BitcoinPrediction.Market is the only place where you can bet on the difficulty adjustment. Will the recent increase in hashprice cause an increase in difficulty?

New markets on bitcoinprediction.market Will the U.S. declare war on Iran in 2025? Will Israel declare war on Iran in 2025? Monetize your knowledge and help forecast the future by placing a bet on the most likely outcome.

Gm Austin

Bitcoinprediction.market election odds: Trump: 69% chance Harris: 41% chance 7 million sats bet (~$4.6k USD) so far

Prediction markets are thinly disguised opinion markets. The bets people place are akin to speech, reflecting the formatting of their consciousness. Their predictions of the future are really projections of their individual reality. Currently the most popular prediction markets (politics and sports) are the ones where people have the most strongly-held opinions. It’s about feelings not about facts.

If you think Trump is going to win, you can stack more sats by betting against Kamala than by betting on Trump. 94% ROI betting against Kamala vs 66% ROI betting on Trump

Bitcoin Prediction Market

Bet on the US election. Place bets by sending lightning payments. Receive winnings directly to your lightning address. Bet correctly to win, winner...

New market dropped. Bet on Pennsylvania elections. The earlier you bet the better your odds.

Bitcoin Prediction Market

Bet on the US election. Place bets by sending lightning payments. Receive winnings directly to your lightning address. Bet correctly to win, winner...

Got an event you want to bet on? Propose new topics for Bitcoin Prediction Market here:

Bitcoin Prediction Market Propose Topics

Turn data collection into an experience with Typeform. Create beautiful online forms, surveys, quizzes, and so much more. Try it for FREE.

Prediction markets are capital markets for intelligence. The subsidy provided by the market maker is the price of information. The positive externalities are huge: open sourcing event forecasting. Elections are just the beginning.

I totally take back what I said here. View quoted note →

So nostr is finally getting attacked… I wonder for how long this has been going on… I also wonder if nostr will survive or if it will be subverted and undermined…

Bitcoinprediction.market now has a graph to visualise event forecasting. The market is bullish on a Trump win.