You know, you’ll find me an AI skeptic on a lot of the boldest claims. Here’s one I almost never see: for those who are curious, epistemically honest, and self-aware, AI is a godsend of a learning tool. Over the last 48-72 hours, I’ve been doing a real deep-dive on the private credit crisis portion of the tripartite economic crisis scenario from my latest article, here.

AI Isn’t Taking Your Job. The Crash Might.

The real employment threat isn't automation from AI, it's what happens when the bubble meets private credit collapse and supply shock.

(I’m due for an update on that topic, and overdue on much more across my Substack.) A hypothetical—Viewed from 2030, what would we have expected to see in 2025-2026? (Assuming a private credit crisis, AI bubble collapse, and simultaneous supply and demand destruction (Iran War +) crashes the economy in 2026-2027.) Is that present? What’s nuanced? Where is there countervailing evidence or sentiment? What are the mechanics, triggers, transmission systems, etc.? And wow, am I deep down the rabbit hole. Now, I follow the macroeconomics and finance news as I can, and try to keep track of the analysts on FinTwit. This is threading those needles into a highly coherent tapestry. All while learning/exercising: • Structured finance and credit markets literacy • Systemic risk analysis • Source criticism and epistemics applied to financial data • Political economy of financial regulation • Interdisciplinary synthesis That’s usually reserved to formalized university or accredited learning vehicles. The fact I can design my own course and subject—so long as I’m vigilant about confirmation bias, check the sources, and produce original theses and critiques—is genuinely revolutionary for learning.

This is a hugely under-appreciated point, and Larry’s right to point it out. The more we have to spend to service the debt, the less there is for anything we want government to do. Defense. Healthcare. Social Security. Infrastructure. … Fixing the money matters for government capacity, too. Good door-opener to conversation with those who don’t yet understand sound money or Bitcoin.

I can’t stress enough that the political reform folks needs to at least understand the monetary reform folks, and vice versa. Because they are two sides of the same coin. If you don’t fix the money, you can’t fix the world. But if you don’t fix the politics, you still can’t fix the world.

From The Guardian US: “World is approaching point where no one can shut down a rogue AI, says director of body behind research” Feeling uncomfortable about this Doctor Who quote these days: “Clara: Why would a computer need to protect itself from the people who made it? The Doctor: All computers do that in the end. You wait ’til the internet starts. Oh, that was a war.” One would hope we would find a way to be more responsible. (Or rather, build systems with better incentive structures to encourage and reward responsible behavior.) #AI

the Guardian

‘No one has done this in the wild’: study observes AI replicate itself

World is approaching point where no one can shut down a rogue AI, says director of body behind study

There’s an underlying tension to just about every major political issue in America today. It’s marching in the protests. It’s in the memes and wry tweets. It’s in the posters. It’s implied in the appeals politicians, advocacy organizations, and even companies make. It’s asked for in press conferences, public statements, campaign advertisements, and every fundraising push. Trust. Americans have lost a great deal of trust in their institutions and government. In their political leadership and parties. In their economy and business leadership. In their society and in each other. Trust is the most coveted, most scarce political asset in America. It cannot be spontaneously willed, argued, or reasoned back. No amount of institutional wording, grandstanding, prestige, or influence will bring it back. It must be earned. To recover it, we need to repair the systems that continually break trust. That is the first step towards renewing America. Almost nobody is engaging seriously on that task. We have run out of short-term. The question is—who will be the first to take the long road towards rebuilding trust in America?

It’s wild when you step back from everything going on and realize almost nobody has a plan for a future America that goes beyond 2028.

Structural and systemic challenges don’t stay hypothetical emergencies forever. Eventually, things break. It’s easier to perform maintenance than repair work. But when your tools for fixing things are themselves broken, fixing your tools is the most important place to start.

Meanwhile, Trump: “A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will.” This is not helping anyone. And I don’t see how this accomplishes anything other than to threaten what likely amounts to genocidal war crimes.

In an online world dominated by pessimism, bad news, and division, be the clear-eyed optimist who will talk with just about anyone.

Just got my Fold card. Pretty stoked. Spend fiat and earn cash-back in a sound money? Sold.

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It’s possible to be incredibly critical—scathing even—of the institutions that be… … and still recognize that they serve a purpose and can be used for the public good. Too much of our political discourse is all or nothing, black and white. Reality is painted in shades of grey.

A society in which everyone is looking to take for themselves and leaves nothing behind becomes a graveyard.

Really seems private credit is starting to meltdown now, likely taking a good chunk of the AI industry and blue chip growth with it. Massive redemptions at Blue Owl and Treasury calling regulators in to talk about private credit risks. Good time to recall that none of this need have happened—and we can fix it. We need an institutional transition to sound money—and Bitcoin is the best sound money we have. https://www.ft.com/content/09f4fa70-d3e6-4abc-bc95-234afe7111f4 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-02/blue-owl-bdcs-impose-caps-after-facing-41-22-requests-to-exit

Latest. I hope I’m wrong. What do you think?

AI Isn’t Taking Your Job. The Crash Might.

The real employment threat isn't automation from AI, it's what happens when the bubble meets private credit collapse and supply shock.

You can’t fix what you refuse to face. Politically— we say we want solutions but our electoral systems reward avoidance. Leaders don’t name tradeoffs and institutions don’t admit failure. Everything becomes messaging instead of decision-making. And so nothing actually gets fixed. Economically— we say we care about the future, but our economic systems keep borrowing from it. Debt lets us delay hard choices and inflation hides the cost. Everything becomes delay instead of decision-making. And so we keep struggling and kicking the can down the road. Socially— we say we want a stronger country, but our social systems expect less of each other. Responsibility gets outsourced and citizenship becomes licensed commentary. Everything becomes spectatorship instead of participation. And so the civics that hold a society together weaken and become brittle. We can turn all of this around. And it’s high time that we do.

We need to do for electoral incentives and governance what Bitcoin as a sound money does for economic incentives and the economy. Repair and renew them.

Honest Institutions (Part 1): How America's Institutions Lost Trust

How broken incentives in elections and government undermine accountability, honesty, and faith in our democracy.

I know I’m preaching to the choir here on Nostr, but perhaps someone finds this article and argument useful to explain to their non-orange-pilled friends: What do the affordability crisis, the decline of American industry and manufacturing, the national debt crisis, wealth inequality, and the erosion of the middle class all have in common? Well, money.

Sound Money (Part 1): Why America’s Economy Lost Its Anchor

How fiat currency weakened the economy, eroded the middle class, and turned crisis management into a way of governing.

We need to work towards honest institutions—not tear them down.

Honest Institutions (Part 1): How America's Institutions Lost Trust

How broken incentives in elections and government undermine accountability, honesty, and faith in our democracy.

Happy to report I am now zappable! Joining the Bitcoin community more fully. Let’s bring Sound Money back, better.

If your system will break without villains, it’s not about villains. It’s about design. Bitcoin offers better monetary design. But we need better institutional design, too. Let’s have an America of Honest Institutions.

Honest Institutions (Part 1): How America's Institutions Lost Trust

How broken incentives in elections and government undermine accountability, honesty, and faith in our democracy.