Peter du Toit's avatar
Peter du Toit
peterdutoit@peterdutoit.com
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I speak about climate futures, mitigation and adaptation in the face of the climate crisis. 🇿🇦
It’s now becoming pretty clear that many places are going to experience some big changes as the climate shifts in response to the continued heating. Finding the risk profile of the place you live/work is a wise move. Nothing beats being prepared vs being caught off guard. For example, to some leadership teams we are suggesting seriously using the pandemic experience to become location independent if at all possible. This is a great business continuity strategy as physical environments become more unstable.
Images are now reaching us from Mozambique & Malawi where #CycloneFreddy has damaged a lot of infrastructure and caused flash floods and landslides, the death toll in both countries will continue to rise as communications are restored 😢 As we continue to heat these storms become more intense and drop insane amounts of water.
#CycloneFreddy is still a tropical cyclone 15 hours after making landfall with sustained wind speeds of 150km/h Feel for all the people in the path of this. image
NOAA released their March 2023 El Niño forecast. The highlights from this are that the La Niña has officially ended and we are now headed into ENSO-neutral conditions with early signs of the El Niño forming A-M-J. They do say the following: “ However, it is possible that strong warming near South America may portend a more rapid evolution toward El Niño and will be closely monitored.” Full bulletin here: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf The reason we are watching the development of the El Niño closely are the projections from many scientists on the impact of this event. Eg Hansen et al: “Even a little futz of an El Nino – like the tropical warming in 2018-19, which barely qualified as an El Nino – should be sufficient for record global temperature. A classical, strong El Nino in 2023-24 could push global temperature to about +1.5°C relative to the 1880-1920 mean, which is our estimate of preindustrial temperature.”
What you are looking at here is the 2m temperature anomaly projected for parts of China tomorrow March 9th. Of course this has alarm bells ringing as a result of the record breaking 74-day heatwave experienced in China in August of last year. China is the world second largest economy and the events of last summer was a warning shot across the bow. (You can read more about this here. Supply chain disruption is going to be one of the issues we have to contend with as we continue to heat. image