Don’t read Nik’s copium, but do read his book Layered Money Prices will trend until the coin is dead, and only then will it rise again - MVRV Z’ed score 4

No fluff analysis is a tougher sell than max bull or bear. We’re still the same range as last week, burden of proof is on the bulls. This is re-distribution until proven otherwise. Weekly closes over 70k daily closes over 79k promotes bullish structure. I’m a buyer when the MVRV Z score reaches 4, currently it’s >13

Bitcoin was wacked around within the range this week. The financial media served up the usual buffet — tariffs, sentiment, macro. None of it mattered. Because the price wasn't the story. Structure is the story. Weekly close made the ceiling. Daily low made the floor. Between those two levels, the most important thing in markets is happening — absolutely nothing. And if that bores you, you haven't been doing this long enough. Here's what consolidation actually is. It's the phase that matters most and pays the least attention to your timeline. This is the compression phase. The part nobody wants to talk about because there's nothing to sell you. There's a concept in game theory called the winner's curse. It comes from oil lease auctions in the 1950s. The company that won the bid was, by definition, the one that overpaid the most. They celebrated the loudest. They were also the most wrong. Bitcoin Maxi's has been running this auction for three months. Buy the dip. How many times and counting? Each one celebrated. Each one underwater. The buy signal isn't analysis anymore — it's identity. You're not buying because the chart tells you to. You're buying because not buying means you're not one of us. That's not a thesis. That's a loyalty test. Here's the part nobody will say out loud. The trend is down. Not "correcting." Not "shaking out weak hands." Down. The structure has not bottomed. The MVRV broke the bull market floor. Trend is broken. You are buying inside a range that is inside a downtrend that has not completed. Read that again. Every dip buy is one less bullet in the clip. And you're firing them into a range that doesn't care. Your cost basis is averaging into the middle of nowhere. The real accumulation zone isn't here. It's below here. Maybe significantly below here. And when it arrives — when the channels converge, when the structure actually bottoms, when the MVRV prints a number that makes you physically sick — you'll be tapped out. Fully allocated at higher prices. Telling yourself it's fine because your "time horizon is long." You know who has a long time horizon? The guy with dry powder in May. The guy who watched you buy the dip Ninety Nine times and waited. That guy isn't early. He's solvent. Conviction without structure is just stubbornness with a marketing budget. The bottom will come. It always does. But it doesn't come for the loyal. It comes for the patient. And right now, the most contrarian thing you can do in Bitcoin is build

Weekend Tape Analysis Clean liquidity grab: wick above last night's range, failing the 1H uptrend on the retest, then selling off. Price now trading inside the anticipated consolidation range between Sunday's weekly close low and Thursday's daily low. Currently under 15m bearish trend. Setup: watching for retests of the 30m and 2h bear trends. Outlook: several weeks of sideways consolidation while Bitfluencers on Bitcoin Today lament their devs and liquidate airplanes for margin.

Waiting for Tonight's Close The primary move appears complete—now tracking consolidation structure. Potential scenario: dead cat bounce to the W/Cl resistance level. Focus: does tonight's close establish a consolidation range bounded by Thursday's close (lower) and tonight's close (upper)? Market structure: Bears control all major trends. Bulls operating within a minor retracement trend above the 15m timeframe.

4H Bear Trend Channels & Bottom Timing The 4H bear trends are extending through early May to July—the same window as the incoming Chairman transition. Changing these to purple for visual distinction: they're bearish trends but structured as channels, which warrants separate tracking. This channel pattern may be telegraphing bottom timing. Expectation: once price crosses above the 12H trend, the market will have established a bottom and begun structural repair of the bear market damage. MVRV has broken the bull market support floor. Our plan is to start buying agnostically when the MVRV-z score closes below 4. Once a week every week until the score is over 13 again. Price can still drop another 50% before the MVRV-Z score closes at 2.6

2022 vs Current Bear Market Structure In 2022, price broke the weekly uptrend followed by weekly structure. That week delivered a flush similar to the recent action—setting a daily low on Thursday before rallying into the weekly close. The MVRV-Z score also broke below the bull market "floor" during this period. Today's weekly low now sits 10% overhead. Key question: does tonight's close establish the upper bound for the next consolidation range? The range sizes are comparable. The current bear market is replicating 2022's structure with striking precision. Likely explanation: absent retail participation, it's the same institutional participants executing similar playbooks. Epstein did not "unalive" your portfolio - keeping your keys with Coinbase did

