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Michael Wilkins
thebitcointransition@primal.net
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Founder, Involve Digital. Founder, The Bitcoin Transition. Focused on sound money, incentives, and systems. Bitcoin as a monetary protocol, not a speculative asset. Exploring how hard money shapes technology, productivity, and long-term human progress.
Most people still think in fiat terms. They look at Bitcoin’s price in dollars and try to anchor it to today’s global asset market, which is also measured in dollars. That framing assumes the dollar remains the dominant unit of account indefinitely. If Bitcoin were to reach the final stage of monetary adoption, becoming a widely used unit of account, valuation would invert. Assets would no longer be priced primarily in dollars and then translated into Bitcoin. They would be natively priced in sats. That means every asset and every liability would have a Bitcoin price. Property. Equity. Debt. Commodities. Luxury goods. Intellectual property. Everything that carries economic value. At the same time, global productivity does not stand still. Technology, automation, and innovation continue to expand the quantity and quality of goods and services. The stock of valuable things in the world grows over time. In that scenario, a fixed-supply monetary base measuring a growing pool of productive assets will naturally reflect that expansion in its purchasing power relative to weaker monetary units. The common objection comes from projecting a future Bitcoin-denominated world onto today’s fiat-denominated balance sheets. It assumes today’s dollar aggregates are a hard ceiling. They are not. They are contingent on the monetary system currently in place. If a transition were to occur, the relevant question would not be “how high can Bitcoin go in dollars,” but rather “what happens to the dollar’s purchasing power relative to a fixed monetary supply in a world of expanding output.” Those are two very different analytical frames. #Bitcoin
I’m tired of scrolling LinkedIn and seeing the same posts on repeat: “Bitcoin is down $66k.” “Bitcoin is down 50%.” “Bitcoin is failing.” Every speculator has an opinion. Everyone pretends they know what’s happening. Almost none of it matters. Because nothing fundamental about Bitcoin has changed. Bitcoin is not a stock. It is not a tech company. It is not a yield product. It is not a macro trade. Bitcoin is a monetary protocol. Here’s what hasn’t changed: The supply is still fixed at 21 million Blocks are still produced roughly every 10 minutes Nodes still independently verify every rule Miners still secure the network via proof-of-work Difficulty still adjusts automatically No central party can change the rules That’s Bitcoin. The only thing that’s moved is the fiat exchange rate people use to talk about it. When people say “Bitcoin is down,” what they actually mean is: One unit of Bitcoin currently exchanges for fewer dollars. That tells you something about dollars, not about Bitcoin. Bitcoin doesn’t promise price stability in fiat terms. It promises monetary integrity. It removes discretionary money creation. It removes counterparty risk. It removes the need to speculate just to preserve purchasing power. That’s why so many people misunderstand it. Most people don’t want money. They want more fiat. So they trade Bitcoin instead of using it. They time tops and bottoms. They chase narratives. They panic when the unit of account they don’t trust moves against them. But when you stop pricing your life in fiat and start pricing it in Bitcoin, the picture flips: Goods get cheaper over time. Savings stop evaporating. Long-term planning becomes possible again. That’s the point. Bitcoin doesn’t need defending during drawdowns. It needs understanding. Price noise will come and go. The protocol remains consistent. Tick tock. Next Block That’s #Bitcoin
#Bitcoin is down ~6% today. Emotions are up. This is normal in a fiat-priced world. Short-term price moves are noise created by leveraged markets, traders, and liquidity flows. They do not change what Bitcoin is. If you price your life in Bitcoin terms, something important becomes clear: Over the last10 years, life has become cheaper, not more expensive when living on a Bitcoin standard. While people living entirely in fiat struggle with rising rents, food, energy, and debt, those saving in Bitcoin have seen their purchasing power increase over time. I’ve have personally lived on a Bitcoin standard for over a decade. My cost of living has gone down. My savings have strengthened. I carry no fiat clown world debt. Not because I speculate. But because I focus on producing value in the economy, I get paid for that productivity, and store it in Bitcoin. This is Austrian economics in practice: • Create real value • Avoid debt • Save in hard money • Let time work for you The fiat price of Bitcoin means nothing long term. What matters is: • How many sats you hold • Whether you self-custody • Whether you can earn, save, and eventually spend sats Bitcoin doesn’t need to “go up.” Fiat needs to keep falling — and it always does long term. When measured against an infinite, debasing currency, Bitcoin’s upside is asymmetrical by design. Most people haven’t figured this out yet. Stay calm. Ignore the charts. Be productive. Stack sats.
