Chart is becoming a mess and I'm going to remove some time trends from lower time frames. I thought the bullish retracement would have provided a higher time frame down trend (required a more bullish retracement). That didn't happen. Rather price closed at a new weekly low. closed under the weekly trend for the first time in 3 years, retested and sold off. I extend these trends out as far as I can. Time wise that's where price could be by May of this year if the trend remains intact. In 2022 the 2nd leg down shared the same trend on the 12 and 4hr. This time the highest time frame I have is 4h - I've been eying the same areas of interest as Peter Brandt since the end of October. I am not calling a bottom from here. I'll call a bottom when we're at a bottom. I wish I started this on NOSTR months ago, but I've decided that I'm here now. I don't have to call turns, I already said market structure didn't support the bullish case. I'm here because i plan on taking loans using HODL HODL if it's useful and makes sense. Have you ever tried it? I played with it a few years back. The platform works as advertised, just a very limited hang out, not a lot of choice there. I think it's pretty cool, but you take on stable coin risk
Grace_Too
gracetoo@nostrplebs.com
npub14509...6gx4
Ideologically motivated Bitcoin Extremist
Chart is becoming a mess and I'm going to remove some time trends from lower time frames. I thought the bullish retracement would have provided a higher time frame down trend (required a more bullish retracement). That didn't happen. Rather price closed at a new weekly low. closed under the weekly trend for the first time in 3 years, retested and sold off. I extend these trends out as far as I can. Time wise that's where price could be by May of this year if the trend remains intact. In 2022 the 2nd leg down shared the same trend on the 12 and 4hr. This time the highest time frame I have is 4h - I've been eying the same areas of interest as Peter Brandt since the end of October. I am not calling a bottom from here. I'll call a bottom when we're at a bottom. I wish I started this on NOSTR months ago, but I've decided that I'm here now. I don't have to call turns, I already said market structure didn't support the bullish case. I'm here because i plan on taking loans using HODL HODL if it's useful and makes sense. Have you ever tried it? I played with it a few years back. The platform works as advertised, just a very limited hang out, not a lot of choice there. I think it's pretty cool, but you take on stable coin risk
A purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash would allow online
payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution.
Bitcoin and the Quiet Power of Not Needing Permission
People often argue about Bitcoin as if its success depends on convincing everyone else it’s a good idea. That’s understandable—we’re wired to think persuasion drives adoption. But most durable technologies don’t win debates. They quietly make themselves useful.
Bitcoin doesn’t ask for trust. It doesn’t care about credentials, intentions, or narratives. It works the same way on good days and bad ones, which is rare in finance. Most systems perform best when confidence is high and break when it disappears. Bitcoin does the opposite—it was designed for when trust is lowest.
Price matters to people because price buys freedom. Higher prices allow individuals to exit systems they don’t like, fund their own education, and take risks that compound over time. But price doesn’t matter to Bitcoin itself. The network settles transactions whether it’s fashionable or forgotten.
This distinction causes confusion. Some see institutional involvement as validation, others as corruption. Both miss the point. Institutions don’t define Bitcoin’s value; they adapt to it. They always have. That’s what institutions do when confronted with something they can’t control.
What’s most interesting is who won’t need to be convinced. Machines don’t respond to marketing. AI agents won’t debate monetary policy or care about social legitimacy. They’ll choose tools that are predictable, final, and globally interoperable. Bitcoin fits that description in a way few systems do.
In the long run, the market won’t care who explained Bitcoin best. It will care who used it when it mattered. And the quiet advantage of a system that doesn’t need permission is that it keeps working long after the arguments fade.
- Markets may fluctuate; settlement continues.
Fiat Bitcoinists are going to hate 2026 - I'm here to buy their tears in the streets when the hour comes
Was 97.9K the high for 2026? This week I'm going to watch to see how price bounced between the 1h and 12hr trends. It looks a lot like a falling wedge pattern is forming, which could be the pattern that sets up the next down trend. What's the play? Build a your cash position. Sell your extra chairs, get that OT. Work your ass off for the next 5 months so you can be a buy the blood in the streets. If a rally is produced from this wedge I'd definitely look to fade it
Weekly is closing below the trend and the weekly low set by the first wave in the 2026 bear market. 2022 produced a second down trend on the 12h time frame. I was looking for that fractal coming out of this correction, but so far that has not materializedGrace_Too
gracetoo@nostrplebs.com
Weekly uptrend from 2023: Being tested
First potential close below since 2023
12hr: Bearish since Oct
Range: $87-99k
Liquidity: Being absorbed
Regime: NEUTRAL
Waiting for price appreciation to establish next downtrend anchor point. Until then, no major trend signal.
If this weekly support fails, expect the "Bitcoin is dead" headlines to return - The 4yr cycle is your friend to the end


The only editing I do to my trend lines is extending them. I think of them as heart lines because they’re very much alive
I’m neutral in my bias. Waiting to see if the 4 year was really dead. I’ve been telling my friends that the S/R was the line in the sand. It was rejected, now price is trading below the weekly up trend. I’m still neutral as we’re in the trading range. We are in the B wave of an ABC correction from my perspective. Like 2022 I’m looking for a C wave to emerge. We are very close in time to finding out. I don’t think we just sell off from here, not yet, but it’s not looking favourable right now.
We are under a 1h down trend, and below the weekly uptrend but still range bound
Buying strength to me looks like a weekly close over 100k until then be patient and keep accumulating a cash position


I see so much garbage chart analysis it hurts. I’m not a trader, but I love charting Bitcoin. I told everyone I know, strangers included to buy in Jan 2023, I told them to HODL ever since. Now I’m ringing the alarm bell again, build up a cash position because I believe that we’re going to find a bottom again Q3 this year. Sorry to say, but the 4 year cycle has prematurely called dead, and this is great news. Here is my unique trend following chart. No one does charts like I do. You couldn’t copy me if you tried. I see a fractal pattern no one is talking about here it is on the weekly TF


What does the world look like after a 5th wave impulse move to 13% on the US10yr revisiting when all of this started in 1984


I’m not a pro, but I think we should give a different name to this chart pattern here on the ETHBTC since it’s ghey The Adam and Steve, so be a friend to the mETH heads in your circles and get them on Bitcoin. Friends don’t let friends mETH


Look at how excited the plebs are about @Ian Carroll introducing his audience to NOSTR! Ben’s getting zaps on top of Ian’s zaps! We’re going to have so much fun with words, meme’s and the new cultural movement that’s growing
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It’s only a matter of time. Every day I see people screaming for solutions like Bitcoin and NOSTR. Selling the idea’s of Bitcoin is hard, but in its own time freedom sells itself

