M2-Bitcoin Elasticity: the answer is....2.65x One of the key raison d'etres for hodling bitcoin is it's close, positive correlation with global liquidity. This can be as high as 95% over the long-term. So it pays to keep an eye on the relationship. With that in mind, I dug around to find out if there was any research that quantified the likely relationship between bitcoin and M2. I came across this paper in that well known publication, The Journal of Economics and Social Dynamics: "The M2-Bitcoin Elasticity: A Cointegration Analysis (2015–2025)." Although focused on US M2 only, it concluded that there was "..a long run elasticity of 2.65, suggesting a 1% increase in the M2 money supply is associated with a 2.65% increase in the price of Bitcoin. Furthermore, it suggests that there is a where there is any significant deviation from the long-run equilibrium it will be corrected at a monthly rate of approximately 12 percent. Based on this rate, it would take around 8–9 months for the system to revert to the mean after a shock. Link:

WM Journals

The M2-Bitcoin Elasticity: A Cointegration Analysis (2015–2025)

This paper studies the existence of the long-run equilibrium relationship between the US M2 money supply (M2SL) and the price of Bitcoin (BTC) span...

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GM from Buckinghamshire, UK #asknostr https://blossom.primal.net/dbef3a3b89ab50b19a483f9de582404ca3b921a268b48e997f4b4efd5e3a2c6c

More fiat architecture - only 23 years old and they are demolishing the heart of this acclaimed Norman Forster building .#asknostr

Just tried to buy a chisel in my local store and found it had a security lock on it. Apparently they are dangerous weapons. #asknostr https://blossom.primal.net/a3cd81938b8ef2b63c906b1fbb69aeaae19ece5cee3381f50c808b5d2d5be6d2

GM. Where will it lead today? #asknostr

“Treating all privacy-oriented digital assets as suspect would be akin to banning locks because criminals might hide behind closed doors.” Electric Coin Company CEO Josh Swihart #asknostr

FROM CARTWHEELS TO STABLECOINS I've just been clearing out some of my father's old belongings and I came across this well travelled coin (see picture). It turns out to be a copper "cartwheel". In the 18th century, Britain faced a coinage crisis. The Royal Mint’s copper coin production couldn’t keep pace with industrial growth, leaving workers unpaid and commerce strained. Enter private mints, which issued copper tokens—dubbed “cartwheels” for their size and weight—to fill the gap. These tokens, often minted by merchants and industrialists, were backed by local trust and redeemable for goods, services or one-penny coins minted by the Royal Mint. Fast-forward to the 21st century, and stablecoins like Tether (USDT) echo this innovation, addressing modern gaps in financial systems with privately issued digital currencies. Like 18th-century cartwheels, stablecoins emerged from necessity. Where copper tokens countered coin shortages, stablecoins tackle inefficiencies in global finance—high fees, slow transfers, and currency volatility. Tether, launched in 2014, is pegged to the US dollar, aiming for stability akin to the trust-based value of copper tokens. Both rely on issuer credibility; cartwheels depended on merchants’ reputations, while Tether’s value hinges on it's underlying reserves, with controversies over transparency mirroring historical skepticism of private mints. Cartwheels circulated locally, accepted by communities familiar with issuers, much like stablecoins thrive within the crypto ecosystem, enabling fast, low-cost transactions across borders. Both have faced regulatory scrutiny. In 1814, the British government banned private tokens, fearing counterfeiting and loss of monetary control, eventually issuing official coins. Similarly, regulators today question stablecoins’ stability and potential for systemic risk, with calls for oversight growing as Tether’s market cap exceeds $160 billion in 2025. The parallels are striking; both cartwheels and stablecoins democratised finance, bypassing centralised bottlenecks, but inviting distrust and regulatory pushback. The US GENIUS Act (2025) and EU’s MiCA (2024) impose strict reserve and transparency rules, threatening Tether’s market access with potential delistings (e.g., EU exchanges by March 2025). While cartwheels faded with state intervention, Tether’s and other stablecoin future likely hinges on increased regulatory compliance. Innovation thrives in gaps, but lasting success demands trust, transparency, and typically, great regulatory adherence. #asknostr

#asknostr tempting to suggest an orange themed note

So Farage thinks it's a good idea to trust the Bank of England with a UK Bitcoin reserve. I would sooner put my cat in charge. #asknostr

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I think being a bitcoiner and not running a node is a little like being an adult who refuses to vote but insists on whining about the state of the roads/schools/fill in the blank. Well, in my limited technical capacity I started to whine about Op Return. So today seems like a good day in a soggy UK to install my newly arrived Umbrel Home. I vote for ....Bitcoin Knots. #asknostr

Was cleaning out my desk and I found my old thesis. At the time (1993) I remember feeling quite proud as got a First and proved that there was a negative correlation between the degree of Central Bank independence and the level of interest rates. If only I knew then what I now know! #asknostr

Bluebells, bicycling and of course...Bitcoin. Three of my favourite pastimes right now. Have a great day! #asknostr

GM #asknostr. Controversial statement but the RV (Realised Violet) is getting high...the top is nearly in.

GM nostriches. There are so many reasons to leave the UK right now, but then the bluebells arrive...#asknostr

Welcome to the real Brave New World (UK Guardian Newspaper today) #asknostr

GM! They say you should never look inside a woman's handbag. This is my wife's. @#AskNostr