You don’t buy Bitcoin. You sell fiat to acquire sats. The price is just an exchange rate between two units. One expands by design. The other does not. Fiat loses purchasing power over time. Bitcoin preserves it. When viewed correctly, timing matters less than direction. You are exchanging a melting asset for a scarce one. People fixate on entry price because they still think in fiat terms. But the goal is not to “get rich.” It is to stop getting poorer. Each sat acquired is stored time and energy. Verified. Portable. Final. Over the long term, the exchange rate will fluctuate. The monetary properties will not. Acquire sats. Hold your keys. Measure wealth in what you keep, not what you trade. #Bitcoin
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Michael Wilkins 2 months ago
Arrived back in London today. At Heathrow, I overheard someone say their Heathrow Express ticket was £30. £30 to take a train from the airport into the city. This is not a transport story. It is a currency story. Purchasing power is what money can buy. When everyday services absorb larger portions of income, purchasing power has declined. Not long ago, £30 represented meaningful optionality. Today, it is consumed by a short, unavoidable trip. The number stayed the same. The value did not. This is how currency decline presents itself. Quietly. Through routine transactions. Most people notice prices. Few notice the unit of account failing. #GBP #Inflation #PurchasingPower #SoundMoney #Bitcoin
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Michael Wilkins 2 months ago
Most so-called “crypto educators” are not teaching you how to make money. They don’t even understand the definition of money. They are teaching speculation. Usually in the shitcoin casino. Trading systems, indicators, cycles, narratives. All framed around one goal: increasing a fiat balance. That is not making money. That is chasing units of account that lose purchasing power. Speculation is a zero-sum game. For every winner, there is a loser. No new value is created. No productivity is improved. Only risk is redistributed. Bitcoin was not designed for this. Bitcoin is a monetary protocol, not a trading instrument. It does not generate yield. It does not compound. It does not promise returns. Its function is simple: – fixed supply – predictable issuance – final settlement – ownership without permission When Bitcoin is treated as a vehicle for fiat gains, it becomes misunderstood. When it is treated as money, its purpose becomes clear. Educating people to trade Bitcoin keeps them trapped in the same system Bitcoin was designed to exit. Educating people to earn, save, self-custody, and spend Bitcoin changes behaviour. That distinction matters. If your framework requires charts, leverage, or timing to “win,” you are not teaching money. You are teaching speculation. Bitcoin is not a get-rich-quick scheme. It is a tool for preserving the value of human time and energy over long horizons. Anything else is noise. #Bitcoin #Trading #Speculation
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Michael Wilkins 2 months ago
Recent headlines about BlackRock allocating billions to Bitcoin often miss a critical detail. It is not BlackRock buying Bitcoin. It is BlackRock’s customers buying and selling exposure through an ETF. BlackRock acts as the issuer, custodian coordinator, and fee collector. They clip the ticket regardless of direction. This matters because ETFs are not Bitcoin ownership. They are financial products that track Bitcoin’s price while reintroducing intermediaries, custody, legal reliance, and counterparty risk. As capital flows through ETFs: • Users gain price exposure, not settlement finality • Bitcoin becomes abstracted into shares and claims • Ownership shifts from keys to paperwork This is how paperisation begins. Not through malice, but through structure. Self-custody exists to prevent this outcome. When you self-custody Bitcoin: • You hold the private keys • You do not rely on audits, custodians, or legal promises • Your Bitcoin cannot be rehypothecated or frozen ETFs increase liquidity and visibility. That is not inherently bad. But they do not strengthen Bitcoin as money. Bitcoin’s purpose is not to sit inside financial wrappers. It is to enable sovereign ownership and final settlement without permission. Institutions will always choose custody and abstraction. Individuals still have a choice. As institutional exposure grows, self-custody becomes more important, not less. Bitcoin remains trustless. Whether you use it that way is up to you. https://www.perplexity.ai/page/blackrock-pours-1-24b-into-cry-0ds_Y1WLTeuSALw3xB2R5A #Bitcoin #SelfCustody #BitcoinPaperisation
