Renewables don’t look so hot without government subsidies. Case-by-case exceptions apply but without the subsidies the price would be much higher and there would be less exceptions.

Oil Futures (Dec 2026) around $70 per barrel is a harbinger of economic calamity. If oil spikes above $150-$170 for the next couple of months, the economy goes in the toilet and oil falls back to pre war levels and below.

Disagree completely. First of all, the US military is basically a massive subsidy to the oil industry that doesn't get accounted for as energy expense, but it is. Capex vs opex and then lifetime total needs to be split to have a fair conversation. Capex is higher for renewables for some uses but opex and total lifetime expenditure are already lower. Any opex discrepancy now, say buying solar vs natgas electric from the power company, is an illusion caused by feeding fossil fuels into 30 year old plants. The fossil fuel had a 30yr head start amortizing the capex. Head to head today starting from 0 the numbers look different. Add to that doubling or more the cost of oil and natgas over the next couple of years because of the destruction of the war and the balance gets tipped even farther. One of the world's largest natgas facilities is offline because it was bombed with a multi year horizon to get it back assuming all fighting stops tomorrow. That leaves a situation where a lot of power uses simply will not have the option to use fossil fuels at any cost. Money can't buy what doesn't exist to be bought.

Ras Laffen was bombed. Multiple years of repairs expected before it gets back to full capacity. For a ton of Americans their electric and heat depend on natural gas. Oil isn't the only factor.

Absolutely everyone I know, who doesn't have solar panels on their roof and an e-car is like OMG, I NEED TO GET SOLAR PANELS AND AN E-CAR. And even with fossil fuels, the Europeans are like... I think we need to drill. 😐

America just ended a 30% tax credit for solar and I was thinking about how that would affect solar companies. Of course it only took a few months to raise the price of fossil fuels by more than 30% tipping the scales ever further in favor of renewables. I'm not a self sufficient and renewable as I want to be, but I'm making progress not burying my head in the sand.

I totally agree with everything you just said. I’m in the oil business and Ras Laffen is one of the biggest GTL plants in the world. The impact on Nitrogen Fertilizer, Urea, Helium, Group 3 Lubricants is gigantic. Double digit % of world output in these 4 products alone. I’m suggesting that the oil futures market is pricing in global depression. If you see March 2027 below December 2026 - that’s real bad. Add in AI job losses, the private credit bust that is just around the corner, and $40 trillion US debt all before the end of the year. If your goal was to put 30% of the population on welfare this year and eliminate10% of the population in 5 years, this is exactly how you would do it. Population reduction is the new green revolution.

Horse shoe theory for dino juice. If the price rises too fast the economy will crash reducing demand and price. I'm what you might call a heretic green. Absolutely pro energy use, energy use creates human well-being. The green part is that I want to get that energy from not fossil fuels.