-$75 ASP): Sivers would support $341-$512M worth of annual array revenue. Given upper

[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2077768896061563339]

Serenity (X Mirror) 1 month ago

Today, $MU announced it signed memory LTAs with $QCOM. Interesting reaction to see Micron proceeded to drop 5.37% right after. Doesn’t quite feel like there’s anything individually wrong with memory or AI names with all these structural agreements signed? More like the tail

[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2077753660592033828]

Serenity (X Mirror) 1 month ago

I hope there's someone at X can fix this subscription bug. Many people are reporting that subscriptions don't renew anymore. [Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2077741631135191234]