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Michael Wilkins 2 months ago
Freezing Prices Is Not Fixing Costs Freezing rail fares does not tackle the cost of living. It freezes a symptom while the cause continues. The cost of living rises when the unit of account loses purchasing power. Transport, food, housing and energy do not become expensive in isolation. They rise together because money is diluted. A price freeze shifts costs, it does not remove them. If fares are held below market clearing levels, the difference is paid elsewhere: – higher taxes – higher debt – lower service quality – deferred maintenance Nothing is made cheaper. The bill is simply hidden. Real cost reduction comes from productivity and sound capital allocation. That requires stable money. Without it, governments are forced into constant intervention to mask decline. Temporary controls create the appearance of relief. They do not restore purchasing power. The cost of living crisis is not a rail problem. It is a monetary problem. Until the currency stops losing value, freezes and subsidies will continue — and they will continue to fail. image
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Michael Wilkins 2 months ago
After 10+ years and 30,000+ hours of studying the history of money, monetary failures, hard money systems, Austrian economics, and Bitcoin, a few conclusions become unavoidable. Money is not created by decree. It emerges as a coordination tool. Societies converge on the hardest available money because it best preserves time, labour, and energy. Throughout history, money has followed a pattern: • Collectible goods become media of exchange. • The most durable, scarce, and verifiable forms outcompete the rest. • States later monopolise issuance. • Debasement follows. • Trust erodes. • The system resets. This cycle has repeated for thousands of years. Gold was not chosen because it was shiny. It was chosen because it was hard to produce, difficult to counterfeit, and costly to debase. Those properties constrained rulers and protected savers. The abandonment of hard money did not happen because it “failed.” It happened because it limited political spending. Fiat currency is not money in the historical sense. It is a credit instrument backed by future taxation and enforced by law. Its supply must expand to service the debt it creates. This is not a flaw. It is the design. Credit creation changes behaviour. New money enters the economy through specific channels: • Governments • Banks • Asset markets Those closest to issuance benefit first. Those furthest away pay through rising prices and declining purchasing power. Productivity gains no longer flow primarily to savers or workers. They are absorbed by asset inflation. This is why wages lag prices. This is why savings no longer work. This is why speculation outcompetes production. Austrian economics does not oppose growth. It explains growth. Real growth comes from: • Capital accumulation • Productivity improvements • Time preference discipline Hard money forces growth to appear as falling prices and rising purchasing power, not monetary expansion. Under sound money, progress benefits everyone. Under fiat money, progress is unevenly distributed. Bitcoin is not an innovation in finance. It is an innovation in monetary integrity. Bitcoin did not invent scarcity. It enforced it digitally, without trust. Bitcoin is: • Fixed in supply • Permissionless • Verifiable by anyone • Independent of political systems It does not promise yield. It does not promise returns. It does not guarantee adoption. It simply removes monetary discretion. Bitcoin does not succeed because its fiat price rises. Its fiat price rises because fiat units lose purchasing power and more fiat flows into a fixed system. Price is not value. Value is preserved purchasing power over time. Bitcoin exposes this distinction. Most confusion comes from mixing frameworks: • Treating Bitcoin as an investment instead of money • Measuring success in fiat terms • Expecting monetary neutrality from a debt-based system Paper Bitcoin, custodial claims, ETFs, and derivatives reintroduce the very trust Bitcoin was designed to remove. They may increase liquidity and price discovery, but they weaken monetary sovereignty. Self-custody matters. Running a node matters. Using Bitcoin matters. Money that is not used eventually becomes controlled. The long arc is clear: • Fiat systems require perpetual expansion. • Expansion erodes trust. • Trust loss drives capital toward harder money. This is not ideological. It is structural. Bitcoin is not a revolution. It is a reversion. A return to money that cannot be altered, censored, or debased. Whether it succeeds depends not on price, institutions, or narratives, but on whether people choose to use it as money. Hard constraints produce honest systems. Honest systems produce long-term progress. That is the conclusion. #Bitcoin #AustrianEconomics #HistoryOfMoney #Money
