📊 Current Prices & Recent Trend As of today (Dec. 31, 2025): Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around ~$87k – $89k — below recent highs near ~$126k, and reflecting a clear downtrend from October into December.  Ethereum (ETH) is around ~$2.9k–$3.0k, also down from its 2025 peaks and showing weakness compared to BTC at times.  Solana (SOL) is in the ~$120 – $130 range, consolidating lower and lagging in relative strength compared to BTC/ETH.  All three assets have been declining over the past few months (particularly since the October 2025 tops), consistent with a macro risk-off phase in late 2025. ⸻ 📈 Context for Macro Outlook Prices are down over the past ~80 days — tracks with real market behavior: BTC Corrects from ~$126k October peak to sub-$90k by year-end (~30%+ drawdown).  ETH Also down materially as broader risk sentiment wanes.  SOL More volatile and has experienced an even larger drawdown percentage than BTC.  This is exactly the pullback phase of a broader cycle where liquidity and macro risk-sentiment influence asset pricing, aligning with a late-cycle consolidation/reversion rather than a fundamental breakup. ⸻ 📉 Interpretation of This Price Weakness This price behavior reflects macroeconomic conditions late in 2025: ✔ Weak risk appetite Crypto often leads risk assets lower during periods of growth-to-contraction transitions in macro indicators, including PMI and liquidity. ✔ Institutional repositioning ETF flows and institutional wallets can reduce exposure in December while waiting for clearer policy signals. ✔ Macro liquidity ebb Despite structural support, short-term liquidity constraints & real yields have pressured risk assets, including crypto. All of this fits the macro environment we’re in, the crypto market turns with liquidity and yield regimes, especially in late-cycle reflexivity phases. ⸻ My projections, potential bottom range of ~55–75k for BTC before cycle lows, factors in real price movement and macro realities as of today Dec. 31, 2025. Prices are not isolated from macro; they are expressions of it. ⸻ 📈 Quick Calibration of What This Means for the Outlook Because BTC, ETH, and SOL have: failed to sustain October 2025 highs corrected significantly over the 80–90 days entered a consolidation drawdown phase This reinforces the macro regime assumption: Temporary risk aversion + tightening real yields → weak crypto sentiment followed by Liquidity inflection + cyclical rebound → better performance ahead But that macro regime position must also align with: • PMI improvement • real yield decline • rate cut expectations • liquidity expansion If these macro signals fail to materialize, that would shift the forecast.

Every year I think “they can’t turn this year into glasses.” Every year I am proven wrong.

Happy New Year Everyone!

How are we all doing today?

Anyone wanna join me on a weight loss journey? I’m starting Keto

Social Capital put $10M into Groq’s seed round in April 2017 when the company was worth roughly $30M post-money. That single check bought about 33% of the company. Then they doubled down with $52.3M in a 2018 convertible note. Total deployed: $62.3M. Here’s where it gets interesting. Groq raised $300M at $1.1B in 2021, then $640M at $2.8B in 2024, then $750M at $6.9B in September 2025. Each round diluted early investors. But Social Capital had board seats and likely maintained some pro-rata through the convertible. Conservative math: They own somewhere between 15-20% of Groq today. At $20B, that’s $3B to $4B in value. $62M in. $3-4B out. That’s a 50-65x return in 8 years. For context, this single investment is worth more than Social Capital’s entire fund size in 2015 ($1.1B). One bet. Eight years. 50x. The timing is the wildest part. Chamath invested in custom AI chips in 2017, years before ChatGPT made inference compute a thing. He sat on the board until 2021, then stepped back right as the company was entering its growth phase. Now Nvidia is paying $20B in cash because they need Groq’s LPU architecture for inference at scale. Jensen is essentially writing Chamath a check for being early on the inference bottleneck.

Merry Christmas

Sam Altman: “Okay OpenAi I need you to make ChatGPT better.” OpenAI employees: “Okay Gemini… how do we make ChatGPT better?”

Merry Christmas everyone

Merry Christmas everyone

Merry Christmas from the Redacted House

Boomers holding gold and silver laughing at Crypto holders in 2025

Merry Christmas Eve everyone

🚨 BITCOIN IS BEING HELD IN PLACE, AND IT’S ABOUT TO BREAK If you’re wondering why BTC keeps hovering around $85k-$90k no matter how many people try to push it… I have the answer for you. And it likely resolves within the next ~72 hours. Here’s what’s actually going on: Bitcoin is sitting right on a critical options flip level around $88k ABOVE THAT LEVEL: Market makers are effectively forced to sell into green cancles and buy dips. Any rally is limited and the price goes right back to the middle. BELOW THAT LEVEL: The behavior changes completely, selling pressure feeds on itself and volatility grows instead of getting absorbed. That’s why price keeps getting pulled back to the same area over and over again. It’s not because of traders. Now look at why $90K keeps rejecting. There’s a massive concentration of call options sitting at $90,000. Dealers are short those calls. Every time price pushes toward that level, they hedge by selling spot BTC. So what looks like “sell pressure” is really forced supply showing up exactly where traders expect momentum. That’s why every $90K attempt fails miserably. On the downside, $85K is doing the opposite. There’s heavy put positioning there. As price drops, dealers hedge by buying spot. That’s why dips are bought immediately. This creates a tight range that feels completely normal on the surface, but it’s not stable at all. The reason this matters now is because of timing. A large chunk of option exposure will expire on DECEMBER 26, the day after christmas. Roughly three quarters of the current gamma profile disappears at expiry. Once we get past December 26, that pressure will be completely GONE. Not because people suddenly change their minds, but because the forces pinning price in place are gone.