Serenity (X Mirror) - Nostr Hypermedia

Trump announced that US has cancelled its attack on Iran. And that they’ve agreed to the perimeters of a deal to open the Strait and end the nuclear program. Anyone else feel like they’ve aged a few years in the past 6 months?

[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2083760320062083406]

Serenity (X Mirror) 3 weeks ago

$LITE CEO Michael Hurlston at the RAISE Summit warned that the supply gap for InP lasers for AI DCs: Is facing a more severe supply chain crisis than memory. And with Lumentum's 5 InP fabs, shipments would be more than 30%+ below customer demand. This is especially visible

[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2083438823548293140]

Serenity (X Mirror) 3 weeks ago

The media framing and X reactions around Leopold are egregious. Framing his successful multi-year thesis from $SNDK to $BE as a "collapse" or "failure". After July's surprising crash, then personally attacking him on top is just pathetic to witness. It's almost like everyone [Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2083324920214536208]

Serenity (X Mirror) 3 weeks ago

As a earnings recap: $AMZN, $META, $GOOGL, and $MSFT guided a 2026 combined capex forecast to ~$720-$745 Billion. Up from $695-$725B Billion previously. Amazon: $220B Google: $195B-$205B Meta: $130B-$145B Microsoft: $175B We've already seen significant deleveraging and

[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2083270545320386734]

Serenity (X Mirror) 3 weeks ago

$RDDT ER in a nutshell: Revenue: $804.9M vs. $730.4M (expected). EPS: $1.25 vs. ~$0.95. Net income: $252.8M vs. $196.5M Q3 guidance: Revenue: $860–870M vs. 829.1M Adjusted EBITDA: $385-395M vs. $369M Blowout financials, market always like to explain the drop 22.6% off some new

[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2083225872207937687]

Serenity (X Mirror) 3 weeks ago

Just a TLDR of this week: Media: Hyperscalers overbuilt and are selling excess compute. -> $GOOGL, $MSFT, $META, and $AMZN: Demand for compute far exceeds capacity. Capex go brrr. Institutions: Emergency rate hike or 3x rate hikes, it's all over. -> Kevin Warsh: No rate Hike. [Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2083133191112843575]

Serenity (X Mirror) 3 weeks ago

Now that I think of it more, $POET optical interposer piece is actually a little more material than I thought with $SIVE. Originally the wording was "readiness" for EOY 2026. But $POET upgraded that wording, by stating "production" with Sivers lasers projected EOY 2026. So

[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2083114743729107236]

Serenity (X Mirror) 3 weeks ago

For $XFAB ER transcript: Just to recap, my idea on $XFAB foundry growth opportunities stemmed from SiC for 800v and photonixfab/MTP for CPO applicability. - $XFAB: "We are making progress in co-packaged optics". - "The transition to 800v... is expected to support demand

[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2083106805949878330]

Serenity (X Mirror) 3 weeks ago

Few earnings TLDRs with my favorite $AXTI and $AMZN: Amazon: - Raised 2026 capex to $220B vs. prior $200B (partly due to higher memory costs, which is bullish on $MU to Samsung) - Even at $220B, Amazon will not have enough capacity to meet all 2026 demand; Jassy expects the [Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2083088870942642391]

Serenity (X Mirror) 3 weeks ago

Did Citadel really just liquidate Situational Awareness… Then brought up entire markets the next day? $NBIS +26.25% $IREN +25.96% $SHAZ +22.82% $SNDK + 23.98% $BE +23.67% $SKHY +16.98% $INTC +12.16% Amid many others. This has gotta be one of the wildest liquidations I’ve

[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2082896789880119590]

Serenity (X Mirror) 3 weeks ago

There's a lot of stupid commentary around Leopold raising funds. After names like $BE, $SNDK, $SHAZ, and others all had very sharp drawdowns in July. Just remember... here's a man in finance that's 1. 6'5 2. Blue Eyes 3. Hedge Fund Probably better looking than you, and was up [Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2082740477795745942]

Serenity (X Mirror) 3 weeks ago

Just some interesting takeaways from $FORM earnings call on CPO: Since they attributed systems revenue nearly doubled due to: "accelerating growth in co-packaged optics or CPO". Q1 2026: "we now expect 2026 CPO revenues to come in at the high end of the $10 million to $20

[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2082720873908494456]

Serenity (X Mirror) 0 months ago

Just some takeaways from $META | $MSFT earnings calls: Microsoft: - Expected to be FCF positive in 2027, despite the increase in capex (extremely positive for AI buildout that it's funded by operating income) - "Free cash flow was $19.6 billion, reflecting higher capital [Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2082605568699871284]

Serenity (X Mirror) 0 months ago

$AXTI enters long term agreement with $LITE for InP substrates. Lumentum has agreed to pay a deposit of $43.5M as a reservation for capacity.

[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2082578803189268855]

Serenity (X Mirror) 0 months ago

To show solidarity with the $IREN holders: I now own 1 share of IREN. [Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2082557648298516918]

Serenity (X Mirror) 0 months ago

Federal Reserve leaves rates unchanged at unchanged at 3.50% - 3.75%. So far so good, since markets would have sold off on an immediate rate hike (seem to have largely frontran hike expectations off already). Think everyone is waiting for the Fed Chair commentary now.

[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2082529316655763703]

Serenity (X Mirror) 0 months ago

US Gov to take 1% stake in $GFS, and award them $300m for the US CHIPS ACT. This is actually a strong read through on $SIVE / $LITE, given this CHIPS ACT is specifically aimed at advancing CPO + Silicon Photonics. (For reference, Sivers and Lumentum were the only two public

[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2082513405219631384]

Serenity (X Mirror) 0 months ago

I personally see it as extreme short term deleveraging that overshot many individual names. - $BE to $TER reported blowout results, with Bloom reporting 166% Y/Y rev growth + expanding margins + raised 2026 guidance... Teradyne reported 104% Y/Y revenue growth with 300%+ EPS [Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2082230983487803755]

Serenity (X Mirror) 0 months ago

FCC set to ban Chinese imports of humanoid and quadruped robots per Reuters. To protect American Humanoid/Robotics programs. Agility Robotics ( $CCXI ) and other US humanoid players should be happy to hear this.

[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2082175588555702410]

Serenity (X Mirror) 1 month ago

Wow, $CMXT is up a very normal +469.98% after going public today. Now valuing it at ~$487.31 billion, up from $85.5 billion. Did any of my Chinese followers buy into the IPO?

[Source: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2081579593815978273]