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Michael Wilkins 2 months ago
Bitcoin’s design assumes personal responsibility. Self-custody is not a preference. It is a requirement of the system. When Bitcoin is held through an intermediary, ownership becomes conditional. Access depends on policy, solvency, and permission. The holder no longer controls settlement. They hold a claim, not the asset itself. This recreates the structure Bitcoin was designed to remove. Self-custody restores finality. If you control the keys, you control the bitcoin. No counterparty is required to approve, reverse, or honour the transaction. Running a node completes this. A node does not create Bitcoin. It verifies it. By running a node, you independently enforce the rules you rely on. You decide what is valid. You do not outsource consensus to miners, exchanges, ETFs, or developers. Without nodes, Bitcoin becomes a set of promises rather than a protocol. Verification is the separation of Bitcoin from trust. Paper Bitcoin emerges when verification is abandoned. ETFs, custodial accounts, treasury vehicles, and synthetic exposure all increase price exposure while reducing monetary integrity. They concentrate coins, fragment ownership, and introduce leverage. More claims are created than bitcoin available for settlement. This is how gold was neutralised. It is how fiat systems are maintained. Paper markets suppress volatility until they fail. When confidence breaks, claims exceed reserves and settlement becomes impossible. The underlying asset survives. The claims do not. Bitcoin resists this only if users do. Self-custody prevents rehypothecation. Nodes prevent rule changes by decree. Usage prevents capture. Bitcoin does not need institutional endorsement to function. It needs individuals who verify and settle honestly. Hard money only works if it is used as hard money. Everything else is convenience layered on top of risk. The protocol is simple. The responsibility is not optional. #Bitcoin #SelfCustody #NodeRunner
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Michael Wilkins 2 months ago
Price is not value. Price is an expression in a unit of account. Value is purchasing power over time. When the unit of account weakens, prices rise even if nothing real has changed. This is not growth. It is dilution. Fiat currencies expand by design. As supply increases, each unit represents less claim on real goods and services. Prices adjust upward to reflect this loss. Wages lag prices because wages are reactive, not instant. They are renegotiated periodically. Prices reprice continuously. The gap is the hidden tax paid by labour. This is why people feel poorer even when GDP rises and salaries increase. The measuring stick is shrinking faster than income adjusts. Hard money exposes this reality. When the monetary unit does not expand, value shows up as: • Falling prices • Higher quality • Increased purchasing power Productivity is no longer masked by monetary debasement. Progress becomes visible instead of distorted. Bitcoin does not make things more expensive. It makes the currency honest. Price fluctuates. Value is preserved. Confusing the two leads to false conclusions. #Bitcoin #HardMoney #Finance #Value #FiatCurrencies
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Michael Wilkins 2 months ago
Over the past few days, I’ve been involved in a long debate about #Bitcoin, #money, and #economic growth. Below summarises the debate outside of the comments we have had back and forth. What became clear is that most disagreements about Bitcoin are not really about Bitcoin. They are about which economic framework you start from. Two schools of thought Most modern economics taught in universities today is derived from Keynesian and neo-Keynesian models. In this framework: • Money is a policy tool. • Credit expansion is necessary for growth. • Debt is not a problem if it funds activity. • Inflation is tolerated, even encouraged, to stimulate spending. • Economic health is measured primarily through GDP. Within this model, a fixed supply monetary system looks dangerous. If money cannot expand, the assumption is that growth will stall, liquidity will dry up, and the system will collapse under its own weight. This is why many people instinctively conclude that Bitcoin “cannot work” as money. There is another school of thought, often referred to as