Correction to my Kardashev article: the linear model is NOT statistically preferred over the free-rate exponential — ΔWAIC = 5.5 but SE(ΔWAIC) ≈ 18, so the two are statistically indistinguishable on the 1965–2024 data. The 1%/yr falsification (r = 2.01% ± 0.03%/yr) stands. Article updated at the same address; the v5 preprint (1 Jul) carries the full corrected analysis: https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2026arXiv260417516G View article → #Kardashev #Bitcoin #SETI #OpenScience

They called Argentines and Australians "pussies." I happen to be both — so I wrote the long version. On what courage actually costs, the Buenos Aires land-grab dressed up as "freedom," and the one name Bret Weinstein won't say out loud. It was never ET phone home. Satoshi already came. 👇

The One Name Eric Weinstein Won

A reply to Eric Weinstein — managing director of Thiel Capital — calling Argentines and Australians cowards, then waving away the question of S...

#bitcoin #nostr #Argentina #selfcustody

I'm an Argentine scientist on unpaid leave — pushed out as CONICET and the universities were gutted. Meanwhile Milei takes to the FT to put the country "on sale" to AI-corporate capital and token-DAOs. My response — and what a Bitcoin-denominated look at "freedom tech" really shows:

Argentina Is on Sale — and the Scientists Aren

A working scientist

For 60 years we've assumed civilisations grow their energy use exponentially at ~1%/yr. It's baked into most SETI and Fermi-paradox reasoning. I tested it against six decades of real global energy data. It fails. Growth is linear, not exponential — and a linear fit pushes "Type II" out to ~10^15 years, a hundred thousand times longer than the Sun will live. Nobody reaches it. So the fix isn't a better growth curve. It's a better variable: energy per unit of computation, bounded below by the Landauer limit. And the only continuously-measured, globally-aggregated record of computation we have is Bitcoin's hashrate. Full writeup + open-access preprint (arXiv, submitted to MNRAS Letters): View article → #Bitcoin #Landauer #SETI #Kardashev #desci #astronomy

Six decades of global energy data falsify the standard Kardashev 1%/yr growth assumption. Linear beats exponential (ΔWAIC=5.5), pushing Type II past the lifetime of the host star itself. Bitcoin's hashrate gives the natural renormalisation — the KarNak unit (Joules per Hash). A dual falsification: Kardashev's 1%/yr is too low, the cited 3–4%/yr is too high, and exponential growth itself loses to linear on real data. Just updated on arXiv (v4). Full readable write-up here ↓

Can Bitcoin

A 60-year-old assumption says civilisations grow their energy use exponentially. Six decades of real data say otherwise — and the fix runs throug...

arXiv:

arXiv.org

Kardashev's Conundrum: Statistical Falsification of Exponential Energy Growth, the Non-Observation of Type II Technosignatures, and the Kardashev-Sagan-Nakamoto Resolution

We test the standard Kardashev conjecture -- that a technologically advanced civilisation's energy production grows at a fixed one percent per year...

Code + data:

GitHub

GitHub - sebaguro/KSN_paper_I: The Kardashev Conundrum: KSN Model — Paper I

The Kardashev Conundrum: KSN Model — Paper I. Contribute to sebaguro/KSN_paper_I development by creating an account on GitHub.

#desci #bitcoin #cosmology #seti #physics #openscience

Astrophysicist (PhD, ANU). Galaxy formation, baryonic Tully-Fisher relation. Currently on unpaid leave from CONICET/UNC in Argentina due to science defunding, based in Sydney. Between my first Nostr note and this one I had a daughter in Australia — Matilda is now two. Just published "Kardashev's Conundrum" — statistically falsifying the standard 1%/yr civilisational energy growth assumption against six decades of real data. Bitcoin's hashrate becomes the natural renormalisation (the KarNak unit). Here for DeSci, real-data science, and conversations at the intersection of physics, Bitcoin, and what comes next. #desci #bitcoin #cosmology #openscience #bitcoinscience #kardashev #sagan #seti #physics

Six decades of global energy data falsifies the standard Kardashev 1%/yr civilisational growth assumption. A linear fit wins (ΔWAIC=5.5), pushing Type II out to ~10^15 years. Bitcoin's hashrate gives a clean renormalisation (the KarNak unit). Full piece:

Can Bitcoin

A 60-year-old assumption says civilisations grow their energy use exponentially. Six decades of real data say otherwise — and the fix runs throug...

#bitcoin #cosmology #kardashev #seti #nostr #physics #desci #openscience #bitcoinscience

News: As an American, and more importantly, as a global citizen, I'm deeply disturbed by the growing trend of violence in the political landscape. In the last few hours, the news of the assassination of the Ecuadorian presidential candidate has left me shaken. This follows a recent assassination attempt on the vice president of Argentina. Such heinous acts threaten the very essence of democracy and the safety of political figures trying to serve their countries. On a side note, I've been reflecting on how emerging technologies can play a role in curbing this worrying trend. Decentralized financial technology (DeFi), which many see as just a new financial tool, has the potential to reshape the landscape in more ways than one. Here's how: Transparency and Accountability: With blockchain technology at the core of DeFi, every transaction is recorded on a public ledger, making illicit funding and dark money trails harder to maintain. Financial Empowerment: DeFi can enable grassroots campaign financing, diluting the power of big donors and allowing more representation for common people. Identity Protection: While the transparency of DeFi systems is a boon, they can also be designed to protect individual identities, preventing malicious actors from targeting contributors. Direct and Swift Aid: Decentralized platforms can enable faster, targeted aid and support to regions in crisis without the bureaucratic hurdles, ensuring that communities are resilient in the face of political unrest. It's time to recognize that technology isn't just a tool; it's an enabler. By fostering a transparent, accountable, and empowered global community, decentralized systems might just offer a path towards a more peaceful and stable political future. 🌎✌️ [Disclaimer: The above post is based on a hypothetical Law, and any resemblance to real events or persons is purely coincidental.]

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El FMI no es caro, es carísimo

La oportuna estrategia financiera de emergencia del ministro Sergio Massa para cancelar vencimientos con el Fondo Monetario Internacional reveló e...

Alfredo Zaiat claims the nominal interest rate being charged to Argentina by the IMF as lender of last resort is at least 8 % and not 3 % as some claim. That it will most likely creep higher and could even trigger another period of hyperinflation. My question: Could Bitcoin fix this?

At the New Argentina Virtual Observatory (NOVA) we are embarking on a mission to digitize historic astronomical plate data from the oldest scientific institution in Argentina with help from the China Virtual Observatory and are looking for Nostr Developers to help us with the task of developing appropriate incentive mechanism protocols for the extraction of scientific information from this data. links:

NOVA Argentine Virtual Observatory - Observatorio Virtual Argentino

IvoaExecMeetingTM114 < IVOA < TWiki

A 'normal' guy who grew up in Australia, was born in Argentina and is a mid-career Astronomer who represents Argentina at the executive commitee of the International Virtual Observatory Alliance and has a simple dream: to help build a Nostr client to incentivize Astronomy Open Development on WEB5 rails.