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Grace_Too
gracetoo@nostrplebs.com
npub14509...6gx4
Ideologically motivated Bitcoin Extremist
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Grace_Too 6 days ago
image There's just nothing fancy to say man. We closed above the range. Bitcoin just ain't sellin off like all of your favourite Fin-fluencers are fearing into you. Confidence above the range will take weeks to build; it will only take a day to destroy it below the range. Stairs up, free fall down. Nothing else on earth I'd rather own, except for lead. And maybe a few wives who knew how to gunsmith. Those problems aren't getting bullish
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Grace_Too 6 days ago
absolutely wild. I had to force ChatGPT to read the totally true and unedited transcript of the DeaterBob vs @HODL debate from days of yore. I think a social indicator could be built from this debate. A kind of “Deater Gauge” that finds thirst traps from bitcoin MINOs (Maxi In Name Only). Tell tale sign is not having a NOSTR pubkey
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Grace_Too 6 days ago
We should make a new Sentiment indicator in Bitcoin and call it “The Deater Gauger” that tracks Bitcoin MINO’s (maxi in name only - you have a Twitter account but without a NOSTR public key - and pump out max thurst unsubstantiated Bitcoin engagement like Terrence here… well ya know… Szabo tweeted it so… image
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Grace_Too 1 week ago
image TACO Tuesday. Watching how price will react around the trendline. Normally rejects first touch, and often slaps down the first break out for a retest. CME has a gap to fill from the weekend, which would be a nice place for a lower high. Weekly market structure still has a lot to prove. Like Weekly candle closes about the W/CL is what we want to see. Like Fiboswanny, I'd like to see 3 candles close above that line before calling any kind of bottom. Daily candles are looking really good
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Grace_Too 1 week ago
image Every arrow is a Sunday close. I just find it interesting. The range is neutral. In a certain market my thesis is changing. I would start DCA now. Bitcoin has no counterparty risk, which is everywhere in the world. Even your government is now bad counterparty risk. I don't care why or to what ends that energy markets are being destroyed, it's happening. Now is the time, at any price
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Grace_Too 1 week ago
image Bitcoin is... Between the lines. Trump tweeted that he's going to initiate an energy disaster Tuesday night and Bitcoin popped up a little. This thing looks like a 5th wave would fit the chart puzzle perfectly... But wouldn't that have initiated after a tweet with the implications Trump just gave? Hugh Hendry is describing Bitcoin as a Shield over this last week. Did he read Softwar? I haven't listened to the whole podcast yet, but I was listening to what he dropped on Friday, and I couldn't agree more with a few points that landed with me. Alpha begins where permission ends, in his latest title Your Real Edge is Disobedience
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Grace_Too 2 weeks ago
image There are 3 regular perma bears that I love to hate. None of them know Bitcoin, 2 of them claim to be smart. 1 is completely retarded in every way. I bet they're super frustrated right now because bitcoin isn't doing what they said it ought to be. We had a small bull trend that made a lower high and we swung back into the range which is neutral territory. Something Mr Sophisticated PhD Ben Cowen can't seem to fathom. Wasn't that dude a Swifty for ADA? I can't remember and I can't be bothered to check I'm just pretty sure it's true. I don't have a lot to say except that I continue to be impressed. Bitcoin hasn't come close to the daily low close let alone close below 65K. That said, we're pumping into some resistance with bearish divergence. We closed our first monthly green candle since Sept. I'm Neutrally impressed with this consolidation range
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Grace_Too 2 weeks ago
image Just a perfect rejection off of the original bear trend. Since the upthrust to 75K it's been and orderly walk down the ladder, frustrating all sides of the market. If we see a daily close below 62.8K I could see a fast flush down to 48K. David Levenson's sub 10K predictions are retarded... i want to know what the rest of markets look like when we get there. I'm a full believer in "the Great Taking" thesis. Only place to be is Bitcoin, at any price.
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Grace_Too 2 weeks ago
Still neutral, but this isn't the price action we're looking for on the bull case. Perfect rejections at key price horizontals. Only 3 days in 2026 has price closed below 65,107.
