Oil Futures (Dec 2026) around $70 per barrel is a harbinger of economic calamity. If oil spikes above $150-$170 for the next couple of months, the economy goes in the toilet and oil falls back to pre war levels and below.
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Ras Laffen was bombed. Multiple years of repairs expected before it gets back to full capacity. For a ton of Americans their electric and heat depend on natural gas. Oil isn't the only factor.