MEMO TO: Investors FROM: [Market Breath and the Pause That Matters] RE: Understanding Where We Stand There's a rhythm to markets that's easy to forget in the moment but obvious in hindsight. Markets don't move in straight lines—they breathe. A crash happens, panic selling exhausts itself, and then... nothing. Or rather, not nothing: consolidation, hesitation, the market catching its breath before deciding what comes next. We saw this in 2022, and we may be seeing it again now. The 2022 Parallel In 2022, Bitcoin broke its weekly bull market trend and market structure in a violent move that felt like capitulation. The MVRV Z-Score tagged 8.7—a level that represented significant distress but not quite the full capitulation we'd see months later. What followed wasn't an immediate plunge to the lows. Instead, the market went sideways for four weeks. Not up, not materially down—just... sideways. Breathing. This morning, the MVRV sits at 9.4. Practically the same level. The crash of February 5th—which dropped MVRV by 4.86 in a single day, has left us in remarkably similar territory to where 2022's initial breakdown paused. The question isn't whether this is a coincidence. Markets don't care about coincidences. The question is: what does this positioning tell us about what might happen next? The Context That Matters Here's what makes this moment interesting: while Bitcoin has crashed, other major equity indices remain near their local highs. Everyone's waiting for the other shoe to drop. This isn't a synchronized selloff—not yet. Bitcoin moved first, hard and fast. The rest of the market is still deciding. This asymmetry matters. If major indices follow Bitcoin lower, the cascade could be severe. If they hold, Bitcoin's decline might be more contained, a crypto-specific correction rather than a systemic unwind. We don't know which will happen, but the gap between Bitcoin's crash and traditional markets' stability is worth watching closely. The Mechanics of a Bounce Can Bitcoin catch its breath here? Technically, yes. Structurally, it's possible. In 2022, after tagging similar MVRV levels, Bitcoin managed a 20% bounce that retested the broken market structure before eventually continuing lower. That kind of move isn't impossible now—though it's worth noting that 20% from current levels would take us to roughly $78,000, all the way back to the weekly close low that just broke. That's asking a lot. The Quarterly Pivot High sits at $71,000—closer, more realistic, but still a substantial bounce from $65,000. Technical levels matter not because they're magic lines on a chart, but because traders watch them, and when enough traders watch the same levels, those levels influence behavior. The downtrend line—wherever it sits when price reaches it—represents the first real test of whether this is a pause or a reversal. First touch of a broken trendline after a crash is typically resistance. That's where conviction gets tested. If buyers can't break that trend, the message is clear: the breath is temporary, the decline isn't finished. Time and Trend Markets move in price and time, and right now, time matters as much as price. The 4h down trend suggests a consolidation period, perhaps up to four weeks. That's not a prediction—it's an observation. The MVRV at 9.4 is still 6.8 points above the historical capitulation target of 2.6. We're closer to the end than the beginning, but we're not at the end. For those managing risk, this suggests: Any bounce to resistance (the downtrend, $71k, $78k) is likely a selling opportunity, not a buying signal The next two to four weeks matter for understanding whether major indices will confirm Bitcoin's weakness True capitulation likely still lies ahead, not behind us The violent crash might have exhausted immediate selling pressure but didn't resolve the structural issues The Broader Pattern What we're watching unfold is the maturation paradox I've written about before. As Bitcoin grows, its normal corrections get better-supported (rising floors), but its true bear markets get worse (widening gap to capitulation). The floor rose from 9.18 MVRV in 2016 to 13.48 in 2020 to 19.59 now. But capitulation stays around 2.6 MVRV—meaning the fall gets longer and more painful each cycle. We broke the floor on January 31st. We're now in that long fall. The February 5th crash accelerated the timeline but didn't complete it. Markets rarely go straight down, even in bear markets. They breathe. They consolidate. They give you time to think, to hope, to make mistakes. This consolidation—if that's what we're in—is that breath. It's not safety. It's just time to prepare for what's likely still coming. A Final Thought Jesse Livermore used to say that "the big money was not in the individual fluctuations but in the main movements." Right now, we're in a fluctuation within a larger movement. The larger movement is a progression from floor (19.59 MVRV) to capitulation (likely 2.6 MVRV). That progression is 60% complete. The question for the next few weeks isn't whether Bitcoin will bounce—it probably will, at least modestly. The question is whether that bounce changes the larger pattern or simply provides an opportunity to position for what comes next. Based on historical precedent, I know which way I'd bet. But I also know that markets have a way of surprising us when consensus becomes too strong. The 2022 analog is useful, but it's not a script. We wait, we watch, and we respect the possibility that this time might be different, even as we position for the probability that it won't be. Market breath. Don't mistake that for recovery. Patience will be rewarded, accumulate more dry powder, so you'll be able to swap it for maximum sats - HODL your keys, verify your transactions - Stay focused for the time being, let everyone else argue about bottoms. We aren't even close to breaching the trend

We are driving down the 30min trend hard. I have never seen gay'er fud in my life. If this is Kim Dot Comm FUDDED price action I'm disappointed in the market participants. You're retarded. How's your LTV by the way.

