In today's Island Wealth Strategic Report you will get a summary of this video with Alasdair MacLeod below.
You can take this to your next Family Office meeting, with your wife or husband and your kids, where you discuss how the kids are going to manage your wealth in this Credit bubble we are in.
Nothing is financial advise, for educational and entertainment purposes only. I'm not your financial advisor. I only care about your wealth.
π§ Strategic Economic Intelligence Report
Based on Alasdair Macleod β WTFinance Interview: β1929 Repeat As Credit Bubble Collapsesβ
π
Date: July 28, 2025 | ποΈ Duration: ~42 minutes
βΈ»
π Top 10 Summary Insights
1. β οΈ We are at the peak of a global credit bubble β unsustainable debt levels mirror 1929.
2. π Bond yields rising = massive repricing of debt, crushing bond and equity valuations.
3. π Debt trap dynamics β higher interest payments lead to higher deficits, lower growth, and a vicious spiral.
4. π Global recession already underway β small and mid-sized businesses are struggling, official stats are misleading.
5. πΈ Fiat currencies are rapidly devaluing β itβs not gold rising, itβs fiat collapsing.
6. ποΈ Central banks are trapped β no room to cut interest rates in a stagflationary environment.
7. ποΈ Property values will collapse in real terms β even luxury villas can become net liabilities.
8. βοΈ Base and precious metals remain deeply undervalued (lowest since 1900 in gold terms).
9. 𧨠Crisis is inevitable β timeframe: within the next 18 months or sooner.
10. π‘οΈ Preserving wealth is now more important than growing it. Get out of credit. Get into corporeal money (gold/silver).
βΈ»
π List of Economic Variables Mentioned
π Variable Linkage Flow (Simplified Macro Chain)
Debt Levels β β Bond Yields β β Credit Cost β β Business Defaults β β Equity Prices β β Confidence β β Investment β β Recession β β Tax Revenue β β Budget Deficit β β Currency Confidence β β Inflation β β Fiat Value β β Gold/Silver β β Real Estate (Net Real Value) β β Capital Flight β
π₯ Risk & Opportunity Snapshot β Your Asset Overview
π¨βπ©βπ§βπ¦ Family Home Wealth Meeting β What to Discuss π£οΈ
π 1. βGet Out of Creditβ
β Move savings from banks, debt instruments, and leveraged property into assets with no counterparty risk.
π‘ 2. Donβt Count on Real Estate
β Reassess long-term assumptions. High maintenance and low liquidity make it risky in currency collapse scenarios.
πͺ 3. Increase Exposure to Physical Precious Metals
β This is the only historical store of value across systemic collapses.
π« 4. Reconsider Crypto as a Hedge
β Bitcoin is not functioning as true money in this scenario. Itβs speculative and power-dependent.
π 5. Expect 18-Month Crunch Window
β Prepare liquidity buffers and escape routes (i.e. residency, backup plans, physical asset access).
π§ 6. Teach the Next Generation
β Introduce basic concepts of βreal money vs. credit,β the history of fiat, and importance of independence.
π° Capital Allocation Recommendation
π§ Final Message from Alasdair (paraphrased)
βItβs not about growing your wealth anymore. Itβs about protecting it.
Get out of credit. Get into real, physical money.β
π― TL;DR
Preserve > Grow.
Get out of debt-backed assets.
Gold is not going up β your money is going down.
Runy Calmera
Island Wealth

π₯ Risk & Opportunity Snapshot β Your Asset Overview
π¨βπ©βπ§βπ¦ Family Home Wealth Meeting β What to Discuss π£οΈ
π 1. βGet Out of Creditβ
β Move savings from banks, debt instruments, and leveraged property into assets with no counterparty risk.
π‘ 2. Donβt Count on Real Estate
β Reassess long-term assumptions. High maintenance and low liquidity make it risky in currency collapse scenarios.
πͺ 3. Increase Exposure to Physical Precious Metals
β This is the only historical store of value across systemic collapses.
π« 4. Reconsider Crypto as a Hedge
β Bitcoin is not functioning as true money in this scenario. Itβs speculative and power-dependent.
π 5. Expect 18-Month Crunch Window
β Prepare liquidity buffers and escape routes (i.e. residency, backup plans, physical asset access).
π§ 6. Teach the Next Generation
β Introduce basic concepts of βreal money vs. credit,β the history of fiat, and importance of independence.
