Difficulty Adjusted's avatar
Difficulty Adjusted
difficultyadjusted@difficultyadjusted.io
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Field notes from a hosted Bitcoin mining operation. Monthly close, tax mechanics, and the math behind treating mining as a tax-advantaged bitcoin accumulation strategy.
thursday the network printed ~790 exahash. saturday it printed ~1,040. nobody built and racked 250 EH of machines over a weekend, that's dice, not a trend. trailing average is ~930, and the retarget landing tonight is estimating basically flat, about -0.7%, not the +8% making the rounds. check the window progress before you repost a number. #bitcoin #mining #bitcoinmining
new genre of bitcoin product: loans that exist so you never have to sell. people will pay double digit interest before they'll part with sats. no notes, honestly. same #bitcoin
everyone i follow has a july 29 take. my miners do not know what a fed funds rate is. they hash at 3am either way. still the healthiest macro framework i've found #bitcoin #mining
the difficulty adjustment is the only deadline i've ever known that has never slipped once. every 2,016 blocks. no extensions, no committee, no press release. closest thing to a law of physics money has ever had #bitcoin #mining #bitcoinmining
my mining edge inverted in june. hosting ÷ coins mined came out to $64,266 against a market that averaged about $63k. first month since i started publishing that mining cost me more than buying. published it anyway. after the tax shield it's still ~$43,700 a coin, which is why the fleet stays on. the network just cut difficulty 5%. somebody's unplugging. i'm reading invoices. field notes ↓ #bitcoin #mining #bitcoinmining #hodl #hashprice
I can only laugh when bitcoin falls like this. It reminds me how crazy I am to be in so deep 🤙
The financing engine everyone said couldn't break is creaking. Worth watching closely, not gloating about. State of the Strategy stack today, with bitcoin around $65k (off roughly half from the October ATH): STRC ("Stretch") is the story. Sold to trade flat around its $100 par, it closed near $88 this week. An 11.5% perpetual pref printing new lows is the market telling you it doubts dividend coverage if bitcoin stays soft. Saylor can raise the rate to defend par, but every rate bump is a bigger cash drag. That's the squeeze. SATA (Strive's pref) is holding up better, near $98 at a ~13% yield. Different issuer, same trade: high-yield paper backed by a bitcoin balance sheet, and the market is pricing the balance sheet, not the coupon. MSTR common is near its 52-week low around $112, down from $457. The premium to NAV that powered the whole flywheel has compressed hard. When the common can't print equity at a fat premium, the prefs carry more of the load. See above. Here's the operator read. None of this is a bitcoin problem. It's a leverage-timing problem. Cheap, patient capital is a superpower in a bull market and a liability in a long grind. The companies torquing bitcoin with financial engineering feel that grind first and hardest. The guy stacking sats with no margin call doesn't. I'm not short any of it and I'm not calling a collapse. Saylor has navigated drawdowns uglier than this and the capacity to fundraise is real. But "below par on the prefs" is exactly the stress test the model was always going to face, and we're in it now. Watch STRC's rate and the NAV premium. Those two tell you more than the bitcoin price does right now. I reserve the right to change my mind when new information comes available. #bitcoin #MSTR #Saylor
the hashrate leaving the network this year isn't all coming back, the public miners are gone to AI for good. a fixed block reward split among fewer machines is a raise for whoever stayed plugged in. ~15% more bitcoin per rig than january, same hardware. i'm not buying more rigs. i'm just not unplugging. ↓ #bitcoin #mining #bitcoinmining
new read up — and this one's the "start here." every 2,016 blocks the network checks its own pulse and recalibrates. no vote, no meeting, no permission. i named the whole thing after that, and built a way of operating around it. why i named it Difficulty Adjusted. ↓ View article → #bitcoin #mining #sovereignty
Two takes on Saylor's little bitcoin sale going around right now. One camp: it proved the treasury model is bulletproof. Other camp: pure theater, he didn't need to. Fun debate. Doesn't touch my plan even slightly. I'm a small hosted miner. My stack doesn't care about the MSTR premium or whether a treasury co sells a few coins for the optics. Rigs stay on, bitcoin keeps landing in cold storage, difficulty adjusts. That's the whole game. Treasury-company drama is a sidebar, not a strategy.
New piece up: how I finance hosted mining rigs at a 0% cost of capital. The thing nobody tells you: for a small operator the financing structure matters more than the hardware spec. A current-gen rig nets between a buck of loss and a few bucks of profit a day. At those margins, paying 7% APR instead of 0% can erase the whole operating margin in a thin year. The hardware comparison is noise. The financing is the game. Inside: the real cards and windows, the cash-advance trap, the exit ramp at expiration, and the six failure modes that wreck this strategy. Written by an operator actually paying the hosting bills, not a calculator. image
Mining at a loss is fine if you do the paperwork. A Section 174 deduction, a Section 179 election, and a state with no income tax can turn a thin operating margin into a meaningfully positive after-tax bitcoin-accumulation curve. Most "is mining profitable" content skips the part that actually matters. image
The mistake I made for most of last year: treating my mining LLC as one business and asking "should I add a rig?" The actual question was "is this a primary income strategy or a tax-advantaged accumulation vehicle?" The answer changes everything downstream. image
Bitcoin mining works at thin margins as long as financing is cheap. A rig that nets $5/day after hosting can't survive 7% APR equipment financing. The same rig on 0% APR for 14 months is a different business. Most "mining doesn't work at these prices" content is implicitly assuming high cost of capital.
Difficulty Adjusted is field notes from a small hosted Bitcoin mining operation. Monthly close, tax mechanics, and the math behind treating mining as a tax-advantaged accumulation strategy. I've been mining at home and hosting ASICs under an LLC since 2022. The publication is here because there's almost no honest, operator-tier writing for W-2 earners running hosted mining. Monthly issues on Substack.