@Peter McCormack - watched all your new shows so far. It’s so cool to watch you switching on the bitcoin lightbulb for so many people that wouldn’t have looked otherwise. Kudos to you mate! Keep talking ✊

Wonder how many newbs are coming to bitcoin today in the realisation that the deflationary impacts of DeepSeek (and what’s yet to come) do not align with the current financial system. Not just that, but I wonder how many of them are looking at ETH and saying to themselves “it’s almost like ETH represents OpenAI and Solana is DeepSeek, that could explain ETHs continued drop. But wait, what happens to Solana when Solana x10 comes to town?” I’m feeling really happy just now because I feel like yesterday marked a big day in the waking up of the markets to what’s coming.

@jack mallers - sending all my friends and family here in the UK to Strike, after demoing my account. They’re loving it, especially the free DCA. Keep up the solid work my man! You’re changing the world one person at a time 🧡

My gut is telling me that Microsoft doesn’t take @Michael Saylor ‘s advice and then we see two things: 1) A sell off in MSFT shares as the BTC friendly shareholders move to MSTR. 2) A push for a vote of no confidence in the MSFT exec board, because not taking Saylor’s advice is a clear display of negligence and therefore not taking their fiduciary responsibility seriously.

Watching MSTR play out and find all the different takes on the “ridiculous premium” quite interesting. New buyers of the stock are paying 3-4x premium for bitcoin and analysts are tripping over themselves to state why the premium must fall! I’m not so sure. If I break it down to the most basic idea I’m left with this. If you had no way to buy bitcoin directly, and you thought the US adopt is soon as a strategic reserve, would you pay 3-4x for an asset today that you think goes up by a factor of 100x or more over the longer term? I would!!

Friend just asked what are the leading indicators of a bitcoin run, like we’re seeing now. He thought the answer was useful so I’ll post it here too… There are 3 leading indicators I watch for (but there’s really only one 🤔): Adoption: As more people adopt bitcoin, it causes price to go up. Adoption is simply additional demand, whereas the supply is fixed at 21 million coins that will ever exist. Having events: every 210,000 blocks the number of coins awarded to a minor for winning a block halves. That means the supply of new coins coming into the market halves. If demand for bitcoin remains the same, the price will run up until supply and demand equalise. Typically, large upward price moves start around six months after a halving. The last having was in April 2024. These large moves bring awareness and, with it, more adoption. Global liquidity: as central banks print more money or reduce rates to allow banks to lend more, bitcoiners will borrow cheap money and buy more bitcoin. It’s essentially a derivative of adoption, if you think about it. Other than that, because there is more money coming into the global fiat monetary system, it will find its way to assets as a store of value. Most of the assets in the world are price-elastic, meaning that as they get more valuable people will create more of them. However, bitcoin is price-inelastic, because it is finite in supply, meaning it’s going to appreciate much faster than any other asset. These large moves bring awareness and, with it, more adoption. Separate to those. There is also a growing awareness that the true state of an economy is deflation. It’s economics 101, as @JeffBooth would say. Humans will always innovate and make things cheaper across the world. It’s why our phones are now super-computers. It’s why travel went from walking,to horses, to wheel vehicles, to air flight, to space flight. More people are realising this and asking themselves “then why the hell do we have inflation?” We have it because we run fractional-reserve banks and without monetary inflation (i.e. a lender of last resort to build them out) they will go bust! Why? Technology is driving GDP exponentially lower every year and so as more people lose their jobs, and businesses with debts go belly up, these debts are unpaid and the banks trend towards bust. Step in central bankers. People are starting to realise that monetary inflation cannot ever stop, and is making them poorer year over year. As more realise this they’ll look for the solution and they will come to bitcoin. In doing so, they push-up adoption. IT’S ALL JUST AN ADOPTION STORY! Bitcoin is inevitable, the people that realise it the fastest are the ones that will be able to help their friends and family the most in future. Bitcoin is the greatest humanitarian tool the world has ever been given.

Watching @Luke Gromen‘s thesis starting to play out in the bond market is proving to be very interesting. I’m wondering is it a Trump trade or is it actually just the reality of the US (and global) credit risk position playing out? My gut says a bit of both. As Luke would say, let’s watch…

@Peter McCormack , @Danny Knowles - enjoying the new podcast series 👍

Just watched the Saif/Saylor discussion after hearing opinions on it. Wow, I thought Michael would understand that without a lender of last resort, you cannot run fractional reserve. Sure, people will try, but take it from a bank credit risk analyst that they will lose! Saylor stated “If the capital doesn’t generate a return, it’s a non-performing asset.” I disagree. In time even Saylor will be reprogrammed into realising that capital doesn’t need a return when the capital is finite. The return is deflation, without the capital failing. I have huge admiration for saylor, but I think he’s wrong on this one.