Analysis of Bitcoin's Maturation Paradox RE: When Growing Up Means Falling Harder I've been thinking about the nature of maturation in markets, and specifically what happens when an asset class "grows up." Conventional wisdom suggests that as markets mature—more participants, deeper liquidity, institutional adoption—volatility should decline and corrections should become less severe. But what if the opposite is true? What if maturation creates the conditions for increasingly violent drawdowns, even as the asset becomes more widely accepted? Bitcoin's on-chain data offers an unusual lens into this question. Unlike traditional markets where we infer sentiment from price, blockchain analysis gives us something closer to ground truth: we can see what holders actually paid for their Bitcoin and measure whether they're sitting on gains or losses. The metric that captures this is MVRV Z-Score—essentially, how far market cap has deviated from the aggregate cost basis of all holders. The Pattern That Emerges When you study Bitcoin's halving cycles, a consistent pattern emerges. During bull markets, corrections find support at what I'll call a "floor level"—a specific MVRV range where buyers consistently step in. This floor has risen dramatically: 2016 Cycle: 9.18 MVRV 2020 Cycle: 13.48 MVRV (+47%) 2024 Cycle: 19.59 MVRV (+45%) This makes intuitive sense. As more capital enters at higher prices, the average cost basis rises. What constituted a "deep correction" in 2017 would barely register as a pullback in 2025. The floor is rising because Bitcoin is maturing. But here's what's interesting: when these floors eventually break and true bear markets arrive, the bottom—what I'll call "capitulation"—stays remarkably consistent: 2016 Cycle: 2.59 MVRV (average of 20 worst days) 2020 Cycle: 2.69 MVRV (+4%) An MVRV of ~2.6 appears to represent maximum pain—the point where the average holder is sitting on such severe unrealized losses that capitulation selling overwhelms all other considerations. This threshold doesn't rise with maturity. It's a psychological constant. The Widening Gap Now here's where it gets uncomfortable. If floors keep rising but capitulation stays flat, the gap between them must widen. And indeed: 2016: 6.59 MVRV point drop (floor to capitulation) 2020: 10.79 MVRV point drop (+64%) In percentage terms, the drawdowns are worsening: 2016: -46.6% from floor to capitulation 2020: -55.1% 2024: Projected -63.5% if pattern holds So we have a paradox: Bitcoin is maturing (higher floors, more institutional participation, regulatory clarity), yet bear markets are becoming more severe, not less. The very process of maturation—bringing in more capital at higher prices—sets the stage for worse crashes. Time Compounds the Pain There's a second dimension to consider: duration. The journey from floor break to capitulation is lengthening: 2016: 244 days (8 months) 2020: 508 days (17 months) The time essentially doubled. This matters because drawdown severity × duration = total pain experienced by holders. A 50% drop over 8 months is psychologically different from a 55% drop over 17 months. The latter grinds away conviction, exhausts capital, and shakes out even patient hands. Where We Stand On January 31, 2026, Bitcoin's MVRV broke decisively below the established floor of 19.59, currently trading around 15.58. November's dip to 17.49 proved to be just a correction—it recovered quickly. This feels different. There's no bounce, no stabilization. The pattern suggests we're at the beginning of the capitulation process, not the end. If historical patterns hold: Target MVRV: ~2.7 (capitulation level) Remaining decline: ~13 MVRV points Timeframe: 8-17 months (September 2026 to June 2027) Price target: Roughly -63% from the floor level What This Means I want to be clear about what I'm not saying. I'm not predicting Bitcoin will hit specific price levels or that the pattern must repeat. Markets don't follow scripts. Institutional buying could overwhelm the historical pattern. New market structure could change everything. What I am saying is this: the data suggests that Bitcoin's maturation process creates asymmetric risk. Bull market corrections are better-supported (rising floors), but true bear markets are worse (widening gap to capitulation). This is counterintuitive but consistent with what we see. For long-term holders, this has implications: Mature markets haven't eliminated severe drawdowns; they may intensify them The time to capitulation appears to be increasing, not decreasing What looks like "a correction" early on may be the start of something worse Risk management matters more, not less, as assets mature The Broader Lesson There's something here about the nature of growth and risk that extends beyond Bitcoin. When an asset matures and attracts more capital at higher prices, you're not reducing volatility—you're compressing it. The periods of calm get longer. The drops, when they come, get deeper. More participants at higher cost bases don't stabilize markets; they raise the stakes. Jesse Livermore understood this a century ago: "The market will do everything in its power to prove the majority wrong." As more people accept Bitcoin at higher prices, the conditions for a severe bear market improve, not worsen. The floor rises, the fall lengthens, and the crash deepens. I don't know if this cycle will follow the pattern. Markets have surprised me before and will again. What I do know is that understanding the pattern—the widening gap between what's normal and what's possible—is essential for navigating what comes next. Maturation doesn't mean safety. Sometimes it just means falling from higher up. I can't accept that bitcoin will suffer a less severe bear market just because the bull market did not live up to expectation. I fully expect a price recovery into the next halving, the 4 year cycle is far from dead. Good luck out there, hold your own keys, verify your transactions, and get your fiat stack at the ready - there will be blood

