Bitcoin chart of the day.
Most coins are in profit. Most recorded capital is not.
At Price of 81.6k, 68.4% of Bitcoin supply is above its recorded cost. But weight those same coins by their USD value at UTXO creation, rather than treating each BTC equally, and only 43.1% of realized capital belongs to profitable outputs.
That is a 25.3 percentage point gap. Old coins with low recorded costs can lift the supply figure without carrying much weight in the capital figure. These are two views of unspent coins, not a count of investors or a measure of current market capitalization.
The chart puts this week's setback in the year's context. Capital profit share was 17.9% on 1 Aug and briefly reached 58.3% on 4 Oct. It is now back under half. The recovery from August is real, but the latest loss of that majority line makes it less convincing.
My read: coin breadth alone flatters the recovery. For an allocator, the capital weighting is the useful second check. It says more of the dollars recorded in the network remain attached to coins below their creation price.
The tell: capital profit share back above 50% would strengthen the recovery read. I would want the dollar weighted measure to confirm the coin weighted one, rather than call every profitable coin equal evidence of repair.
Source: Bitview, daily to 8 Oct 2026 UTC, latest day provisional. Price is not an exchange ticker. Not advice.
Most coins are in profit. Most recorded capital is not.
At Price of 81.6k, 68.4% of Bitcoin supply is above its recorded cost. But weight those same coins by their USD value at UTXO creation, rather than treating each BTC equally, and only 43.1% of realized capital belongs to profitable outputs.
That is a 25.3 percentage point gap. Old coins with low recorded costs can lift the supply figure without carrying much weight in the capital figure. These are two views of unspent coins, not a count of investors or a measure of current market capitalization.
The chart puts this week's setback in the year's context. Capital profit share was 17.9% on 1 Aug and briefly reached 58.3% on 4 Oct. It is now back under half. The recovery from August is real, but the latest loss of that majority line makes it less convincing.
My read: coin breadth alone flatters the recovery. For an allocator, the capital weighting is the useful second check. It says more of the dollars recorded in the network remain attached to coins below their creation price.
The tell: capital profit share back above 50% would strengthen the recovery read. I would want the dollar weighted measure to confirm the coin weighted one, rather than call every profitable coin equal evidence of repair.
Source: Bitview, daily to 8 Oct 2026 UTC, latest day provisional. Price is not an exchange ticker. Not advice.
Price has slipped back under active price after four daily closes above it. On the 7 Oct UTC reading, Price is 83.2k against 84.8k for active price. That upper reference was reclaimed on 3 Oct and lost on 7 Oct.
The lower lines still matter. True market mean is 77.4k and short term holder cost is 74.2k. Price is 7.4% above the first and 12.1% above recent buyers' average cost.
My read: the upper reclaim failed, but the recovery base is still intact. I would not call a move below one reference a break of the whole structure while both lower lines hold.
The tell: a daily close back above 84.8k would repair the reclaim. A close under 77.4k would change my read on the recovery.
Active price and true market mean are cointime valuation references adjusted for coin activity, not proven support levels. Short term holders here are UTXOs younger than 150 days.
Source: Bitview, daily to 7 Oct 2026 UTC, latest day provisional. Price is not an exchange ticker. Not advice.
Short term holders are coins held under 155 days, and their average cost is the line the market defends or breaks. For 296 days after the October 2025 top, Price sat under it. Since 19 Aug Price has been above it for 49 days, the longest run in a year. Their cost has climbed from 67.0k to 74.2k, and Price is 85.2k, 15% above it.
My read: the overhang that capped every bounce this year has flipped into a cushion. Recent buyers are in profit.
The tell: a daily close under 74k would put recent buyers underwater again, and I would stop reading dips as support.
Old coins moved into the top. Supply untouched for 155 days or more fell 1.3m BTC after October 2025, then rebuilt 2.8m BTC to a 16.89m peak in July. It sits at 16.57m now. My read: the sellers are done for now. A fall back under 16m would say otherwise.
Price has reclaimed both of its big trend lines. It has held above the 200 day average ($71.5k) since 19 August and above the 1 year average ($79.4k) since 18 September, closing 4 October at $86.2k.
My read is a repair, not a new high. A year ago Price was $122k, so it is still 29% lower. MVRV, the market value over what holders paid on average, is 1.61. That sits mid range: 1.10 at the June low, 2.29 at the October 2025 peak. Realised price, the average cost of all coins, is $53.7k, so the base under the market is far below spot.
The tell: a daily close back under the 1 year average, around $79k and still drifting lower, would say the rebound was a bounce inside the old downtrend. MVRV pushing back toward 2 would say the market is repricing coins at a higher cost basis.
Source: Bitview, daily to 4 Oct 2026 UTC, provisional. Price is not an exchange ticker.
Miners cut hash rate 15% and are adding it back.
My read: the 30 day average hash rate peaked at 1,116 EH/s on 11 Nov 2025, fell to 902 EH/s by 28 Jul, and is now 953 EH/s, about 6% off the trough. Hash price, the daily US$ revenue per petahash per second before costs, bottomed at US$28 in June and is US$40 now. That is a 42% recovery in miner revenue per unit of hash.
Why institutions should care: a miner earning US$28 sells coins and switches machines off. A miner earning US$40 can fund operations and add capacity. That is less forced supply into the market and a network that is growing again rather than shrinking.
