We’re not going to get to $58k, are we? This cycle continues to disappoint.

Clarity Act bump: over/under 15%

The problem with these bitcoin treasury companies is that they suck at managing bitcoin treasuries.

Bitcoin needs a bullish catalyst. I thought the PMI Manufacturing would help but I guess things are worse in Japan than I fully appreciated. When are they going to turn on the money printer? When do gold bugs take 20% of their profits and rotate into bitcoin? When does the SBR expand with some tariff $$? Like wtf is it going to take. Bitcoin is primed for a rip but you’ve got CZ and Binance absolutely sticking it to the hodlers. What gives?

Maybe the bitcoin treasury companies should stop taunting short sellers to “short sell them”…hasn’t worked out for them so far.

It's bad out there guys. 4 & 5 year HODL return and risk adjusted returns are absolutely in the toilet. Wall Street is undermining bitcoin's use case as a superior storer of value.

At least all the influencers went the Michael Saylor $100k party. How we feeling about that egofest these days, guys?

I wonder how all the bitcoin / crypto adjacent bros who lobbied the bitcoin community to support Trump feel about his first year nothing burger. A good reminder that politicians will never be our friend.

There aren’t anymore longs to liquidate…

How is bitcoin getting more attention than political and business involvement with Epstein. Super sketch narrative manipulation by the powers that be.

Bitcoin podcasts have surprisingly little bitcoin talk these days.

In hindsight, it will be so obvious. They’re buying time for their banking bros to stack some sats.

How little the powers that be are willing to talk publicly about bitcoin is a direct measure of how much they understand and how scared they are of what bitcoin does to their power structure. This is the moment of the war. One more retail pump and their control is gone forever because the network effect of another wave of hardcore bitcoiners becoming wealthy will completely erode their FUD narratives. Almost everyone with any financial literacy knows a bitcoin maximalist. With the next retail windfall, it will become clear to a whole ‘nother level of retail and institutional adoption that control LARGE pools of capital and know that the current system is fragile and breaking. They cannot allow a retail bitcoin pump. This is the moment.

Wall Street is trying to dump before it becomes clear that Trump’s BBB and eventual resolution of the Clarity Act signals it’s safe to invest in bitcoin (and crypto 🙄😖🤮) again. We make it to March 2nd and the 2nd consecutive PMI green candle, then 2026 is going to get a lot more fun. Until, hunker down and avoid the volleys. There is very little long leverage left. Liquidity comes from bad actors and scared retail hodlers.

Somewhere along the way, we - as bitcoiners - forgot to keep saying Game Theory. Feels apropos at this moment.

People seem to forget that the bull run started almost a year early with the ETFs, an ATH before the halving. So when we’re thinking of “cycle” timing, the reality is that even if “cycles” are still a thing, we’re already about at the timing for the “cycle” to be bottoming out based on the last “cycle.” ETF flows have been shit. Feels like many ETF buyers would be eager to buy at a 40% discount. Should see those flows pick up here soon.

What’s the best open-source frontier LLM model?

19.98M bitty are in circulation. Adding 450 bitty / day. Feels like at some point, most of these will find diamond hands again. Only question is when. Hopefully soon.