Andre Leblanc
andreleblanc@iris.to
npub1j6un...rawp
Freedom and liberties advocate, bitcoiner. Austrian Economics, geopolitics and geoeconomics.
TRUE Realized Price is more US$ 32,000 than 21.000.
Bitcoin's normally calculated realized price is currently around US$ 21,300. However, its "real" cost price average should be much higher according to a recent Glassnode/ARK-Invest paper: more around US$ 32,000. This leaves much of bitcoiners still underwater at the current price of US$ 27.120.
The Realized Price is normally calculated by taking the realized cap / circulating supply. The circulating supply includes also Satoshi and other seemingly lost coins which were never actually priced but were nevertheless included in the denominator of the circulating supply. This lowers the whole average of "realized price". Those coins therefore must be accounted for by filtering them out. Leaving only the active coins, the research paper comes up with a much higher "realized price" (the real average cost price) of US$ 32,000.
This topic is discussed by @Stephan Livera in his podcast 510 "Cointime economics with James Check" 
Stephan Livera
SLP510 Is On-Chain Analytics Legit? Cointime Economics with James Check
A common question amongst bitcoin investors is whether bitcoin on-chain analytics is legitimate or whether it is snake oil. Joining me to explore t...

Gold Goats 'n Guns
Elon Musk, The ADL, and Why the War for Speech Is Heating Up - Gold Goats 'n Guns
Elon Musk takes on both the ADL and Ukraine in one week and the good guys are trying to sabotage it with libertarian purity spiraling
After ditching the ESG "brand name" because too many of us started calling things with their name, the same people alter their agenda to rebrand the same old same old parasitic rent extractive degenerated fiat capitalism as the "Inclusive Capitalism with the Vatican"!!! LOOOOOL
The group of global parasites is headed by Lyn Forester married Rothschild (yes the same Jewish banking-mafia dynasty) and it now includes the Christian Church along the Ford Foundation, Mark Carney former Gov of the BoE, Mastercard, Allianz Group, Dupont, BP, Merck & Co, BofA, Sate Street, etc.
A bunch of bloodthirsty globalist parasites telling you that they will suddenly start acting in your interest to make their predatory capitalism become "inclusive". What they probably mean is they will want to "include" what´s left in your wallet into THEIR pockets. LOOOOL
Opt out get Bitcoin.
#bitcoin #fiat #globalist

Remix News
George Soros still active in Europe: Company backed by Soros takes control of top Polish daily paper
A company backed by the Soros Economic Development Fund has taken control of two major Polish newspapers, raising concerns over far-left media bias...
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TifaniesweTs (@TifaniesweTs) on X
UPDATE – French President Macron regarding Niger:
"Our policy is simple: we do not recognize the putschists, we support a president who has not ...
CFA franc - Wikipedia
Just compare what this idiotic warmonger who avoided Vietnam says
with what this decorated veteran Colonel says


