New lows coming for this. 0.010 - 0.015 inbound soon. Tradfi is a shitcoin @Saifedean Ammous

Taleb is back on the nice list for this one lol

I've done some basic modelling on MSTR and how a perpetual debt+equity strategy would impact share price and value relative to BTC It's kind of crazy actually -- BTC/Share and the Share Price to BTC price ratio is accretive all the way out the curve. And there seems to be the reflexive component that performance increases with mNAV and value accrues even with declining mNAV due to the fact that the entire stack gets marked up faster than they can issue new debt or equity. I'd have to spend a lot more time modelling but there doesn't appear to be a static equilibrium until a) MSTR owns all the Bitcoin and is a $2 Quadrillion Market Cap b) MSTR goes to $0 It also validates his current approach -- get as big of a head start as possible and then buy regularly in order to reduce volatility risk. And since the dollars being generated to add to his stack are often freshly created by some bank credit desk, this is a true speculative attack. If the US government or other institutions wish to act, they probably have about 4-8 years before this playbook has literally cornered the market, in which case the only risk becomes forced liquidation or seizure. I'm curious what Saylor has up his sleave to guard against seizure risk. He could be unwittingly be building the USG's reserve of 20% of BTC supply.

All things considered, $450-$600k by EOY 2025 would be in line with the 2020-2021 cycle for price action. If we compare to 2016-2017 cycle, which was indeed a bigger step function for Bitcoin adoption and macro narrative, the cone of uncertainty blows out to $550k - $1.75M. Is 2025 a step function? If nation states plant their flag, then yes, it probably is. Regardless, $500k is a decent base case. Don't listen to tradfi dipshits and sell at $200-$250k. The S&P was -44% against BTC in 2024. There's a decent chance it will be negative against the DOLLAR in 2025. Real estate is a house of cards and maintenance costs are hyperinflating. There's no alternative for storing wealth.

@ODELL get a load of this shit

@HODL thinks we clear 500k @ODELL humbly implied 2m is in play Dipshit tradfi bros and chart bois calling for $220-$250k @Jeff Booth comments when modeled out suggest $3–$4m @Samson Mow sticks with clean $1m call So weighted average call is like $1.3m BTC this cycle. Here for it

Did you BTFD anon?

Bitcoin has a way of chewing up egos and personalities. Ver was first to fall. Minor characters like Breedlove have become heavily diluted. Brian Armstrong was corrupted by the establishment and shitcoiners. SBF, Zhu -- humbled and jailed. Saylor seems to have the wisdom and engineering discipline to not get rekt but he's one pen stroke from an authoritarian away from ruin. I genuinely think that @Jeff Booth and others with his attitude and wisdom will go the distance. No one knows what's actually coming and a major fear is that rapid price appreciation will corrupt or dilute more individual contributors in this space.

@Marty Bent High signal from Collum

GM THE S&P WAS 385 IN 1992

This is happening one way or the other

Ok I think we can all admit that @ODELL was right Again