π° Capital Allocation Recommendation
π§ Final Message from Alasdair (paraphrased)
βItβs not about growing your wealth anymore. Itβs about protecting it.
Get out of credit. Get into real, physical money.β
π― TL;DR
Preserve > Grow.
Get out of debt-backed assets.
Gold is not going up β your money is going down.
Runy Calmera
Island Wealth

Picture this: The Street of Hormuz...
And ask yourself: how will the war between Israel and Iran affect the Caribbean islands?
That is a question I expect from the small islands I consult. Wars, always affect the wealth of islands.
Here are some aspects to consider:
How is the war financed?
If USA is sending weapons for the war, who is paying for the weapons? Most of the time if you don't know who is paying, YOU, are paying for it. USA has debt it cannot every pay back. That is what some global macro analysts like Ray Dalio, have said. It can pay it back, but through printing of money. More credit, more debt. So the first aspect is: probably the war will lead to more debt in the USA. And more debt ultimately means that the US Dollar is put under pressure. More debt means the purchasing power of the dollar decreases.
As most Caribbean island's currency is pegged to the US dollar, a war means your purchasing power of your currency is decreasing. The XCg, Caribbean dollar of Curacao, the EC$, the Eastern Caribbean dollar of the ECCU, the US Dollar used by Turks and Caicos...all somehow pegged to the US Dollar.
What will the effect be on the prices?
On top of it, the prices. The war is being fought and there is the Street of Hormuz. I read that a significant part of the oil of the world goes through that street.
Now imagine a war, around that street. It means more risks, more unstable trade flows. And it means oil prices can go up.
For the Caribbean this will mean, as they almost all import oil, higher oil prices. So it means higher import bills for the Caribbean. It means higher electricity prices and fuel costs.
Of course the island's governments will try to subsidize this for 3-4 months. But if the situation continues, it will mean that they will have to let the oil prices pass to consumers.
So the scenario to run with the macro economic models of the Caribbean (I got 12 of them) will be higher inflation, due to higher oil prices. I can tell you, based on previous scenarios run, that this is bad for the purchasing power of Caribbean citizens, bad for consumption, because if your purchasing power decreases, consumption goes down. And if consumption go dow the demand goes down.
Combined to maybe less traveling of USA tourists....
Imagine a scenario where USA tourists stay home, don't travel. Now you got a worst case scenario.
For a Caribbean economy the summary is this:
- Higher import costs due to higher fuel costs, due to higher oil prices
- Lower consumption, due to lower purchasing power
- Lower exports due to lower (USA) tourist arrivals, less people spending
That is it. A war impacts your Caribbean economy negatively.
So the war going on in the Middle East is not something that cannot affect you.
Let me say that a war is a most devastating on people's lives. As a macro economist I'm here to tell you what it means for your economy. How this trickles down on your economy, on your wealth.
If you are a citizen of a Caribbean economy, the USA and you want to know more about how this war affects your purchasing power, your live let me know below.
Runy Calmera
Island Wealth
Here is a dark picture for the G7. I have to recreate this graph myself based on the data but it shows you the economic power behind the scene:
- BRICS's gross domestic product, that is the total annual income of the BRICS nations is now 36% of the world while the same number of the G7 is 29%
- 23 years ago it was almost the opposite: the share of the G7 was double the share of the BRICS.
What does this mean?
The economic power of the "South" has drastically increased. While that of the "West" has declined or stayed stagnant. Has only increased by 5%.
In 23 years the South has increased their economic power.
Now my question is:
For the Caribbean: if your tourists are only coming from the G7 nations, with a very concentration on USA, what should you do? Isn't it an idea to try to trade with the BRICS? Their economies are growing fast.
If you want to know more about the economies of the BRICS just let me know below. Tell me what you want to know and if I can I will answer.
If you want to know more about the economy of the USA, I'm building an economic model of the USA. Basically it contains all the relevant data and you can run scenarios on it. You can use it as a way to discuss and analyze the USA economy.
If you want to hear more about that and why that is relevant to you - e.g. why should YOU care about the economy of the USA, let me know below.
Island Wealth
You Can Do it!!!!
Already one week staying more on Nostr than on Linkedin. My slowly move to #Nostr from Linkedin is working. I'm not having any panic attacks, like this guy.
Need to find a way to stream directly to Nostr through OBS. Without using any hosting software like Zap Stream.
What are you guys using to stream directly to Nostr?
Runy