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Senator Mitt Romney (@SenatorRomney) on X
The single most important thing we can do to strengthen America relative to China is to see Russia defeated in Ukraine. A weakened Russia deters th...
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Tucker Carlson (@TuckerCarlson) on X
Ep. 18 Into the abyss: Colonel Douglas Macgregor tells us why the Ukraine war must end now.
The Tether issue keeps coming back to hunt BTC price valuations.
It is not only @Lyn Alden ´s "FANS" who simply repeat the meme to trash on her excellent book without having read a single word of it, but also competent and qualified people like Doomberg on a recent Whatbitcoindid show who keep raising the issue.
https://www.whatbitcoindid.com/podcast/the-breakdown-of-trust-with-doomberg
Regardless of whether Tether is fully backed or not by USD (which issue we cannot solve but only trust the evidence provided by Tether), its impact on the BTC price is however an issue that must be dealt with in practical terms. Since I believe it is either neutral or a net positive for the BTC price in the long term, this must be finally classified as FUD once and for all.
Shall we? Let´s see:
- Tether creates 1 million USDT not backed by USD.
- 1 million unbacked USDT flows into BTC and raises the price from say 20.000 to 25.000
- The creator of unbacked USDT now wants to cash in and sells BTC at 25.000 bringing down the price again at 20.000
The point is, whatever amount of fiat flows into BTC fixed/inelastic supply, whether fake USDT or fake fiat USD, whether printed by Tether Corp or by the FED, it only increases the price of BTC momentarily until the same amount exists and is converted into fiat again. Therefore it can only be a short term price manipulation which may generate a profit for the manipulator if his buying into BTC is strong enough to create a bubble and FOMO effect to induce exponential buying from other peoples to whom he can sell before the price come back down again. But when he exists the position the same will happen to the downside. Therefore it is irrelevant/neutral for the long term price of BTC as soon as the manipulator is replaced by new demand for BTC.
Otherwise your "fan" has to assume that there is an infinite creation of unbacked USDT or fake fiat which is flowing into BTC to sustain its price ad infinitum, which is clearly not the case.
Or, last but not least, the opposite may also happen: those holding unbacked USDT rush to the doors trying to convert USDT into fiat USD. Since there is not enough fiat USD for all of them the effect is the classic bank run. Tether goes bust, the idiots holding USDT lose their shirts and their underwears and the smart ones flow into BTC for safety supporting its price.
Either way, it is either neutral for BTC price or a net positive.
OR AM I MISSING SOMETHING?? Constructive thoughts are highly appreciated.
#bitcoin #tether #usdt #usd #whatbitcoindid
@npub1pyp9...c0qq @Michael Saylor @jack mallers @Jeff Booth @jimmysongWHAAAAAT?? Ukraine is losing the war? Not after hundreds of billions of US$ and €uro have been thrown into the Ukrainian black hole, right? Putin is not a crazy psycho after all? Zelenskyy is rather a corrupted puppet, selling out his country and the blood of his fellow citizens for personal profit?
That could not possibly be true, right?
Wars are mafia-rackets artificially created to extract wealth from the populations and redirect the flows into the hands of ever more powerful, corrupted and extortionary elites. Cut the oxygen they breathe and they will die. Take away the fake corrupted fiat money they need to finance those wars and the world will prosper and will be more peaceful and egalitarian. Bitcoin is the answer, the silent and peaceful revolution which will stop most wars, increase our well-being and redirect the elites´ political incentives away from the toxic corrupted fiat donor's/lobbies agendas towards the well-being of the populations.
https://www.cfr.org/article/how-much-aid-has-us-sent-ukraine-here-are-six-charts
#russia #bitcoin #ukraine #putin #ukrainewar #war #zelenskyy
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Tucker Carlson (@TuckerCarlson) on X
Ep. 18 Into the abyss: Colonel Douglas Macgregor tells us why the Ukraine war must end now.
#russia #bitcoin #ukraine #putin #ukrainewar #war #zelenskyyNo doubt there is a thread linking epochal events like September 11, 2008 Financial Crisis, Covid, the Ukraine War and the Climate Change hysteria. "Never let a good crisis go to waste" is what power elites always do to implement their agendas.
Narratives are built to foster the Agenda. Controlled media condition the populations via a well known psychological mechanism known as "mass formation psychosis". This is how totalitarian regimes are created.
The only antidote is for those who see through the "fog" to speak the truth.
#nostr is a tool to freedom of speech. Just like #bitcoin is the tool to financial freedom.
Below three articles today beating the drums of "fear" once again.
#covid
Narratives are built to foster the Agenda. Controlled media condition the populations via a well known psychological mechanism known as "mass formation psychosis". This is how totalitarian regimes are created.
The only antidote is for those who see through the "fog" to speak the truth.
#nostr is a tool to freedom of speech. Just like #bitcoin is the tool to financial freedom.
Below three articles today beating the drums of "fear" once again.

Alt-Market.us
From Covid To Climate Change: Vehicles For Global Authoritarianism - Alt-Market.us
By Brandon Smith As I have noted in the past, the western world came within a knife’s edge of being...
ZeroHedge
ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
ZeroHedge
ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
Capital controls are already here. Operation "Choke Point Crypto 2.0" continues unabated. This time targets sex workers.
https://twitter.com/alanaevansxxx/status/1565774593771446272
The pressure is raised not only on Banks which shut down their fiat accounts but most worryingly on Crypto Exchanges which are also now banning them, therefore preventing the conversion of crypto into fiat. Make yourselves no illusion: the first thing that ALL governments do when their fiat currencies collapse is to enforce capital controls. In the crypto space, the only way to enforce capital controls is to shut down the fiat to crypto gates via the intermediaries (exchanges).
TRUE ADOPTION AND bitcoin's use as a currency for payments must be increased for a parallel financial system to work. The likes of El Salvador, Argentina, Venezuela, Turkey, Africa, etc are fundamental to bitcoin adoption. Blackrock´s ETF is only dangerous financialization of bitcoin. May rise the price of bitcoin in the short term, but may well turn out to be a net negative in the long term. Adoption will come from the base (us plebs) not certainly from the top (fiat elites). NOSTR helps that.
#bitcoin #crypto #nostr
ZeroHedge
ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
Do you own Grayscale´s shares and wish to redeem it for BTC? Now you can join Alameda´s law suit as a co-defendant here up to September 1st
https://grayscalelitigation.com/