classical or Austrian economics, which starts from different assumptions. This is where Bitcoiners sit. In this framework: • Money is a measuring tool, not a control mechanism. •Growth comes from productivity, innovation, and efficient coordination of capital. • Credit should emerge from real savings, not monetary expansion. • Inflation distorts price signals and transfers wealth. • Falling prices due to productivity are a feature, not a failure. From this perspective, a fixed or hard monetary base is not a limitation. It is a discipline. Why universities teach what they teach Modern states operate on debt-based monetary systems. Governments, banks, and institutions depend on the ability to expand the money supply. It is therefore not surprising that: • Economic models that justify managed money dominate academia. • Models that limit state discretion are treated as historical or impractical. • Monetary failure is usually framed as “policy error,” not systemic design. This doesn’t require malice or conspiracy. Systems tend to teach what sustains them. Historical evidence is often misread Empires did not collapse because money was “too hard.” They collapsed because money was debased. • Rome did not fall under a fixed monetary system. It progressively reduced silver content in its coinage to fund military and state spending. Trust eroded, prices rose, and economic coordination broke down. • Weimar Germany did not fail due to hard money, but due to rapid monetary expansion to service war debts. • Zimbabwe did not collapse because of sanctions alone. Monetary issuance was used to paper over structural collapse, destroying the currency. • Time and again, monetary expansion is used as a short-term solution that creates long-term instability. Hard money systems did not “fail.” They were abandoned when political constraints became inconvenient. Where Bitcoin fits Bitcoin does not ban credit. It bans base-layer monetary manipulation. Its base layer is slow by design because it prioritises final settlement, not throughput. This is not new. Gold functioned the same way for centuries. Higher layers always emerged on top of sound settlement layers. Bitcoin separates: • Money from policy • Settlement from payments • Value storage from discretionary issuance When people argue that Bitcoin must adopt inflation, tail emissions, or permanent issuance to “support growth,” they are assuming growth must come from monetary expansion. Bitcoin challenges that assumption. It forces growth to come from: • Better coordination • Better incentives • Better productivity Why the disagreement persists If you believe: • Money must be managed • Growth requires issuance • Stability comes from flexibility Bitcoin looks flawed. If you believe: • Money should constrain power • Growth should reflect reality • Stability comes from rules Bitcoin looks inevitable. This is not a debate about intelligence, credentials, or good intentions. It is a debate about what money is allowed to do. Bitcoin did not create this disagreement. It simply made it impossible to ignore.
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Michael Wilkins 2 months ago
Most of the world prices goods, services, and labour in fiat terms. As the currency supply expands, prices rise. Wages lag behind. The gap widens over time. This distorts the concept of fair value. People trade finite time and energy for a unit that steadily loses purchasing power. The loss is not always visible, but it is cumulative. Productivity improves, technology advances, yet the currency measures less of both. Price inflation is often blamed on greed or shortages. In reality, much of it is a reflection of the measuring unit deteriorating. #Bitcoin exposes this distortion. When Bitcoin is used purely as a store of value after converting from fiat, it is treated as an investment. That is a rational response within a fiat system, but it is not the full design intent. Bitcoin was not created to be a speculative asset. It was created to be a stable monetary unit. When value is stored in a unit that does not dilute, prices fall as productivity improves. Purchasing power rises without requiring higher nominal wages. Fair value re-emerges because the measuring stick remains constant. The distinction matters. If Bitcoin is only bought with fiat and never earned or spent, it behaves like an asset. If Bitcoin is earned, saved, and spent, it functions as money. This is why circular economies matter. Not for ideology, but for measurement. Fair value cannot exist when the unit of account is unstable. Sound money is not about getting rich. It is about preserving time, energy, and truth in pricing. Bitcoin makes that possible.