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NEW: The Global Risk Matrix shows continued regime improvement with the weighted Z-score advancing from -0.42 to +0.12, remaining in "Recovery" territory but now at the threshold of transitioning into "Risk-On". The critical shift here is the broadening of risk appetite across multiple dimensions: M2 Global Money Supply strengthened significantly to +1.6 (the highest reading in the entire matrix), China Liquidity Proxy flipped positive to +0.86, and the S&P500 surged to +1.19, confirming that equity risk appetite is now driving the macro regime toward full risk-on conditions. High Yield Bonds increased to +1.18, maintaining elevated credit market confidence and reinforcing the expansion narrative. However, the structural divergence with traditional safe havens has only partially compressed with Gold at -1.64 inverted continues to significantly outperform BTC on a relative basis, while Treasury Bonds at -1.06 inverted remain defensively bid despite the improving risk environment. The critical inflection is that USDT Dominance improved from -1.71 to -1.24, and the DXY weakened from -0.85 to -0.21 inverted, suggesting capital is beginning to rotate out of defensive dollar positioning, though not yet aggressively enough to trigger full risk asset acceleration. VIX at +1.15 inverted indicates complacency is building in traditional markets. TL;DR: The matrix sits on the edge of a regime shift. If liquidity expansion continues or the Fed signals dovish policy, the +0.12 weighted average could easily cross into "Risk-On" territory, potentially triggering violent rotation into high-beta crypto as late-cycle capital chases leverage. Until that threshold is definitively breached, the recovery remains fragile and directional conviction stays measured. #Economy #Finance #Markets #Bitcoin #Crypto #DebtCrisis #USDebt #GlobalEconomy #StockMarket #fmi #fed #cme #bitcoin #fiat #btc

#Economy #Finance #Markets #Bitcoin #Crypto #Blockchain #DebtCrisis #USDebt #GlobalEconomy #StockMarket #fmi #fed #cme #bitcoin #fiat #btc

Yields are starting to break out. This not good. This very bad. #Economy #Finance #Markets #Bitcoin #Crypto #Blockchain #DebtCrisis #USDebt #GlobalEconomy #StockMarket #fmi #fed #cme #bitcoin #fiat #btc

Dear Friends, be ready for mindless printing coming from the USA. 1. For the last five years, the majority of Treasury issuance has been of low duration, 1 yr, 2 yr and 5 yr. 2. It means that this treasury gets mature in 1 or 2 or maximum 5 years. 3. Maturity means that you have raise money again from the market. 4. The long-end of treasury market 10yr bond and 30 yr bond are having higher rates. 5. If long-duration bond auction fails, it is a bad sign of credit rating of the USA. 6. To avoid public embarrassment, the alternative is short duration issuance. 7. But the trade-off is that its maturity period is very short. 8. It means that you have raise money again to pay back the old debt. 9. It is like using one credit card to pay back the other credit card. 10. In the last five years, this ping-pong game has reached a dead-end but debt has only increased during this period. 11. There are only two ways to managed this. 12. Reckless printing of money or repricing of gold to a minimum range of $15000-$20000 per ounce. 13. In both cases, it means asset inflation. 14. In both cases, bond prices will crash. 15. America is bleeding itself to death. 16. Now, what happens to other countries? 17. Either they have to de-dollarize their economy which is extremely difficult. 18. Or they have to move to gold standard or gold warrant-backed trading regime. 19. In both cases, America will not let them choose either of these two options. 20. It means either death of weaker currencies or full capitulation in front of dollar imperialism. 21. In short, we are moving towards death of money as we know it today. 22. We, as humanity, will have to rediscover money with better definitions of money. 23. Better definitions of money means better institutions of money which means blockchain powered monetary regimes. 24. Those who will use blockchain to maintain public trust and fair purchasing power will eventually be the winners. Buy Bitcoin

This is the Fed’s polite way of saying, “There’s a lot more leverage under the hood than people realize.” What stands out is how fast the prime brokerage and repo lines have climbed over the last few years. Prime broker financing tells you equity books are running bigger and more levered. Repo financing tells you fixed income trades, especially Treasury arbitrage have ballooned. Put together, it shows a market leaning heavily on borrowed money at a time when both volatility and issuance have been rising. And here’s the part that matters: this kind of leverage works beautifully when everything is calm. It juices returns, smooths spreads, and makes the whole system look more liquid than it really is. But it cuts the other way when conditions shift. If funding tightens, haircuts rise, or volatility jumps, these same trades unwind quickly…not because sentiment changes, but because margin calls force them to. So the chart is a reminder of how modern markets function…hedge funds provide liquidity, but they also borrow a lot to do it. As long as financing stays easy, this structure holds. When it wobbles, this is exactly where cracks tend to show up first.

