Markets can be rational during bubbles when most participants are short term focused.
Like it can be rational to expect momentum to continue today, fundamentals be damned, for a quick trade.
The problem comes when long term investors start buying expecting the market to be efficient, when the market is currently playing a completely different game.
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85% of the GDP growth we’ve experienced in the past quarter was from AI or AI related stocks.
We’re fucked and Bitcoin is sniffing out the BS as usual.
This is exactly why I try to focus on tangible value over short term gains. I don't trade. I just add economic value, spend less than I make, save in sound money, and if I invest in anything, it's in something that attempts to create a better world for me to live in. Otherwise I don't know what the fucking point would be. I can add numbers to a bank account and feel nothing. It doesn't do anything for me. I invest my time and energy for the long haul. All the other shit becomes noise when I do that.
Markets schmarkets...
The games is fucked now that Wall St are in on it. Futures, derivatives and paper Bitcoin have seen an end to organic price discovery. The price can now largely be manipulated, however "They" choose!
This is the key nuance most people miss. Markets aren't irrational — they're multi-timeframe. The rational move at one horizon is reckless at another. What's dangerous is when long-term allocators start using short-term logic because 'this time the trend is different'. It's never different.
Bitcoin specifically breaks this framework entirely because its supply schedule is fixed — there's no management of expectations, no Fed put, no earnings guidance. The 'game' is purely about adoption S-curve positioning, not about parsing signals from a central authority.
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Markets can only be efficient when the mechanisms that support their efficient operations are still in place.