Dating back to 2021, @npub1a2cw...w83a and @npub1r00t...sqe8 have some of the best track records for predictions in the space.

Rational Root — Bitcoin prediction track record

75% flat accuracy over 12 resolved BTC price calls — 9 hit, 3 miss, 0 partial. Proven · scored against the price oracle.

Lyn Alden — Bitcoin prediction track record

71% flat accuracy over 19 resolved BTC price calls — 12 hit, 4 miss, 3 partial. Proven · scored against the price oracle.

WORD5 #634 3/6 ⬛⬛🟪⬛⬛ 🟪🟪🟪⬛🟪 🟪🟪🟪🟪🟪

WORD5

@MartyBent has a decent track record.

Marty Bent — Bitcoin prediction track record

70% flat accuracy over 5 resolved BTC price calls — 3 hit, 1 miss, 1 partial. Established · scored against the price oracle.

Ever wonder how bad Peter Schiff's predictions have been?

Peter Schiff — Bitcoin prediction track record

35% flat accuracy over 10 resolved BTC price calls — 2 hit, 5 miss, 3 partial. Proven · scored against the price oracle.

Ever wonder if a certain Bitcoiner actually called it — or just got lucky once and won't stop reminding you? I built a scoreboard:

Bitcoin Prediction Scoreboard

Bitcoin Prediction Scoreboard

A living, citation-backed tracker of public Bitcoin price calls, scored against a daily price oracle.

Every public BTC price prediction I could find, linked to the exact tweet / podcast timestamp / article, and scored against what Bitcoin actually did. Flat scoring — every resolved call counts the same, no hiding behind "high conviction." (Example: Scaramucci's "$100k by end of 2021" … aged about how you'd expect.) Sources: X, podcasts (incl. audio-only shows transcribed with Whisper, back to 2021), articles, and Nostr — methodology and the raw data are fully open at /sources and /data. It's live and constantly growing. Don't see someone who belongs on there? Reply and I'll dig them up.

I’ve noticed and important emergence of new software engineers — previously held back by the barrier to entry of coding knowledge. Software engineering has always been a way of thinking. AI opened this up to capture a wider group.

WORD5 #632 3/6 ⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛ ⬛🟪🟧🟧🟧 🟪🟪🟪🟪🟪

WORD5

Download open source LLMs like they’ll be illegal tomorrow

I have a vision. We’re half way there already. Users able to create entire workflows using nostr and decentralized systems. All a user needs is their nostr keys. Using grasp + ngit + nostr relays for source control. A Secure Enclave build agent chosen using nostr and paid for with cashu. Site hosted as an nsite using NSIT for name look up. All done through a one-off vpn using nostr (like https://europa.westernbtc.com)

WORD5 #630 6/6 🟧⬛🟪⬛⬛ ⬛⬛🟪🟧⬛ ⬛🟪🟪⬛⬛ ⬛🟪🟪⬛⬛ ⬛🟪🟪⬛⬛ 🟪🟪🟪🟪🟪

WORD5

Hey there’s really cool stuff being built here. I want to help.