Bitcoin is both a convergent solution and a divergent problem
David Park
npub189xv...yrkg
Learning about Bitcoin
Michael Saylor’s bitcoin waterfall analogy:
Bitcoin is a waterfall moving capital from a 500T “gallon” mountain lake. 🌦️🏔️
Water naturally flows from an unstable, high potential energy state to a lower, energy efficient state via gravity. ⛷️
The world’s assets are doing the same by moving towards digital capital. 🌍
@Michael Saylor is engineering a dam & turbine to capture the turbulent kinetic energy released from the waterfall (volatility) and using it to light up a city (create shareholder value at $MSTR). ⚡️
Michael Saylor can lower and raise the mNAV at $MSTR
The most intolerant wins: the dominance of the stubborn minority
E.g. #bitcoin
Nassim Taleb
Once Saylor figured out bitcoin he was worried he wouldn’t be able to buy enough I.e. scarcity
X (formerly Twitter)
The ₿itcoin Therapist (@TheBTCTherapist) on X
Michael Saylor says he used to go to bed with anxiety because he didn’t think he had enough #Bitcoin and was worried someone else would buy it al...
If #bitcoin is growing at 30-50% CAGR then it’s not unreasonable for the stock to trade at 30-50x PE.
If $MSTR is accreting bitcoin at 6-10% CAGR then
30x10% is a 3x premium to NAV
50x10% is a 5x premium to NAV
https://www.youtube.com/live/TasvNr1gBGs?si=e_jd7BAvtVR9J6cf
@Michael Saylor
View quoted note →
“There’s a point of humility when you realize that maybe your brilliance was that someone else had a good idea, and to embrace the idea.”
- @Michael Saylor
“People who are gifted, smart, and high energy, it's not their natural inclination to be able to embrace and accept things that are done on your behalf rather than by your active work.”
- Tom Gayner
“To be open to the idea of cloning, it requires you to be humble (release your ego)
You need to be willing to think ‘everyone is smarter than me, and so I should copy what works’”
- Mohnish Pabrai
$MSTR = Bitcoin Treasury Company (BTC)
What an interview with @Michael Saylor
Likens $MSTR to Standard Oil, taking in “crude oil” and allowing it to be “refined” for institutions to use via convertible bonds, options, fixed income etc
If $MSTR has $3.8B in debt with 226,500 #bitcoin
Bitcoin’s price could fall to $16,777 to pay back all their loans (if no one converted their debt into shares).
$MSTR shows us the assumed increase in share count from the convertible debt.
Unlike debt, these won’t have to be paid back if #bitcoin continues to go up and the holders decide to convert.
Considerable digital asset impairment losses due to the old FASB accounting standards.
$MSTR will be able to show its gains from holding #bitcoin after 12/15/24.
$MSTR making moves to become more resilient
“Economics is pseudoscience before Satoshi… if you don’t have an instrument of proper money, you can’t posit a properly functioning economy…. #bitcoin is the singularity where science collides with economics.”
- @Michael Saylor
@Robin Seyr
Can anyone help me set up my primal wallet as a New Yorker?
If it matters I’ll be moving to New Jersey soon.
All I get are “Our apologies, we are not able to activate your Primal Wallet based on the information you provided.”
@primal
How @Michael Saylor keeps track of the BTC accretion at $mstr:
Look at the change (%) in BTC/Assumed diluted shares outstanding
#MSTR ‘s volatility is a feature not a bug.
@Michael Saylor describes buying bitcoin as putting a “crypto oscillator” or “crypto engine” onto the balance sheet.
With such a large #bitcoin position, the crypto economy drives the volatility at #MSTR
- this volatility is driving the equity
- the equity is driving the options
- the options are driving the arbitragers
- the arbitragers are providing unsecured, almost interest free capital
- the capital is then used to reinvest into #bitcoin for the benefit of shareholders
This upcoming halving “will be the most consequential halving in the history of #Bitcoin in my opinion. It will create a squeeze.”
- @Michael Saylor