The environmental, human and economic true costs of electric vehicles
#nature #bitcoin
Clean Energy Exploitations and the Death Spiral of an Auto Industry – MishTalk
#nature #bitcoinA topic worth exploring from this linked article of @npub1pyp9...c0qq
The interrelations/reflexive effects between derivatives #bitcoin markets (futures/options) and spot market. What I am trying to understand here is whether there is an opportunity for manipulation of the BTC price. Dylan says: "When market participants sell volatility through options, market makers respond by adjusting their hedges in the underlying asset, creating a stabilizing “pinning” effect near certain price levels where there is substantial open interest. To maintain a neutral position, market makers dynamically buy or sell the underlying asset in response to price movements of options, reinforcing the pinning effect. This equilibrium, however, can be shattered by unexpected events or shifts in sentiment, causing market makers to rapidly re-hedge. This leads to a sudden and significant price and volatility movement, reflecting the delicate and interconnected nature of options trading, market making and asset dynamics. This is precisely what occurred yesterday."
Then he mentions the Deribit options market as the place where all this happened. But my understanding is that this market is not PHYSICALLY settled (meaning that the option bets are settled in fiat and not in BTC) therefore there is no feedback loop between the spot market and the derivatives market as there is in the Gold futures market which can be settled physically. Only the OKEx market is settled in BTC.
I would instead make a case for manipulation in the spot market to benefit someone's derivatives bets. I would rather argue that the triggering event was a massive spot market liquidation to bring down the spot price and benefit from derivatives bets. For instance: I am a market maker selling call options to market participants who bet heavily long on a BTC price breaking above US$ 28.500 which was quite likely for technical analysis (important 100 MA and 200 MA levels converging).
I throw a load of BTC on the market and I cause this to be the peak of the moment. I clearly sell at a profit. This causes a cascading effect and compresses the price to the US$ 26.000 level. I also cash in all the call options I sold which then expire out of the money. Then I switch sides and go long the futures and options markets at the 26.000 level and reinvest the profits made from the first washing cycle buying spot BTC to lift the price. A large enough BTC whale can play this game over and over.
I wonder what are the thoughts of @Lyn Alden and @Michael Saylor and @Parker Lewis and @Marty Bent on that topic.
Let us know, this is an important topic worth exploring in more detail. #bitcoin

