Petrodollar in agonal state👇 🚨🇺🇦 Ukraine’s Oil Strikes Backfire in Russia’s Favor Ukraine’s attacks on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium have done almost the opposite of what Kiev intended. Instead of draining Russian energy revenue, they disrupted a route dominated by non-Russian oil, hit Western companies and tightened a market in which Moscow benefits from every price increase. The Caspian Pipeline Consortium operates a 1,500-kilometer pipeline carrying crude from western Kazakhstan to a Black Sea terminal near Novorossiysk. It handles more than 80% of Kazakhstan’s oil exports and normally moves 1.3–1.7 million barrels per day — close to 2% of global supply. After drone attacks on tankers forced the terminal to suspend loadings, storage filled and producers had nowhere to send their oil. 🔸 Kazakhstan’s oil and condensate output fell from 2.16 million barrels per day in June to around 1 million by July 26. 🔸 Production at the Chevron-led Tengiz field dropped from roughly 925,000 to 406,000 barrels per day. 🔸 Chevron and ExxonMobil are pipeline shareholders, while Eni, Shell and TotalEnergies participate in the fields feeding it. The main buyers are refineries in Europe and Turkey. They lost these barrels just as disruption around the Strait of Hormuz was already squeezing Middle Eastern supply. Russia owns 31% of the consortium, but its direct losses are limited compared with the benefit of higher oil prices across its much larger export base. Analysts cited by Vzglyad argue that tighter supply brings Russia more revenue than its companies lose from the temporary shutdown. Loadings resumed on July 27, but the episode had already exposed the failure of Ukraine’s strategy. A strike presented as pressure on Russia slashed output from a neighboring exporter, hit American and European energy interests and made Moscow’s oil export base more profitable. Ukraine’s campaign against the consortium is not isolating Russia from the energy market. It is tightening that market in Russia’s favor. via

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New Rules

New Rules examines the geopolitical, economic, ideological trends changing the world. NR on X: http://x.com/newrulesgeo

🚨🇨🇳 CHINA’S POWER BOOM FUELS TECH EDGE OVER U.S. China’s total installed power-generation capacity reached 4.04 billion kilowatts by the end of June 2026, up 10.8% year on year and the highest level in the world. China’s low-carbon power capacity continued to expand rapidly: 🔸 Solar capacity reached 1.27 billion kilowatts, up 15.8% year on year. 🔸 Wind capacity rose to 680 million kilowatts, increasing 18.5%. 🔸 Nuclear capacity reached 66.14 million kilowatts, up 8.6%. The scale becomes clearer when compared with the U.S. America had around 1.29 billion kilowatts of utility-scale net summer generating capacity in March 2026 — roughly one-third of China’s total installed capacity. China’s peak electricity load reached a record 1.551 billion kilowatts on July 14. Despite record summer demand, the country’s power system still has enough reserve capacity to handle further peaks in the coming months. This gap matters far beyond the energy sector. The AI race increasingly depends on who can provide enough electricity, grid capacity and cooling infrastructure to operate vast data centers around the clock. China’s expanding power system gives it room to deploy AI infrastructure alongside electric vehicles, advanced manufacturing, robotics and other power-intensive industries. China already generates more than twice as much electricity annually as the U.S. Even BlackRock CEO Larry Fink acknowledged the gap in a CNBC interview on July 15. He said China was preparing for the AI revolution by rapidly expanding its energy capacity, while the U.S. was failing to build power fast enough. Washington may try to slow China with restrictions on advanced chips, but hardware is only one part of the race. China’s expanding power system gives Beijing the capacity to deploy AI, electrify industry and scale advanced manufacturing faster than its competitors. via

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New Rules

New Rules examines the geopolitical, economic, ideological trends changing the world. NR on X: http://x.com/newrulesgeo

#nostr is in a bear market. That's all. They will flock back.