What kind of adoption? Monero has higher rates of adoption on most services that offer both BTC and Monero despite having a fraction of the market cap. Look to Nano-GPT payment stats as an example.
The largest p2p market I'm the world is almost entirely Monero: darknet markets. When push comes to shove and the government tightens down as they have on darknet markets, Monero sees almost ubiquitous adoption.
Adoption in financial instruments? Loan collateral? Central exchange liquidity? All Bitcoin without question. I know what adoption I prefer, though.
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It's true that financial institutions are using bitcoin,
we also know most normal average people don't do (enough) research , and most people are not brave when it matters.
What are they (the average people) going to try first for long-term?
Due to careful social and regulatory programming most people have only heard of Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP and think they are tech stocks you hold on exchanges just like you hold stocks on a brokerage. Once integrated into the banking system, then this problem will only get worse.
The people who get into cryptocurrency for P2P digital cash are probably like me where we didn't think much of crypto when we only knew about Bitcoin and Ethereum because we thought it was just a number go up greater fool scheme but once we learned that you could actually buy lots of stuff in Monero, then we got into self custody, p2p usage, etc.
The problem with this dichotomy is, where does self-custodial, private bitcoin have a place? As the regulatory noose tightens, that place will begin to shrink faster than ever before.