Price hitting 31K. This is brand new to me and I can't unsee it. I mean I feel no pain so far, and I feel left out. Well this chart makes me feel gross. It's a nice resistance to flip into support. People will say bitcoin is dead, what gives up almost 100K in nominal value... I love it... This is a Bitcoin Maxi kind of capitulation. MVRV score today is 16, deep value is in the green, everyone is selling at a loss. MVRV says deep value scores between a score of 2 and 7. 31,000k bitcoin is just a subjective target because it looks like previous resistance that was never re-tested. In terms of % drop it would be barely less than the previous bear market - Gary Cardone ain't ready for this mang!

I noticed last year that the Bull market had a problem late last year, and that it was an ugly looking head and shoulders, but the divergence in momentum solidified it for me. The target makes sense around 65K as a previous area of resistance, but man I like that 58K gang just because Denis' meme's are awesome. This is not my primary tool of finding what might be a bottom, it's just set my expectations from the bull market and 10/10 specifically. Q/PH means quarter candle pivot high

everything that Epstein touched is worthless, means that his victims are too. And that’s just not true

Higher time frame momentum is nuked. 10% days are rare, But I still wouldn't be catching knives here. 71K looks inevitable under so much bearish trend on many time frames. I'd fad the gap if price can make it back. The AI Agent story that's coming out this week will be the reason you'll want to buy blood at the bottom. Agents will end the 4 year cycle, until then I think this bear market has some funds to serve up on a platter of silver. The LLM agents are telling me that KindlyMD and Semler Scientific are on the verge of being margin called. The tide is receding

Price is under trend, and violating weekly structure if price closes below 78,379$ in 5 hours. Not too far from a 3 month pivot high (71,320) where I would think there's a lot of support. 2026 is starting to look different that 2022.

horizontal points of interest I'll be keeping my eye on. Watching the close on the weekly candle tonight to see if it makes a new structural low. Looking to see how price action follows through. In 2022 when we reached this area is was much the same price when side ways for a couple of weeks in a 10% range

One last chart for a bit. With gold and silver doing interesting things. This cycle's trends while it rhymes, is just different. In a more face ripping way. I thought 2022 was more face ripping than 2018.

NOSTR is where the Bitcoin Chads are at. Maybe you're selling premium, maybe you're taking loans. Maybe you're just earning bitcoin and hate everyone for not being as smart as you. I like chart art. My art says that if you're taking loans right now. I hope you can maintain your LTV for the next 2 quarters. Mike Alfred's 300K call is early

Market structure is the key to watching changes. Bitcoin broke weekly and now daily market structure. Add momentum and trend being in line with that change of structure is why I think we're in our next swing.

Chart is becoming a mess and I'm going to remove some time trends from lower time frames. I thought the bullish retracement would have provided a higher time frame down trend (required a more bullish retracement). That didn't happen. Rather price closed at a new weekly low. closed under the weekly trend for the first time in 3 years, retested and sold off. I extend these trends out as far as I can. Time wise that's where price could be by May of this year if the trend remains intact. In 2022 the 2nd leg down shared the same trend on the 12 and 4hr. This time the highest time frame I have is 4h - I've been eying the same areas of interest as Peter Brandt since the end of October. I am not calling a bottom from here. I'll call a bottom when we're at a bottom. I wish I started this on NOSTR months ago, but I've decided that I'm here now. I don't have to call turns, I already said market structure didn't support the bullish case. I'm here because i plan on taking loans using HODL HODL if it's useful and makes sense. Have you ever tried it? I played with it a few years back. The platform works as advertised, just a very limited hang out, not a lot of choice there. I think it's pretty cool, but you take on stable coin risk