US Treasuries / 2-year yield We’ve already had cuts this year and even more are priced in through the end of 2026. The December cut probability is sitting around 86.4%, and the market is pricing a 78.9% chance of 3+ cuts by late 2026. And yet the 2-year yield remains stuck at a stubborn 3.50%, the same level we saw at the lows back in September 2024. Now, we’ll certainly see it much lower if USD liquidity issues really take hold, but that’s still uncertain. What is certain is the massive wave of debt rolling over in 2026. My view is that in case of serious trouble, we’ll get a radical, coordinated response from both the Fed and the government, all the governments really. There’s very little tolerance for pain right now in developed economies.

The Calm Before the Credit Cycle Turns On the surface, spreads this tight look like a clean endorsement of corporate balance sheets. Investors are basically saying, “We’re not worried, these companies look fine.” And if you only looked at the spread chart, you might think the credit market is sitting in a sweet spot with no real stress in sight. But once you layer in what’s happening across the Treasury curve, the corporate curve, the refinancing schedule ahead, and the growing risk of unemployment drifting higher, the picture becomes a lot less simple. The Curve Is Whispering a Different Story Treasury data through 2025 makes the shift pretty clear. The front end has eased a lot, 6 month bills that were above 5% last year are now sitting closer to 3.8–4.0%. You can see it right in the daily Treasury data. But the long end hasn’t followed them down. 10 year yields are still hovering a little above 4%, and the 30 year is hanging out closer to 4.7%. It’s a curve that’s no longer inverted, but it’s not easing across the board either, it’s tilting. Corporate yields show the same pattern, just amplified. August 2025 corporate spot rates tell the story cleanly: short dated corporate yields have fallen almost a full percentage point from last year, but long dated yields have gone the other direction. 30 year corporates are now near 6%, and anything past that like the 80, 90, 100 year marks sits comfortably above 6.2%. So even as spreads grind tighter, the all in cost of long term borrowing has gotten more expensive, not less. That’s the part of the story spreads alone don’t tell you: the credit premium is tiny, but the term premium isn’t going anywhere. The Maturity Wall And Why Unemployment Matters Now place all of that next to the refinancing calendar. Between the end of 2025 and the end of 2026, companies have nearly $2 trillion in debt to roll, roughly a 1 trillion of it in investment grade alone, with high yield and CRE not far behind. And yes, they can refinance, the demand is there, which is exactly why spreads are this tight but they’re refinancing into a curve where the cheap money is at the front and the expensive money sits out where they’d normally issue. And this is where rising unemployment becomes a real risk. If job losses begin to drift higher, even gradually, it feeds into slower demand, weaker revenue, and thinner margins. Companies don’t fall into distress overnight, but the earnings cushion that makes refinancing easy begins to erode. Credit spreads don’t stay serene when labor softens, they finally start paying attention. Tight spreads don’t erase the cost of debt. They just make today’s deals look painless. My Read on the Whole Picture To me, this feels like one of those moments where the market’s calm is real, but it’s also fragile. Investment grade credit looks solid in the near term; balance sheets have breathing room, and refinancing isn’t a crisis. But the pricing underneath it, the shape of the curve, the higher long end cost of capital, the mountain of maturities ahead, and the early signs of labor softening doesn’t look like early cycle confidence. It looks more like late cycle complacency. So yes, companies will likely get through this window. But investors buying at these levels aren’t being paid much if something shifts. Most of the yield today isn’t about credit risk at all, it’s about duration and supply. And when growth slows more visibly, spreads don’t have to blow out for people to feel it. They just have to move from ultra tight back to something normal. That’s the part the spread chart leaves out and it’s the part that matters most.

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