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Grace_Too 3 weeks ago
As a side note.... I'm not up to speed on the BIP 110, people I have come to respect are on all sides of this argument and it's kinda ugly. But from a market perspective... I don't think it's bullish. I don't think if there is a hard fork all of a sudden you're going to have Bitcoin A and Bitcoin B at 100K I mean maybe? I doubt it though. The more I think of maybe it will be, and lots of people are going to sell the right version of Bitcoin too soon and lose everything. That's the most entertaining option - as Musk might say image
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Grace_Too 3 weeks ago
Neutral, but above the 4-hour trend. That matters. What looked like a head and shoulders before the aftermarket War Iran war shock has quietly morphed into what could be an inverse head and shoulders when markets opened back up. Call it what you want, that's the cost of being in the market and needing to know what you own. If the neckline holds, 74K is your measured target. Market structure is starting to build from the lower timeframes up — and the daily is finally showing me something: higher highs, higher lows. That's not nothing. Now — the cycle question nobody's asking honestly. The question isn't "is 60K the bottom?" The question is: where does the risk/reward sit right now? Here's where I land. I'm not convinced 60K was the bottom. But I also don't need to be. That's the wrong argument to win. If this is the bottom, everyone who bought under 78K is sitting on a gift. You're buying sats at prices potentially 50% off the previous high. You don't need to be the genius who called the exact low — you need to be the person who was in the zone when the risk was asymmetric. You won't know the bottom until it's well behind you. The edge isn't precision — it's being approximately right when the margin of safety is real. So what do I do with this? Stink bids. Test the waters. If you're not in yet, you're still shopping at a discount. Size accordingly, not heroically. The caveat I'd insist on: the weekly has not flipped bullish. Full stop. That's not a reason to ignore the setup — it's a reason to size for a trade, not bet the stack. The cycle turns slowly, then all at once. Respect the sequence. Stay humble about what you know. Stay honest about what you don't. The chart is giving you permission to look — not to go all in.
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Grace_Too 1 month ago
Gap to Gap When trend lines get broken, they often get revisited — not always on the same timeframe. The 12h trend line on my chart since October 28th was tested last week, almost five months later. You can't see that until you look at the lowest time frames. Here it's the 15m chart. I found how to identify these trends during the 2020 bull run. That bull move stayed above a 2d trend throughout. Every prior bear market had a weekly downtrend line established by this point — this one doesn't. That's worth noting. If we overcome the 2d it'll be because we've built the market structure to support it. That's where this bear market gets repaired — between the gaps. A daily close below the D/CL at 63,500 tells me the base has failed. This bear market is not dead. But the resiliency off the base is a good start
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Grace_Too 1 month ago
I coudn't imagine being afraid of a win win scenario, but there it is. Must be a cheeky Melanial
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Grace_Too 1 month ago
image This doesn't look like a liquidity grab to me, this looks bullish. The purple down trend was part of the trend channel I was observing that I thought we'd be stuck in. and we're currently out, we could revisit, but this is constructive price action on the 8hr. I'm seeing a case that we could end the week above 70.3k That would be step 1 in market repair. Everyone is noticing the pattern that i spoke about for over a month before anyone saw how obvious it was. Go back and look. Well I'm telling you now, that maybe it was a crowded trade. I'm seeing the market build a cause, very early stages.
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Grace_Too 1 month ago
It might be difficult to see I appologize if you're 1 of the 0 people following my charts. In 2022 we were nowhere near the price trend (for me that is the time based portion of a correction). Today we are at that trend, right now, we've rejected it once already and now we're challenging it again. I've removed a lot from my chart so you can see the candle and the terminal points of the trend line projection. We're already trading above both of the 4hr down trends I had in purple, one I erased 2 weeks ago because it was no longer relevant to us
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Grace_Too 1 month ago
image I'm not 100% sure the same pattern is playing out anymore. But I've been consistent in my analysis. For me to change my mind about the trend I need to see change in market structure. For me that is a few steps. 1. I need to see a close above the green weekly close low horizontal W/CL. 2. I want to see another candle open and close above the same horizontal. I took my short position off on Wednesday because the time factor in my trade wasn't playing out. In 2022 their was a liquidity grab in the beginning of the week before it dumped. We could be doing a liquidity grab right now, I don't know. But if the CME closes above this level, most weekends, most of the time price action does nothing. But we have some bullish patterns that could take us higher today that I'm noticing. It's not impossible that the "Bottom is in crowd" is correct. I'm starting to see the beginning of a repair, there's a lot of work to do on the weekly first
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Grace_Too 1 month ago
image Trade was initiated on Wednesday, with a take profit set for 48944K, I'll try and stick with it for as long as I can and give the trade as much room to breath as it needs. Above the QPH we set a small head and shoulders toping pattern on the 15m chart. Looks like another head and shoulder pattern is forming, but maybe I'm just seeing things. It's measured move takes price below the wick. In 2022 once a daily candle closed below the D/CL level price never looked back until Sub 20k levels
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Grace_Too 1 month ago
image A bit of a surprise to me, I was expecting a 12hr trend to be set from the failure of the bull trap, but it was set at the bear trap that initiated this current pump. It's bisecting the 4hr trends. It will be interesting to see how price interacts with this trend in the future. I've been extending all of my long term trends out to 30k. All trends must start from candle opens, then I throw them as far into the future as possible and lock them in
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Grace_Too 1 month ago
image Right now my target is the quarter pivot high. There's a lot of resistance above, and we don't have any bullish market structure. If you've been patient and not shorting breakouts like most of your friends then you're seeing opportunity. First level I'm looking at is 73.5k, my second point of interest is 78.3K