Bitcoin Volatility Is Back!
After a prolonged period of muted volatility, the bitcoin price had a violent swing to the downside, catching many derivatives traders off guard an...
I throw a load of BTC on the market and I cause this to be the peak of the moment. I clearly sell at a profit. This causes a cascading effect and compresses the price to the US$ 26.000 level. I also cash in all the call options I sold which then expire out of the money. Then I switch sides and go long the futures and options markets at the 26.000 level and reinvest the profits made from the first washing cycle buying spot BTC to lift the price. A large enough BTC whale can play this game over and over.
I wonder what are the thoughts of @Lyn Alden and @Michael Saylor and @Parker Lewis and @Marty Bent on that topic.
Let us know, this is an important topic worth exploring in more detail. #bitcoinToday Tornado Cash Developers were Charged with Money Laundering and Sanctions Violations by US Govt.
@`ODELL`and @`waxwing` rightly expressed their concerns and worries for all #bitcoin developers in this post
While I am not a criminal lawyer nor US qualified to be competent on that matter however the few bits and pieces gathered from the linked articles smell of a very "ideologically" motivated case by the US prosecutor.
I think @waxwing is right "If they didn't, then this is even worse, because it means US LE are prepared to make *really* tortuous arguments to go after privacy software developers."
Let´s remember that this is just the Public Prosecutor´s thesis and that nowadays public prosecutors are very much politically/ideologically biased. That the accusations are stretched to the max to try to build a case I would point to the following: "The DOJ further alleged that the defendants knew their service was being used to launder funds from hacks and other thefts"
Does under US Law the knowledge that a software you have built has been used for a crime makes yourself (the programmer) a criminal?`I very much doubt. How could you prove beyond reasonable doubt that I had knowledge of crimes being committed? Doubtful as well.
Also: "The DAO is an entity unto itself that, through its voting members, has demonstrated an agreement to a common purpose. As the government notes, the structure is not unlike that of stockholders of a corporation who may not intend to vote in a shareholder meeting, without this affecting the structure of the entity," the judge wrote.
Not very clear here whether the judge really understands (or cares to understand) how a DAO works. Who retains a majority of tokens/votes in this case? it is only the 2 accused or a number of token holders? Should you then prosecute all of them.
Also, once established the DAO operates automatically. How can then a token holder shut it down? The fact that the US government could not shut Tornado Cash down but only sanction it is the proven fact that the 2 accused could not change the course of events and could not stop crimes if any were committed. It is like saying: even if you could not stop the crime being committed you are charged anyways because you shuld have had previous knowledge that your software would be used for criminal purposes. Ehh??? Besides Tornado Cash and all other mixers have very legitimate uses for privacy concerned people. I would say that criminal activity is likely very marginal. Therefore it is by definition not a software built exclusively for criminal activity. Quite the contrary. Then how could the DOJ infer the developer´s criminal intent?? It is like charging the owner of a factory which manufactures screwdrivers with homicide because someone killed a person with a screwdriver.
My feeling is that we are in the area of highly politically motivated fantasy criminal charges. A good US criminal lawyer should win the case.
The bad thing though is that the DOJ will try to inflict as much pain as possible to the developers to make an example of them. Therefore I would recommend ALL #bitcoin developers to be very careful about their work and about revealing their identities. Back in 2008 Satoshi had understood this all too well.
I would also encourage you developers to keep up the great work you are doing especially on the area of bitcoin´s #privacy. Unfortunately it is all too clear to me that we are in a long term battle and that the elites and their political puppets who hold the keys to this fuckery fiat monetary system will do all they can to disrupt Bitcoin adoption. Be humble and keep your privacy levels very very high indeed. Always think in adversarial terms. Bitcoin was built for that.

waxwing
This is really big, and really bad news. The essential point seems to be that there is an argument that they *could* have exerted control....
Anderweltonline.com: Die NASA weiß, warum das Wetter so seltsam ist
Anderweltonline.com: Die NASA weiß, warum das Wetter so seltsam ist

NASA
Tonga Eruption Blasted Unprecedented Amount of Water Into Stratosphere - NASA
The huge amount of water vapor hurled into the atmosphere, as detected by NASA’s Microwave Limb Sounder, could end up temporarily warming Earth...
An interview worth watching in FULL for every American and European citizen. Colonel Macgregor gives Tucker Carlson a balanced view of the Ukraine conflict, its true reasons and effects on both the USA and Europe. For most people who have been "indoctrinated" by the mainstream media narrative hearing him will be truly shocking. It is an interview full of rationality and common sense which is missing among the mainstream media and the political elites on both sides of the ocean (this is why we have arrived at this dangerous junction). He mentions that the US has spent over 14 trillion US$ since 2001 on useless wars around the world. The fact that "the economy luminaries" deem it "meaningless" highlights what every bitcoiner understands. Which is that a corrupted fiat money system corrupts everything. Those wars are like mafia-rackets artificially created to extract wealth from the populations and redirect the flows into the hands of ever more powerful, corrupted and extortionary elites. Blackrocks´ farmland grabs in Ukraine are mentioned as well as Nulands´ neocon-gang deals and the corruption of Zelensky´s circus of money launderers who will end up enjoying in their western luxury mansions the billions they have skimmed from the war machine while over half a million Ukranian young soldiers have so far shed their blood and have been coldly thrown into the meat grinder of this useless war for personal profits.
Cut away the oxygen they breath and they will die. Take away the fake corrupted fiat money they need to finance those wars and the world will prosper and will be more peaceful and egalitarian. Bitcoin is the answer, the silent and peaceful revolution which will stop most wars, increase our well-being and redirect the elites´ political incentives away from the toxic corrupted fiat donor´s/lobbies agendas towards the well-being of the populations.

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Tucker Carlson (@TuckerCarlson) on X
Ep. 18 Into the abyss: Colonel Douglas Macgregor tells us why the Ukraine war must end now.
