xmas vibes. gm nostr! ❄️🌲

Alla salute!

btc is about to enter a golden 2 year run. i’ve never been this bullish on bitcoin. signs are everywhere. the more the price gets compressed, the bigger the breakout will be.

“Bitcoin is taking excess energy and storing it as a new currency. You can take it wherever you’d like, transporting it everywhere.”

i don’t know if there’s a single product in the software world worse than the google cloud console.

become an entrepreneur before ai replaces your job with zeros and ones. happy friday!

a very simple theory yet it cuts deeper than most people realize. bitcoin’s outcome’s binary. either it trends toward infinity or it collapses to zero. most likely it won’t go to zero and it won’t ever be replaced because any successor would inherit a fatal flaw the moment it’s born. if you can replace money once, you can replace it again, and that destroys all trust, so it’s not about a better tech. hal articulated this very nicely. whats unique about bitcoin is that it has solved that final coordination problem which is the biggest challenge of getting the entire world to agree on a single digital monetary standard that no one can change, no one can remake, and no one can reset. the path is basically one direction.

4 yr cycle ppl who sold at 110k thinking they’ll scoop back in at 30k are gonna hate 2026.

$6 to $7k moves in a day became normal for bitcoin. remember this was the whole btc price like 5 yrs ago. give it a few years and that same move will happen every half hour.

traditionalists will resist ai the same way the amish resist modern tech but denial won’t help.

you’ll hear many bitcoin skeptics using “ai is deflationary and thats bad for bitcoin” argument. partly true, so prepare your answers.

ai is deflationary. very soon probably within the next 5-6 yrs, the money supply to debt ratio vs business productivity will completely flip meaning productivity output will grow far faster than the expansion of money or debt. in that environment bitcoin absorbs productivity surplus and can be the best vehicle to store the excess value created.

incredible hate on mstr lately. i get the fiat npcs hating because they think they missed the train and instead of admitting their ignorance and course-correcting, they just double down. but bitcoiners? it’s a company laser-focused on stacking as much bitcoin as possible. they’re literally inventing new tools like digital credit and perfs to make it happen. why the hate? what happened to “bitcoin for everyone”? why try to take down a guy who’s doing what’s best for his company and his shareholders? the only real issue saylor has is not self-custody yet, but that’ll too happen at some point. if you want million a coin or want to retire your family on bitcoin, start embracing the good people actually pushing wall st toward bitcoin.

there was no real reason for this dump, just some mms deleveraging after the oct 10th mess. why it happened? no one seems to know and no one wants to talk about it. maybe someone big needed to build a large position and the market gods made it happen by shaking out retail.

Happy saturday fam! Enjoy thanksgiving and the whole holiday season. 🧡🤙

the relationship between bitcoin’s production cost and price floor is one of the most underrated dynamics. when you look at the data, there’s a clear correlation. every time mining difficulty doubles, the estimated production cost increases by roughly 33%. this isn’t random, it’s basic economics playing out in real time. think about it like any other commodity. oil, gold, copper, etc… they all have production costs that act as gravitational floors. when price drops below cost of production, miners shut down, supply contracts, and the price finds equilibrium. bitcoin works the same way. the hash price (revenue per terahash) essentially sets a baseline. miners can’t operate at a loss indefinitely. they capitulate, difficulty adjusts down, and suddenly the remaining miners are profitable again. and in contrast, when price rises on global liquidity or other factors, more miners come online, supply expands and the system naturally absorbs the new demand. this creates a natural support level what makes bitcoin unique. you can literally watch the difficulty adjustments every two weeks and can calculate the approx. cost per coin based on electricity rates and hardware efficiency. the game theory is right there in the open. historically bitcoin has never traded below production cost for extended periods. it might wick below during capitulation events but it doesn’t stay there. the miners won’t let it. so when you see difficulty climbing and hash price compressing, you’re watching the network reinforce its own value floor in real time. each difficulty adjustment is the market discovering what bitcoin is actually worth to produce and that becomes what it’s worth to hold.

bitcoin outgrew the retail 4 year cycle story. it now acts as a global liquidity valve that only happened to line up with a 4 yr rhythm in the last three halvings. that pattern’s gone. from now on it sniffs out liquidity first and reacts in both directions. as new coin production keeps shrinking in the coming yrs, that barometer only gets sharper at measuring global liquidity.