It feels like we are still a 3-10 years away from the next leg up in bitcoin adoption. It takes time for global trust to erode, and current networks to fail. The "gradually" (ahead of "suddenly") can take much, much longer than people think.
But everything keeps moving in the direction of bitcoin. Namely, global trust is eroding, more and more, every day and month. Extreme politics. Inflation. Plummeting quality of life. It all rips people's trust, and it is only going in one direction.
Gold is having its moment. But physical gold is for institutions and the ultra rich. Acquisition and custody is too cumbersome otherwise, and it is a terrible medium of exchange.
Obtaining and custodying physical metal is too hard for the lower classes, who are hit hardest and where societal change starts and grows.
And, if there is a big market crash or failure or collapse of trust in financial institutions, folks will be increasingly fearful of custodial solutions.
The other favorable trend is technology, and the younger generations comfort with the same. Again, all roads lead to bitcoin -- so long as the network stays secure and decentralized (the foundations of trust), and the world keeps trading away from the control of central institutions.
Toby McMann
npub1elqf...xw9h
Bitcoin enthusiast | Nostr only
Nosce te ipsum
Human action is often defined by trust.
When the US weaponizes the USD by kicking Russia off SWIFT, etc (something it had never done previously in any conflict), the US erodes trust.
When the US invades and and kills school children without any clear mission, trust is lost.
When Iran weaponizes Hormuz, something never done prior, trust is lost.
When Trump threatens to bomb civilian electric generation, and Iran says water infrastructure and nuclear facilities are similarly in play, both war crimes, trust is lost.
When trust is lost, the world becomes smaller and more expensive. Trade suffers. Standard of living goes down. People suffer. And folks lean into things they can trust. Where do people turn? What can they trust?
Community. Family. Nature. God. Even pets. Etc. Tech will bring such folks together.
But monetarily, from a big macro and societal/governmental perspective, how do societies trade when trust is lost? For energy needs, what do people trust? Those going through an energy crisis currently, how do you pivot?
I think the answers to these questions is your investment thesis -- ie, the "trust trade" for your time and energy.
No right answer. All value is subjective. Protect your individual sovereignty, frens.
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