The Iranian regime has said 3,375 people were killed in this war compared to 15 U.S soldiers confirmed killed. Israel meanwhile has said they have lost 14 soldiers and 27 civilians.

The Iranian regime can say it won the war because it survived the enormous amount of destruction to their economy and industrial sector. To paraphase Captain Hunt, the regime are a group of weak rulers, ruling over a declining state*, but who too often have extravagant notions of their own power and importance. *The regime bears enormous responsibility, for causing the decline, by severe mismanagement of basic needs such as the water table, to spending money on non-state armed groups that have isolated Iran's economy from the rest of the world.

Israel has been targeting the senior leadership of the Ḥarakat Amal- also known as Amal. During the Lebanon Civil War they had a brutal fight with Hezbollah to determine who could be the leading militia for the Shia of Lebanon. Iran made sure that Hezbollah won in the end. The long term impact has been the subjugation of Shia militias under the thumb of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

The Iran War went from being a existential fight for the regime to a culture war meme.

If Iran's railway network is severely damaged it will slow down the regime's speed of recovery. One of the aims of China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is to reduce reliance on maritime trade. Allowing them to bypass Western sanctions with regards to Russia and Iran.

Hezbollah is fighting for the regime in Iran, and these are some of the casualties they suffered within the last 4 days. This is what they bring upon themselves.

The rescue of the F-15's WSO should be made into a movie. A mix of Argo, Behind Enemy Lines and Black Hawk Down.

The Royal Navy's destroyer HMS Daring has spent over 3000 days being out of service compared to the 2,307 days it took to be built and commissioned.

"Russian diplomatists have invariably sought to aggravate the case and render an accommodation impossible." Captain George Hunt (1858)

President Trump appears to be confused about Iran acting strange in the negotiations. First reason for that would be the recent deaths of many in the revolutionary regime leads to extreme paranoia. Second, Iran's geography encourages factionalism, that comes to the surface whenever a regime faces an existential crisis. Finally, the Supreme Leaders by centralising power, similar to the way the Shahs of the past, have played different factions off each other. Now those factions feel there's less constraints to achieve their own objectives, and they wish to use Trump against their rivals. The White House is speaking to multiple factions at the same time.

Mohammed Baqir Qalibaf- the Speaker of Parliament, appears to be the person who is negotiating on behalf of what's left of the Iranian regime.

This war against Iran is ample evidence that shows just how much Russia has effectively been downgraded from being a global superpower.

Qatar putting a pause on its Gas exports is terrible for China- Iran's patron. In terms of volume of China's liquefied natural gas imports, Qatar is its second biggest supplier with 23% of its needs, Oman is the eight largest and the U.A.E is the 11th. Maybe the Ayatollah regime has decided its time to go out spectacularly and hurt China in the process.

Khamenei, who fashioned himself [as] the heir to an Islamic revolution against the enemies of God, was killed by the Jewish state on the eve of the Jewish festival that celebrates the destruction of a Persian enemy who sought to destroy the Jews. https://critiqueanddigest.substack.com/p/this-is-the-end

"Tehran has just demonstrated, in the most visceral terms possible, that neutrality offers no protection against a regime that treats its neighbors as targets regardless of their diplomatic position."

Iran's Gulf Gambit

A Bet Against a Ticking Clock