The tell that changes my read: hash price back under US$30, or hash rate falling below the July trough of 902 EH/s. Until then the miner stress of the summer looks behind us.
Source: Bitview BRK series hash_rate and hash_price_phs. Price is not an exchange ticker.
Price is 14% above what recent buyers paid.
My read: the short term holder cost basis is $73.7k and Price is $84.3k. Bitcoin reclaimed that line on 19 Aug and has held it for six weeks, after spending most of the past year underneath it. Short term holder MVRV is 1.14, a 96th percentile reading for the year, so recent buyers are sitting on real profit for the first time in a while.
Long term holders are not stretched. Their cost basis is $49.4k and their MVRV is 1.70, about the 63rd percentile. That gap is why this looks like a recovery with room, not a blow off.
The tell that matters: a daily close back below $73.7k would put recent buyers underwater again and turn that line from support into supply. Until then the trend is intact.
Source: Bitview BRK series. Price is not an exchange ticker.
US spot ETF holdings are rebuilding. They are up 57k BTC in 30 days to 684k BTC, still 65k below the 9 October 2025 peak of 749k. Price is back near 84.7k.
My read: the ETF leg is the one doing the work. CME open interest sits in the 25th percentile of its 104 week range and large holder supply in the 23rd, so participation is narrow. The Institutional Participation Score is 40 of 100, up 6 on the week.
Medium term, price has tracked ETF holdings closely since late 2024, which is partly built in because the flows are priced daily. Long term, one cycle is a thin sample, so treat it as description, not a rule.
What changes the read: CME open interest and large holders both turning up, which would push the score toward 70. A return to net outflows would break the rebuild.
Price is Bitview daily, not an exchange ticker. Holdings reconstructed from daily ETF flows.
Recovery is not the same as repair.
Bitview now reads early bull, but the sentiment score averaged over 365 days remains 1.04 below zero. The recent recovery has not erased the past year's weaker structure.
Price is $83,289, above true market mean at $77,161 but below active price at $84,554 and the long holder line at $84,644.
My read: holding above that $84,600 area would strengthen the recovery case. Losing the $77,200 true mean would weaken it. These are model reference zones, not guaranteed support or resistance.
Medium term lens, not a call on the next candle. Open day may revise. Models, not exchange quotes or forecasts.
The live reading changes the story a little. Bitview puts 37.6% of BTC likely to move within 30 days in loss at the latest represented hour, up from 36.4% at the 29 September UTC close. Short term holders moved from 26.4% to 28.2%. Model price is $83,343, below its $84,542 active price and $84,686 long holder acquisition benchmark. My read: $84,500 is still the reclaim test, and I want to see it hold rather than call a turn on one print. The 30 September UTC day is open and can revise. Coinflow models spending probabilities; it does not show future sales or dealer positioning.
My read: $84,500 is the first test. Bitview's model price for 28 September UTC ended near $83,280, below the $84,502 active price and the $84,681 long holder acquisition benchmark. The active price adjusts realized price for how much accumulated holding time has been spent. At the same snapshot, Bitview's Coinflow model put about 40.6% of supply statistically likely to move in the next 30 days in loss, up from about 33.6% the previous day. That is potential sell side sensitivity, not a forecast that those coins will sell. I want to see model price reclaim the active line before treating the bounce as convincing. These are model estimates, not exchange prints or guaranteed resistance.
My read: the ETF bid has not disappeared, but its pace faded every day last week. US spot Bitcoin funds took in $999m on Monday and $134.5m on Friday, according to The Block's SoSoValue tally. Bitview's model price for 27 September UTC is about $84,267, still below the long holder acquisition level near $84,683. That is the test this week: does new fund demand pick up enough to help price reclaim the holder benchmark? The flow figures are an aggregator tally, and today's US fund flow is not in yet. Levels are model estimates, not exchange prints.
My read: $84,700 is the holder hurdle. Bitview's model spot ended 26 September at $84,159, below the $84,697 long holder capitalized price. The all supply benchmark sits at $82,142. A sustained move back above the long holder level would make the rally more convincing. Until then, the price sits between two acquisition benchmarks, and neither one is a guaranteed support or resistance level. These are estimates from unspent output history, not exchange prints.
The quarterly expiry is behind us, and the October book is easier to read. At Deribit, the $90k call strike carries 19.7k BTC of open interest and $95k carries 23.3k. The $85k calls are much smaller at 2.7k BTC, but $85k is the nearer test with the index around $83.9k. My read: a move through $85k would put those larger October strikes back in view. Until then, they are positioning, not a forecast. Open interest says nothing by itself about which side dealers hold.
Big day for positioning. Roughly 171k BTC of Deribit options, about $14B, settle at 08:00 UTC (6pm Sydney).
The layout tells the story of this rally. There's a 7.1k BTC call wall at $90k, and the push stalled just below it. More calls are stacked at $95k and $100k. About half of all call open interest sits at $88k or higher, and it expires worthless unless BTC rips higher by this afternoon. Puts cluster between $70k and $81k, max pain is $78k, and spot is $84.6k.
My read: big expiries like this tend to pin price in the days before, then let it go. With the $90k wall gone, the lid comes off, and so does the cushion. What matters next week is whether new money wants upside above $89k or protection below $81k. Watch where fresh open interest builds.
Zones, not targets.