being a bitcoin hodlr is one of the hardest things. watching your money get destroyed 80% again and again, eight times in ten years and still having the conviction to sit there calmly knowing that long term you’ll outperform every asset that exists.

quantum threat to bitcoin is minimum 30 yrs away. and this problem isn’t unique to bitcoin. the entire world runs on the same cryptographic primitives. bitcoin will be the first network to fix quantum vulnerabilities long before they become a real threat.

software ate the world for the past 40 yrs and now that era is about to end. there won’t really be a thing called saas anymore. not mid or large software companies either. just frontier models generating software on demand and the companies that own them..

ai will hire humans to do physical tasks and pay them in bitcoin. as hopeful and as dystopian as it gets.

the sophistication of hacking attacks on personal and corporate computers is accelerating so fast and it’s getting insanely creative. its red code alert in many large corporations. assuming your devices are safe is delusional. air gapped cold storage is absolutely the only defense you’ve got to protect your life savings. quantum is fud but this is real.

now explain again the difference between leverage trading and taking out a fiat loan using bitcoin as collateral at a 50% ltv. fuckers will tell you it’s an amazing innovation until a 50% drawdown completely wipes your coins.

11.22.63 on Netflix might be one of the best time travel tv shows out there. it came out in 2016 and i have no idea how i missed it until now. 10/10

by the end of 2030 ai will achieve a level of intelligence greater than the combined intelligence ever created by the entire human race. current models are incredibly premature compared to what we’ll have in just 5 years. 1) gpt4 to claude to gemini happened in like 18 months. we went from kinda useful to holy shit in like less time than it takes to get a driver’s license renewed. 2) moore’s law is dead but something weirder replaced it. algorithmic efficiency is doubling every 8 to 10 months. same compute, dramatically smarter models. we’re not just scaling. we’re discovering new architectures. 3) intelligence isn’t additive. it’s multiplicative. 1 einstein > 10k avg physicists. ai doesnt just add human equivalent minds. it creates something qualitatively different. 4) the entire sum of human knowledge. every book, paper, conversation, discovery. took 300k yrs to accumulate. an agi system will be able to process and synthesize all of it in hrs. then build on top of it. 5) we measure human intelligence in individual lifetimes. 80 yrs max of learning per person. ai systems run 24/7 don’t forget, dont get tired, dont die. a single year of ai development = centuries of equivalent human cognitive work. 6) current llms are like calculators in 1970. useful but obviously primitive. we’re still figuring out basic architecture. attention mechanisms are barely 7 yrs old. transformers might be our vacuum tubes. 7) the scariest and also the most exciting part? we don’t fully understand why these things work as well as they do. emergence keeps surprising us. capabilities appear that werent trained for. we’re building minds we can’t fully explain. 8) biological intelligence took 4b+ yrs of evolution. digital intelligence is iterating on timescales of months. evolution is a drunk walk through possibility space. 9) by 2030 we wont just have smarter chatbots. we’ll have systems that can do novel science prove new theorems design their own successors. the last human designed ai might already exist.

ok i’ll bite. nostr feels absolutely dead. it’s not just me. a lot of accounts i try to keep up with are constantly posting and getting almost no engagement. maybe it's time to be honest and actually think about whats going wrong instead of trying to create fake hype. there i said it.

💯